Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...

In many-to-many matching markets, various concepts have been introduced to analyze stability. Most of these concepts are not straightforward to interpret. For instance, stability blocks may make members of a blocking coalition worse off. This paper argues that the differences between stability...

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate...

This paper studies household consumption behavior when saving motives differ due to preference or income risk heterogeneity. I show that self-insurance operates along two margins: a standard liquidity margin determined by the level of current resources and an intertemporal margin governed by...

Heterogeneous search costs enable price discrimination, which I study in the canonical Wolinsky (1986) sequential search setting. Firms observe a public signal of a consumer's search cost before posting a personalized price. The welfare effects of search-cost-based price discrimination depend on...

The literature on derivative pricing in illiquid markets has mostly focused on computing optimal hedging controls, but empirical microstructure studies show that large order flow generates persistent and predictable price effects. Therefore, these controls can themselves induce endogenous market...

The tax and transfer system partially insures households against individual income risk. We build a framework to assess the size and (welfare) value of this partial insurance, which is based on exploiting distributional differences between household gross income and disposable income. Our...

This paper analyzes a monopoly platform's joint pricing and investment decisions in the canonical two-sided market model of Armstrong (2006). Participants are heterogeneous in outside options and derive both stand-alone benefits from joining the platform, and network benefits from interacting...

We study how idiosyncratic income risk shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of labor and capital income taxation in dynamic general equilibrium models. To this end, we compare a heterogeneous-agent (HA) model with uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity risk and a...

We propose a framework for institutional change in the 'rules-in-equilibrium' tradition and introduce the term institutional incompleteness. Institutions are incomplete when their constituent rules fail to induce behavioural beliefs about the strategies of others and hence fail to achieve an...

In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

We argue that capital misallocation arises endogenously due to incomplete consumption insurance. We model risk-averse entrepreneurs with heterogeneous productivity who face idiosyncratic output shocks and choose how much capital to rent before uncertainty unfolds. We show that incomplete markets...

Governments in low-income countries are increasingly integrating off-grid electricity provision into national electrification strategies, creating novel, decentralized markets for electricity. This paper studies a highly decentralized product that plays an important role in energy access: pay as...

As digital platforms continue to evolve, they facilitate the exchange of information and create opportunities for innovation-driven growth and introduce new challenges for enterprises navigating research and development-driven transformation. In the study, we used the Probit model, IV-Probit...

We study a large market model of dynamic matching with no monetary transfers and a continuum of agents who have to be assigned items at each date. When the social planner can only elicit ordinal agents' preferences, we prove that under a mild regularity assumption, incentive compatible and...

Heterogeneous interconnections, which link regulated electricity markets to liberalised ones, are becoming increasingly important. Several such interconnections are set to be established in the near future especially between European and North African countries (e.g., Tunisia-Italy,...

We analyse the conditions for a particular type of mixed strategy profile to be an equilibrium in a specific buy and sell strategic market game à la Shapley and Shubik (1977), with two goods, using best responses of a player against random bids by the other players. We first identify a...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...

I study tâtonnement processes in a matching market without transfers. In each period, schools set cutoffs, i.e. the preference ranks of the least preferred students they are willing to admit, and students accept their most preferred offers. Cutoffs are adjusted on the basis of demand-supply...

This paper examines the welfare implications of priority service in a frictional search environment with heterogeneous outside options. Priority search facilitates expedited matching with public options in the market by charging a service premium. Our main analysis demonstrates that a...

Priority-based allocation often requires eliminating justified envy, making serial dictatorship (SD) the only non-wasteful direct mechanism with that property. However, SD's outcomes can conflict with the policymaker's objectives. We introduce visible fairness, a framework where fairness is...

We explore to what extent real returns on investment portfolios can be hedged against inflation risk by using existing financial market instruments. We find that inflation-linked bonds offer only limited protection against inflation risk and that nominal debt and stocks play at least comparable...