This paper argues for a change in government attitudes to their extractive industries: as enclaves useful primarily as revenue sources. This is too narrow a perspective: it fails to recognize the broader economic linkages that are invariably possible. Achieving greater economic impact requires...

This paper analyses the risks facing resource-dependent countries. These include: (i) economic mismanagement (the 'resource curse'); (ii) political mismanagement; (iii) environmental damage (climate change and the destruction of natural capital). It distinguishes 'risk' (which can be addressed...

The extractives industries are highly controversial but remain vitally important in much of the developing world. This paper considers their role in reducing energy poverty and discusses scenarios for the future of the global markets for oil, gas, and metals (emphasizing the increasing...

Companies in the oil, gas, and mining sectors face ever intensifying scrutiny over their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and impacts: from civil society but also from investment funds and other stakeholders with ESG mandates. Companies with good practices-and the paper...

This paper analyses the roles that states, civil society, and international actors can play in tackling the weak governance that sometimes leads to resources being used for private rather than public benefit. It discusses the corruption that bedevils licensing and commodities trading; and oil...

This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the relationships between the intensity of drilling (i.e. investment) for natural gas production, natural gas withdrawals, economic activity and natural gas prices in the United States. The results show that the reaction...

Prices of natural gas, coal, and electricity have risen to the highest level of the last ten years in the last quarter of 2021. It’s possible to express that energy prices in 2021 were much higher, compared to the crisis of 2020’s Covid-19 breakout’s historical descent in the first few...

In 2024, one of the most notable developments in the Azerbaijani economy that demands detailed analysis is the transformation of foreign trade statistics. This article provides an in-depth examination of Azerbaijan's foreign trade landscape in 2024, focusing on its dynamics, structure, and...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The EU Methane Regulation (MER), effective as of August 4, 2024, introduces new obligations for domestically produced and imported crude oil, natural gas, and coal. While compliance with new import requirements primarily falls on European Union (EU) importers, their ability to meet them hinges...

This research models and examines multiple decarbonisation pathways for Europe to 2050, evaluating trade-offs between emissions reductions, costs, and implications for gas demand. Scenarios that front-load decarbonisation to 2040 show prohibitively high marginal abatement costs, while a more...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

Following the Paris Agreement, economic development demands energy services while reducing emissions. This study focuses on non-residential natural gas consumption, which plays a crucial role in the energy transition; however, market-based mechanisms are still in the early stages and have not...

As decarbonisation efforts accelerate globally, the role of large-scale underground storage for energy and climate-related gases – natural gas, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide – is becoming increasingly important. While the demand for natural gas as a transition fuel is expected to rise at...

This Paper analyses the results of the trading data in 2024 for the European traded gas hubs, to give a fuller picture of the recovery after the very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, where the various hubs now stand and, more importantly, to establish whether the Dutch TTF can now credibly be...

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...

Ziel des Projektes war die Analyse der makroökonomischen Effekte unterschiedlicher Szenarien auf der Grundlage der langfristigen Gaslieferverträge von Österreich mit Russland. Die makroökonomischen Effekte der einzelnen Szenarien wurden mit dem WIFO-Modell ADAGIO (A DynAmic Global Input...

PART I MARCO TRENDS -- Status and Prospects of China's Energy Transition -- Carbon Emission Reduction in Urban Agglomerations and Modernization of Harmonious Coexistence between Humans and Nature -- Study in Global Carbon Market Trends -- PART II PETROLEUM -- Outlook of the World Oil Market...

In this paper, we revisit price and volatility transmission among natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets; an important issue was explored in previous work. An update of the results is urgently needed due to the recent enormous price volatility in the commodities, fertilizer, and energy...

Consumers purchase energy in many forms. Sometimes energy goods are consumed directly, for instance, in the form of gasoline used to operate a vehicle, electricity to light a home, or natural gas to heat a home. At other times, the cost of energy is embodied in the prices of goods and services...

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

This note argues that in a situation of an inelastic natural gas supply a restrictive monetary policy in the euro zone could reduce the energy bill and therefore has additional merits. A more hawkish monetary policy may be able to indirectly use monopsony power on the gas market. The welfare...

The global energy transition is happening, but too slowly to limit climate change to acceptable levels, for diverse reasons. Carbon emissions policies and measures focus too little on absolute emission targets and too much on relative measures such as carbon intensity. Focus is needed on early...

Over the last 20 years, Russia has taken several initiatives in order to become an LNG producer of global relevance. Failing to achieve this status for long while being instead a natural gas producer and exporter, Moscow has undertaken an ambitious reform process of the domestic gas system....

Increasing the use of heat pumps is an important measure for reducing carbon emissions in the heating sector as well as natural gas imports. This report uses an electricity sector model to investigate the effects of an accelerated expansion of the heat pump stock on the German electricity sector...

On 11 April 2024 the European Parliament adopted the Renewable and Natural Gases and Hydrogen (RNGH) Directive and the RNGH Regulation - otherwise known as the Decarbonised Gas and Hydrogen Package - and published both documents on 12 April 2024. Once approved by the Council and published in the...

This paper analyses the risks facing resource-dependent countries. These include: (i) economic mismanagement (the 'resource curse'); (ii) political mismanagement; (iii) environmental damage (climate change and the destruction of natural capital). It distinguishes 'risk' (which can be addressed...

This paper analyses the roles that states, civil society, and international actors can play in tackling the weak governance that sometimes leads to resources being used for private rather than public benefit. It discusses the corruption that bedevils licensing and commodities trading; and oil...