This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular....

An effective and competitive investment policy requires improvements to the existing tools. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis requires understanding as to how the recovery processes should be implemented. This study aims to develop a model for determining the autonomous expenditure multiplier (AEM)...

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, I find small output multipliers for government consumption but large multipliers for government investment. Importantly, the real exchange rate...

This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction introduced by the German government over the 3Q2020:4Q2020 as a controversial part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective because of limited pass-through to consumer prices and during lockdown....

This research investigates the Ethiopian economy's sectoral linkages. It examines the forward and backward production and total linkages of the industry with the agriculture and service sectors. The import penetration and export intensity of the agriculture-based industry and the manufacturing...

Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Young households increase their consumption after an expansionary shock while prime-age households reduce it,...

This paper presents an estimation of the fiscal multipliers for Saudi Arabia, conducted by applying the local projection (LP) method. It also presents an exploration of the non-linear features of fiscal multipliers. The findings showed that (i) consistent with earlier studies, fiscal multipliers...

This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction introduced by the German government over the 3Q2020:4Q2020 as a controversial part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective because of limited pass-through to consumer prices and during lockdown....

An effective and competitive investment policy requires improvements to the existing tools. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis requires understanding as to how the recovery processes should be implemented. This study aims to develop a model for determining the autonomous expenditure multiplier (AEM)...

This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular....

This article explores the multiplier effects on domestic product, employment, and the external sector of the US economy due to the decline of tourism activities during the pandemic. For this purpose, we use an input-output model and the latest available input-output data from the Organisation...

This paper quantitatively assesses the macroeconomic effects of the recently agreed U.S. bipartisan infrastructure spending bill in a neoclassical growth model. We add to the literature by considering a more detailed tax structure, different types of infrastructure spending and linkages between...

This paper analyzes the effects of time-varying fiscal policy behavior on output and consumption multipliers within a monetary union. The framework is that of a standard New Keynesian twocountry model with distortionary taxes and Calvo price rigidities. I first show that multipliers differ...

We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the...

The aim of the present article is to further develop the line of research initiated by Oreiroet al. (2019) by expanding the database used to calculate the EQI and the EQG, but also to control the effects of variables other than the EQG, such as the amount of capital per worker, over the PCIG and...

We study empirically how various labor market institutions - (i) union density, (ii) unemployment benefit remuneration, and (iii) employment protection - shape fiscal multipliers and output volatility. Our theoretical model highlights that more stringent labor market institutions attenuate both...

To benefit from the newly established EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the Visegrád countries - Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland - have submitted their national recovery plans. The Czech and Slovak plans have already been approved by the EU, paving the way for the up-front...

The size of regional fiscal multipliers determines the efficacy of fiscal stimulus, the costs of fiscal austerity and whether countercyclical fiscal policy is more effective at the federal or local level. This paper studies fiscal multipliers in regions of a monetary union - US states, Eurozone...

We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high...

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effects of international trade on employment, focusing particularly on the case where domestic prices are higher than foreign prices, using Pasinetti’s (1981 and 1993) framework as the basic structure of analysis. It is shown that...

As governments spend unprecedented sums of public money on pandemic related rescue and recovery measures, while humankind is facing mounting long-term challenges - and above all the climate crisis -, the question whether and to what extent COVID-19 recovery programmes contribute to countries'...

We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We...

Interest in fiscal policy has been dynamically improved in the last two decades; the number of research conducted on this topic has significantly increased in recent years. One of the key areas in fiscal policy investigations is the size of the fiscal multiplier, and most studies find...

We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A...

This paper studies how investment tax incentives stimulate output in an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We find that the horizon following a positive shock to investment tax incentives is crucial. The shock is highly expansionary in the long run, with the...

This paper shows that debt-financed fiscal multipliers vary depending on the maturity of debt issued to finance spending. Utilizing state-dependent SVAR models and local projections for post-war US data, we show that a fiscal expansion financed with short term debt increases output more than one...

This paper estimates and analyzes multipliers for tax revenue and public spending for Colombia using structural autoregressive vectors and local projections models. Quarterly series of the central national government between 2000Q1 and 2018Q4 are used. The results show fiscal multipliers that...

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model with the specific aim to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as...

This paper aims to investigate the effects of various fiscal policy measures for small and open economies by analysing the implications of fiscal shocks in the Baltic countries based on data for the period from 1995 to 2018. For this purpose, we have chosen structural VAR estimation methods...