The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how battlefields are evolving rapidly, with new technologies shaping military strategy and tactics. Increasingly, these new technologies are being provided by startup firms, rather than by established contractors. To incorporate these new firms into the...

Using cross-country data for 167 countries with broad post-World War II coverage and historical extensions to earlier periods, we quantify how deficits, taxes, and civilian spending respond to increases and decreases in military spending. On average, deficit financing dominates: a 1 percent-age...

Why do some economies recover from armed conflict much better than others? We provide evidence that political accountability determines whether post-conflict societies realize the peace dividend. We study Cambodia, where a nationwide landmine clearance campaign created large local potential...

This study revisits the long-standing debate on the guns-versus-butter phenomenon, that spending on military activity crowds out non-military expenditure. By focusing on Africa, we conjecture the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on health expenditure beyond government health...

This note responds to the comments by Garbellini (2026) on the treatment of demand shocks in the Input-Output model in Stamegna et al. (2024). We show that the increase in arms expenditure is correctly identified as an investment shock, while increases in public expenditure on environmental...

Germany is facing a security policy Zeitenwende whose industrial dimension has not yet been sufficiently addressed. The war in Ukraine, rising military threats in Europe, and the long-term underfunding of the German Armed Forces have exposed the limits of existing defence industrial capacity,...

US defence policy is characterised by contradictions that are on display once again in the Trump administration’s latest strategy documents. The reasons for this go far beyond the president’s erratic behaviour. At the core lies the unanswered question of how the United States should deal...

We study the fiscal consequences of large military buildups. To do so, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated central government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and...

• Europe must urgently strengthen its defence capabilities and secure strategic autonomy to avoid vulnerability to external pressures. • The proposal outlines a European Future of Defence Architecture focusing on next generation military technologies and strategic enablers (like AI, cyber,...

The adoption of NATO's new 5% defence spending target reflects shifting US strategic priorities and places heavy demands on European allies. This article assesses whether European NATO members can realistically meet this target, combining evidence on past and projected military spending, fiscal...

• This report is built on an update of the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker, covering the UK, Poland and Germany up to January 2026. We show that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, German military...

Die Koalitionssondierungen haben zu einer Einigung bei der Finanzierung von Infrastruktur und Rüstung geführt. Diese sieht vor, die Schuldengrenze im Grundgesetz bestehen zu lassen und sie zugleich mithilfe von kreditfinanzierten Sondervermögen bzw. Ausnahmeklauseln zu umgehen. Das wirft die...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that...

This paper investigates how an increase in military expenditures affects an economy. It is written in the context of rising geopolitical tensions that have spurred increased military spending in the United States, Europe, and other economic areas. It draws on a large literature in...

The article examines the evolution of the current technological paradigm, based on digital technologies, considering the interaction between civilian and military trajectories, with a focus on the US case. Building on an original political economy framework, the activities of corporations and...

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

Civil wars often erode state sovereignty, as institutions are replaced or co-opted by armed groups that establish informal governance structures. Among these, rebel taxation emerges as a key tool for financing wartime activities and administering territories. We explore whether rebel taxation...

Research background: At the NATO Wales Summit in 2014, European allies agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence.1 However, the break-out of the Russo-Ukrainian war increased EU countries efforts to spend more on military capability not only because of solidarity in the alliance, but also as...

Canada and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are facing higher defence-spending targets in response to growing geopolitical tensions. NATO's 2025 Hague Summit Declaration requires member states to increase their defence spending to five percent of their GDP by 2035....

This study endeavours to investigate the effect of military expenditure on economic growth in ten major countries of the world, which collectively contributed 75.2 per cent to global military expenditure in 2022. The period of study is 30 years, from 1992 to 2022, determined solely based on the...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe - one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put...

Objective: To examine the impact of geopolitical risk on military spending in Poland in the years 1993-2022. Research Design & Methods: Autoregressive distributed lags, error correction, and Granger causality test were used. Findings: Polish budgetary spending on defence is influenced by...

European security is in danger. Despite some successes, overall progress in strengthening defences has been slow. Europeans still face critical shortfalls in areas such as long-range strike, air defence, intelligence and surveillance. Without more coordination, Europeans will waste much of their...

European security is in danger. Despite some successes, overall progress in strengthening defences has been slow. Europeans still face critical shortfalls in areas such as long-range strike, air defence, intelligence and surveillance. Without more coordination, Europeans will waste much of their...

The member states of the European Union are once again arguing about money. More specifically, they are arguing about how much they want to spend on defence, where this money should come from and whether they should spend it jointly. That Europe needs to defend itself better is not in dispute in...

When considering the benefits of a strong United States military, it is natural to think of the military's crucial role in protecting Americans from foreign adversaries and providing security and stability around the world. But safeguarding America's interests at home and abroad offers the...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

Expanding military personnel and expenditure depends on public support and social legitimacy. Crisis events such as 9/11 and the 2014 annexation of Crimea have influenced public attitudes toward military investment, with support intensifying significantly after Russia's full-scale invasion of...

Operational autonomy should be achieved through developing integrated command systems, rather than simply procuring weapons: great powers direct operations. Direct deterrence must be achieved through investments in conventional forces, which can reduce but not replace reliance on US nuclear...