Search Results - subject_exact:"Modellspezifikation"

Model averaging and grid maps for modeling heavy-tailed insurance data

Mothibe, Lira B.; Shongwe, Sandile C. - 2026

This work presents a practical approach to improve risk quantification for heavy-tailed insurance claims through model averaging and grid map visualization, addressing the drawbacks of traditional single "best" model selection commonly used in actuarial and model-fitting literature. This is a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611274

Hybrid modelling using simulation and machine learning in healthcare

Ahmadi, Ali; Fakhimi, Masoud; Magnusson, Carin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015552381

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2026

This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606830

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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting out-of-time credit scoring model risk

Yoshida Jr., Valter T.; Schiozer, Rafael Felipe; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625453

Testing IV validity and LATE interpretation using flexible covariate specifications

Krumme, Anna; Westphal, Matthias - 2026

Building on the testable implications for IV validity underlying local average treatment effect (LATE) estimation, we (i) propose a simple testing procedure that may accommodate high-dimensional covariates and (ii) demonstrate that it can also detect biases arising from misspecified IV...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638105

Bayesian Panel Variable Selection under model uncertainty for high-dimensional data

Pathairat Pastpipatkul; Htwe Ko - 2026

Selecting the relevant covariates in high-dimensional panel data remains a central challenge in applied econometrics. Conventional fixed effects and random effects models are not designed for systematic variable selection under model uncertainty. In addition, many existing models such as LASSO...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640470

A Bayesian learning approach for predictive resilience in engineer-to-order supply chains

Alaoua, Aicha; Karim, Mohammed - 2026

Accurate supplier lead time prediction is critical for maintaining resilience in Engineer-to-Order (EtO) supply chains, characterized by high customization and uncertainty. This study develops a simulation-based predictive framework combining log-normal sensitivity analysis, Internet of Things...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640886

Improved spatial dependence-robust inference via pre-whitening

Conley, Timothy G.; Kelly, Morgan; Kozbur, Damian - 2026

This paper presents a method to improve existing spatial dependence-robust inference procedures for spatial data. Our method involves augmenting a regression specification with functions of locations that reduce spatial correlation in regression scores and serves as a pre-whitener, followed by...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644690

A practical guide for modeling cross-border services trade at the sector level

Ahmad, Saad; Schreiber, Samantha - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650840

An accuracy-level method for robust evaluation in predictive analytics

Agustini, Mety; Fithriasari, Kartika; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi - 2026

Evaluation metrics are essential in selecting the most appropriate predictive model. Conventional metrics such as R-squared, root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) rely on arithmetic averages, making them sensitive to outliers, undefined values, and scale...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652207

Implications of defining exogenous variables in Energy System Modeling with Integrated Assessment Models for transition planning

Fernandez Vazquez, Carlos A. A.; Flores, Francisco; … - 2026

The sustainable transition of energy systems heavily relies on models that provide diverse scopes and applications. This study explores how two modeling approaches can work in tandem and complement each other to provide a more robust framework for analyzing the development of energy systems at...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671403

Model-based calibration of the elasticity of substitution in energy under high flexibility

Baldauf, Thomas; Gils, Hans Christian; Schmugge, Jens; … - 2026

Macroeconomic models of the energy transition depend crucially on elasticity of substitution (EOS) parameters between dirty and clean energy inputs, which are, however, hard to calibrate for future energy systems. Thus, in this paper, we seek determining these values based on a numerical...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671954

Benchmark of likelihood-free inference methods based on neural and optimal transport approaches

Aka, Samira; Kratz, Marie; Naveau, Philippe - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677465

Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061294

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Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Hansen-Jagannathan distance with many assets

Carrasco, Marine; Nokho, Cheikh - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016070843

Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Applied economists routinely compare estimates across specifications, observe that they are "similar," and conclude that their results are "robust." This common procedure makes an implicit inferential claim about the range of estimates, but usually does not account for their joint sampling...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069307

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Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Governing the tradeoff between predictive accuracy and adversarial robustness : an enterprise model risk framework

Kumiega, Andrew; Xu, Ruiqing - 2026

Machine learning models used in financial decision systems create a measurable risk tradeoff between predictive performance and resilience to adversarial manipulation. This study presents a governance framework for managing that tradeoff through stepwise adversarial hardening guided by feature...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087222

Nowcasting World Trade with a Multi-Region Factor Model

Jackson, Chris - 2026

This paper presents a nowcasting model for global trade that allows for regional dynamics and spillovers. World trade growth is driven by common global factors but also regional trends. While existing trade nowcasting models have focused on the former, we allow for the latter using a dynamic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087921

Decarbonization of European Industry: Modelling and Open Science (DEIMOS)

Britto, Anthony; Scharnhorst, Leandra; Kleinebrahm, Max; … - 2026

The DEIMOS project developed and applied two complementary open-source modeling frameworks, FORECAST-Sites Extended and iSTEDS, together with openly accessible industrial datasets. These resources enable transparent and reproducible analysis of industrial decarbonization pathways across sectors,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072674

Modelling mobility trends : update including 2024 ODiN data

Boonstra, Harm Jan; Brakel, Jan A. van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614294

NORA : a microfounded model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway

Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Quaghebeur, Ewoud; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016085546

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NORA : a microfounded model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway

Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Quaghebeur, Ewoud; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

A double-differences approach to inference in regression discontinuity designs with a discrete running variable

Graetz, Georg; Nordin, Mattias - 2026

We present a new approach to nonparametric inference in regression discontinuity designs where the running variable is discrete and may have few support points. The approach is based on an intuitive and comparatively weak identification assumption: In the absence of treatment, the difference in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016092880

An auditable AI agent loop for empirical economics : a case study in forecast combination

Shin, Minchul - 2026 - This version: August 4, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016092610

Model risk in physical risk models

Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Biswas, Siddhartha; Wylie, David - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016092568

Current Expected Credit Losses implementation and model risk in uncertain times : an application to consumer finance

Canals-Cerdá, José J. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670583

One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2025

This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210360

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One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Design-based identification with formula instruments : a review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357823

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Design-based identification with formula instruments : a review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments : A Review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Principled Identification of Structural Dynamic Models

Francis, Neville; Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Tong, Chen - 2026

We take a new perspective on identification in structural dynamic models: rather than imposing restrictions, we optimize an objective. This provides new theoretical insights into traditional Cholesky identification. A correlation-maximizing objective yields an Order- and Scale-Invariant...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593697

Sharing model uncertainty

Hara, Chiaki; Mukerji, Sujoy; Riedel, Frank; Tallon, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059253

A general framework for participatory budgeting with additional constraints

Rey, Simon; Endriss, Ulle; Haan, Ronald de - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189535

Modeling spatial regimes with smooth transitions

Mattsson, Ingrid; Lyhagen, Johan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189541

Advances in statistical modelling for social science, part 1

2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062904

Platform supply chains 2 : statistical theories and applications

Zou, Jiahui; Hu, Xiaonan; Yan, Xingyu; He, Baihua; … - 2026

Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. Platform-based Supply Chain Prediction Models Driven by Multi-source Heterogeneous Data -- Chapter 3. Model Averaging Fr´echet Regression for Demand Distributions in Supply Chain Decisions -- Chapter 4. RMA: Ranking Based on Model Averaging -- Chapter 5....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676559

Flexible representative democracy : an introduction with binary issues

Abramowitz, Ben; Mattei, Nicholas - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189589

Nobel lecture: creative destruction and economic growth

Howitt, Peter - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062003

Double robust inference for continuous updating GMM

Kleibergen, Frank; Zhan, Zhaoguo - 2025

We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function. The (bounding) χ2 limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is robust to both misspecification and weak identification,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190343

Negative control falsification tests for instrumental variable designs

Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061833

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Negative control falsification tests for instrumental variable designs

Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; … - 2025 - Draft: April 9, 2025

Edition: Draft: April 9, 2025

Book / Working Paper

Negative control falsification tests for instrumental variable designs

Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Beyond one-size-fits-all : designing monetary policy for diverse models and frequencies

Dück, Alexander; Verona, Fabio - 2025

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015181886

Advances in statistical modelling for social science, part 2

2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064101

A new UK overlapping generations model

Brzezinski, Adam; Hantzsche, Arno; Watson, James - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015419611

Nowcasting monthly UK GDP : evidence from bottom-up sectoral modeling with big data methods and forecast combination algorithms

Carbo, Paula Bejarano; Macqueen, Rory; Xylangouras, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420054

Robust misspecified models

Ba, Cuimin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061828

A first course in model validation and model risk management

Schachter, Jonathan; Goldberg, Martin; Maheshwari, … - 2026 - First edition

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620129

Misspecification averse preferences

Maselli, Alfonso - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015424003

On model aggregation and forecast combination

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Maasoumi, Esfandiar - 2025

Policy makers express their views and decisions via the lens of a particular model or theory. But since any model is a highly stylized representation of the unknowable object of interest, all these models are inherently misspecified, and the resulting ambiguity injects uncertainty in the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464615