The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

This paper estimates the pass-through of world oil price innovations to Philippine fuel prices and headline CPI, and decomposes total CPI pass-through into a fuelbasket component and a residual non-fuel component. Using a recursive SVAR and 25 years of monthly Department of Energy pump price...

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that...

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crude oil tail risk using the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) framework. We analyzed 2364 daily observations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures spanning 1 January 2015 to 11 December 2023, thereby...

Background: This study revisits whether oil revenue windfalls translate into higher socio-economic welfare in oil-exporting economies and explains why oil price booms often fail to generate sustained gains in real GDP per capita. Methods: Using annual data for ten oil-exporting countries over...

Volatility spillover informs whether the information in one market impacts the information in another. This paper examines whether oil market volatility spills over to the equity markets of selected SAARC countries. The study uses data from February 2013 to September 2019 to obtain updated...

This paper presents the first formal comparison of Value at risk (VaR) forecasting performance across various high-frequency volatility models and conventional benchmarks using daily data in the crude oil futures market. Our analysis reveals the following key findings:(1) High-frequency data...

Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is shaped by shifting regional dynamics in the aftermath of 7 October: the weakening of Iran’s influence across multiple fronts, the Gulf states’ rising...

Research background: Algeria heavily relies on its oil revenues, being one of the leading crude oil producers in Africa and a key member of OPEC. This dependency exposes its economy to the volatility of oil prices in international markets, which can have significant repercussions on its...

This article explores the economic and political implications of de-dollarization in Saudi oil transactions, by focusing on the European Union countries. It examines how an increased euro usage in these transactions influences the real exchange rate of the euro against the dollar and the volume...

The recurrence of international geopolitical events has intensified tensions in global energy supply chains. As a major crude oil consumer, China urgently needs to identify vulnerabilities within its crude oil supply chain (COSC) and implement targeted measures to safeguard national energy...