In einer vielbeachteten Serie von Publikationen, die in die hier zitierte Buchveröffentlichung mündete, haben von Weizsäcker und Krämer das Argument vorgetragen, dass der erhebliche Rückgang der Zinsen auf "sichere" Staatsschuld, der sich in den letzten 30 Jahren vollzogen hat, Vorbote...

In einer vielbeachteten Serie von Publikationen, die in die hier zitierte Buchveröffentlichung mündete, haben von Weizsäcker und Krämer das Argument vorgetragen, dass der erhebliche Rückgang der Zinsen auf "sichere" Staatsschuld, der sich in den letzten 30 Jahren vollzogen hat, Vorbote...

This paper evaluates the impact of rare disasters on the natural interest rate and macroeconomic conditions by simulating a nonlinear New-Keynesian model. The model is calibrated using data on natural disasters in OECD countries. From an ex-ante perspective, disaster risk behaves as a negative...

Much of the empirical literature on the natural rate of interest has focused on estimating its path. This paper addresses the question of how exogenous movements in the natural rate of interest affect aggregate activity and inflation in the short and long runs. To this end it proposes a...

About half of professional forecasters report that they use the natural rate of unemployment (u*) to forecast. I show that forecasters' reported use of and estimates of u* are informative about their expectations-formation process, including their use of a Phillips curve. Those who report not...

The economy of the 21st century in the OECD countries and in China, is characterized by a new phenomenon: the structural surplus of private savings in relation to private investment. On the one hand, this excess saving is due to people's increasing inclination to save in light of rising life...

The economy of the 21st century in the OECD countries and in China, is characterized by a new phenomenon: the structural surplus of private savings in relation to private investment. On the one hand, this excess saving is due to people's increasing inclination to save in light of rising life...

We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the...