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Resolving the dilemma of unemployment rate hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis in India

Singh, Deepti - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664896

The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071261

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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited : The Phillips Curve in COVID Times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Do AI expectations reduce unemployment in the United States? : evidence from an AI attention index

Akyildirim, Erdinc; Bekci, Suzan; Gozgor, Giray - 2026 - This version: May 2, 2026

This paper constructs an AI Attention Index from LexisNexis news coverage and embeds it within an augmented Phillips curve framework. It then examines the relationship between AI attention and unemployment in the United States using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2025. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639130

Labor market effects of COVID-19 shocks

Frenkel, Michael; Stadtmann, Georg; Zimmermann, Lilli - 2023

We study the impact of several Covid-19 related supply shocks. We use a standard wage setting-price setting model of the labor market and analyze the transmission of the shocks to the natural rate of unemployment and production. In a first step, the shocks are analyzed in a general way,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014310081

The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries

Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014423725

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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries

Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries

Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The natural rate of unemployment in Estonia: empirical determinants and a new semi-structuralmodel

Kulikov, Dmitry; Reigl, Nicolas - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014391392

Would Keynesian expansionary policies eliminate the natural rate of unemployment : insights from the Sri Lankan economy

Boughabi, Houssam - 2025

This paper develops a Keynesian stochastic framework to reassess the natural rate hypothesis in the context of the Sri Lankan economy. By embedding fractional Brownian motion to capture persistent inflationary shocks and incorporating nonlinear interactions between unemployment dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015554383

The longer, the weaker? : considering the role of long-term unemployment in an 'Original' Phillips Curve

Romaniello, Davide - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651422

Introduction to the policy forum on the NAIRU

Tsiaplias, Sarantis - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015481631

The NAIRU in Australia

Gross, Isaac - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015481637

Reducing the NAIRU and achieving full employment

Garnaut, Ross; Dawkins, Peter J. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015481638

The devolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy strategy, 2012-24

Ireland, Peter N. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401064

Three theories of natural rate dynamics

Nuño, Galo - 2025 - This version: April 2025

The natural interest rate is the real rate that would prevail in the long-run. The standard view in macroeconomics is that the natural rate depends exclusively on structural factors such as productivity growth and demographics. This paper challenges this view by discussing three alternative, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401982

The unemployment invariance hypothesis in West Virginia : a tale of two indicators

Beverly, Josh; Stewart, Shamar L.; Neill, Clinton L. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672271

Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis

Guisinger, Amy Y.; Jackson, Laura; Owyang, Michael T. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015123068

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Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis

Guisinger, Amy; Jackson, Laura; Owyang, Michael T. - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014581875

Monetary policy, employment shortfalls, and the natural rate hypothesis

Kiley, Michael T. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015054056

The unemployment invariance hypothesis and the implications of added and discouraged worker effects in Latin America

Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel - 2024

This research explores the long-term equilibrium relationship between unemployment and labour force participation rates for six selected countries in Latin America at both aggregate and gender-disaggregated levels. Cointegration analysis focused on the study of time series is used to validate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636663

Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Türkiye

Gökcü, Mert - 2024

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach for estimating potential output and NAIRU developed for Türkiye by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. The model gives more negative estimates of the output gap and smaller estimates of NAIRU in recession periods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014574478

Testing the waters of positive hysteresis : the effects of autonomous demand shocks on inflation, accumulation, and labor in the US economy

Di Domenico, Lorenzo; Gahn, Santiago José; Romaniello, … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014547037

Assessing full employment in Australia

Ballantyne, Alexander; Sharma, Avish; Taylor, Tim - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014526885

Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates

Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014520788

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Navigating by falling stars : monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates

Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Navigating by falling stars : monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates

Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Navigating by falling stars : monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates

Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The job guarantee : MMT's proposal for full employment and price stability

Tcherneva, Pavlina R. - 2024

Orthodox economic theory presents the policy maker with an impossible choice: eradicate unemployment at the cost of undesirable inflation or keep prices stable by maintaining some level of involuntary unemployment. This is the canon, as embodied in the natural rate of unemployment theory and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015135049

Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa

Dadam, Vincent; Viegi, Nicola - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015117819

Full employment : a survey of theory, empirics and policies

Lichtenberger, Andreas; Heimberger, Philipp; Arsenev, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474268

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Full employment : a survey of theory, empirics and policies

Lichtenberger, Andreas; Heimberger, Philipp; Arsenev, … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Another strange non-death : the NAIRU and the ideational foundations of the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework

Arbogast, Tobias; Doorslaer, Hielke van; Vermeiren, Mattias - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015055230

A constant gain learning framework to understand the behaviour of US inflation and unemployment in the 2nd half of 20th century

Raamasrinivas, M.Venkata; Srinivasan, Naveen - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013470993

The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries

Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014469353

The NAIRU, aggregate demand and investment

Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10001687558

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The NAIRU, Aggregate Demand, and Investment

Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The NAIRU, Aggregate Demand and Investment

Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2004

Book / Working Paper

The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... A Curve

Ascari, Guido; Bonomolo, Paolo; Haque, Qazi - 2023

In U.S. data, inflation and output are negatively related in the long run. A Bayesian VAR with stochastic trends generalized to be piecewise linear provides robust reduced-form evidence in favor of a threshold level of trend inflation of around 4%, below which potential output is independent of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014349322

Natural unemployment and activity rates in Italy : flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics

D'Amuri, Francesco; De Philippis, Marta; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014526035

Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa

Viegi, Nicola; Dadam, Vincent - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014313106

Estimating natural rates of unemployment : a primer

Bok, Brandyn; Crump, Richard K.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014391263

Unobserved effects of monetary policy in the Peru's departments output and unemployment

Mendoza Vargas, Oscar Manuel - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625478

Investigation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate of Pakistan

Ghoto, Abbas Ali; Talpur, Mir Ghulam Hyder; Kamboh, … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401083

Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics

Huber, Florian; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2019

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012118184

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Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics

Huber, Florian; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2016

Book / Working Paper

The Godley-Tobin Memorial lecture : beyond the NAIRU

Stirati, Antonella - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472095

The intermittent Phillips curve : finding a stable (but persistence-dependent) Phillips curve model specification

Ashley, Richard A.; Verbrugge, Randal - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472485

The NAIRU under anchored inflation expectations

Ballantyne, Alexander; Cusbert, Tom - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015481632

The active role of the natural rate of unemployment

Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560964

The Fed and the New Economy

Ball, Laurence M.; Tchaidze, Robert - 2022

This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple 'Taylor rule,' while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the 'New Economy' permitted an easing of policy. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013292460

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The Fed and the New Economy

Ball, Laurence M. - 2007

Book / Working Paper

The Fed and the New Economy

Ball, Laurence - 2002

Book / Working Paper

Hysteresis in unemployment : evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013472777

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Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Hysteresis in unemployment : evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021

Book / Working Paper

25 years of excess unemployment in advanced economies : lessons for monetary policy

Gagnon, Joseph E.; Sarsenbayev, Madi - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013455902

Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine

Vdovychenko, Artem - 2022

In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013387313

The effectiveness of government measures in the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic

Jasova, Emilie; Kaderabkova, Bozena - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013203730

Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions

Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022

This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013347209

Long-term unemployment, hysteresis and missing deflation : reconsidering the New-Keynesian approach by means of an 'old' Phillips curve

Romaniello, Davide - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013328609

The US labour market after the COVID-19 recession

Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Soudan, Michel - 2022

The US economy has endured an exceptionally severe recession caused by the measures put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19. This occasional paper assesses the impact of this crisis on key labour market variables, such as (un-) employment, wages and productivity, and highlights the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013264673

Inflation, the Fed, and the Stewardship of Chairman Powell

Webster, Thomas Joseph - 2022

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014029954

The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market

Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, … - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012888519

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The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market

Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, … - 2020

Book / Working Paper