Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

This paper investigates determinants of convergence in GDP per capita in the euro area and the EU between 1995 and 2021. It finds that the COVID-19 crisis temporarily slowed convergence but the estimated negative impact is significantly smaller than during the global financial crisis. Diverging...

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...

We study the impact of the Indian trade liberalization of 1991 on development at the district level using satellite nighttime lights per capita as a proxy for development. We find that on average trade liberalization increased nighttime lights per capita but there was considerable heterogeneity...

In Europe differences among countries in the overall change in happiness since the early 1980s have been due chiefly to the generosity of welfare state programs - increasing happiness going with increasing generosity and declining happiness with declining generosity. This is the principal...

Ensuring fiscal sustainability in the Member States of the European Union has become an extremely important goal in the current economic context. The formulation of appropriate policies can lead to fiscal consolidation, and the manifestation of a fiscal shock with direct implications on national...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log...

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

Business bribery is a particularly serious problem in the integration era. First, this article investigates the effects of institutional obstacles on firms' bribery in 131 countries classified by nation income groups. Through the appropriate proposal of fitting functions, the relationship...

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current quarterly nowcasts of the gross domestic product in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a...

The present note raises the issue of how best to interpret the World Bank's (WB) much used "constant USD per capita income" concept and similar series. We find that the guide to its construction appearing on the WB data portal to be sketchy. The procedures essentially convert all host-country...

Can fixed exchange rate regimes cause output divergence among member states? We show that such divergence is a long-run equilibrium characteristic of a two-region model with fixed exchange rates, heterogeneous labor markets, and endogenous growth. Under flexible exchange rates, monetary policy...

Iran economy has high energy intensity and CO2 emission compared to other peer countries. This study adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI-I) method to decompose the total energy intensity changes of the Iranian economy by considering inter-fuel substitution impacts of the economic...

This research assessed that how various sources of energy such as renewable, fossil fuel, electricity generation using oil, and hydroelectric sources can influence the level of output in Pakistan. For this purpose, the ARDL bounds test using annual time series data from 1980 to 2019 is used to...

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2020, thereby improving the regional database in Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...

In Theorie und Praxis heißt es oft, dass Steuersenkungen die Wirtschaftsaktivität stimulieren. Kaum etwas hört man jedoch über mögliche kontraktive Rückwirkungen, wenn die öffentlichen Ausgaben mit den ordentlichen Einnahmen schrumpfen. Im Rahmen einer elementaren gesamtwirtschaftlichen...

This study aims to construct a new monthly leading indicator for Tunisian economic activity and to forecast Tunisian quarterly real GDP (RGDP) using several mixed-frequency models. These include a mixed dynamic factor model, unrestricted mixed-data sampling (UMIDAS), and a threepass regression...