Search Results - subject_exact:"Output gap"

The survey-based output gap and input gap

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616966

A simple method for estimating multiple natural rates simultaneously : estimation of Japan's potential output and natural foreign exchange rate

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616967

Monetary policy and the output gap in DSGE models for small open economies : insights from the Czech Republic

Šestořád, Tomáš; Vlček, Jan; Musil, Karel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610401

Estimación del crecimiento potencial de la economía española : una revisión metodológica

Domínguez Díaz, Rubén; García-Rodríguez, Marta; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672521

Monetary determinants of house prices in the European countries

Shevchuk, Viktor; Kopych, Roman - 2026

Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate monetary policy effects on the house prices for the panel of 12 Central and Eastern European (CEE-12) countries, 12 small European countries (EU-12) and 5 largest European countries plus the UK (EU-6). Research Design & Methods: A...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061886

Assessing the ability of output gap estimates to forecast inflation in emerging countries

Ndzama, Nwabisa Florence - 2025

We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443298

The economic footprint of natural disasters: demand-side or supply-side forces?

Pozo, Jorge; Rojas, Youel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015568009

Decomposing the output gap : robust univariate and multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filtering with extreme observations

Hungnes, Håvard - 2025

This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components. First, we propose a robust univariate filter that accounts for extreme observations - such as the COVID-19 pandemic - by treating them as additive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557748

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Decomposing the output gap: Robust univariate and multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filtering with extreme observations

Hungnes, Håvard - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Output gap measurement : a production function approach

Rehman, Muhammad; Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder; Hussain, Fayyaz - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015519573

From Okun's Law to fiscal multipliers in France and Italy

Creel, Jérôme; Kaiser, Jonas - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062750

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From Okun's law to fiscal multipliers in France and Italy

Creel, Jérôme; Kaiser, Jonas - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Mind the output gap : the new technocratic politics of EU fiscal rules in Italy

Locatelli, Camilla - 2024

The sovereign debt crisis triggered a process of reforms in European economic governance that pushed for technocratic handling of budget decisions following standardized procedures, target measures, and indicators for fiscal monitoring. This shift, aimed at producing more stability and less...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015081045

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Mind the output gap: The new technocratic politics of EU fiscal rules in Italy

Locatelli, Camilla - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Sectorgap: an R package for consistent economic trend cycle decomposition

Streicher, Sina - 2024

Determining potential output and the output gap-two inherently unobservable variables-is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014457595

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Sectorgap: An R package for consistent economic trend cycle decomposition

Streicher, Sina - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Public debt and economic growth in Arab countries : structural or short-term benefits?

Chafik, Omar; Sirag, Abdalla; Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014505067

Trend-cycle decomposition after COVID

Kamber, Güneş; Morley, James C.; Wong, Benjamin - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014520421

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam

Hung, Trinh Phuc; Vasilev, Aleksandar - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619430

Output gap assessment through Danmarks Nationalbank's production function framework

Bess, Mikkel; Bock, Theodor Justus; Weissert, … - 2026

The output gap is a key guide for economic policymaking and analysis. It is often used to quantify inflationary pressures and thus plays a central role in Danmarks Nationalbank's assessment of the state of the Danish economy. This paper refines Danmarks Nationalbank's existing production...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588366

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam

Hung, Trinh Phuc; Vasilev, Aleksandar - 2026

This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 - 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604707

PFR Fundamentals : Estimating Potential Fiscal Savings

Herrera, Santiago; Isaka, Hironobu - 2026

This Note describes methods for estimating potential fiscal savings across five spending categories—the wage bill, pension payments, capital spending, purchases of goods and services, and social protection spending. The primary methodology compares a country’s spending levels to specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628247

Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment

Chernoff, Alex; Hajzler, Christopher; Houle, Stéphanie; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647201

Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026

De Munnik, Daniel; Hess, Kristina; Muiruri, Walter; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647202

Finance, asset prices, and the business cycle : evidence on the reliability of real-time output gap estimates

Schmied, Dominik - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083092

Output gap measurement after COVID for Colombia : lessons from a permanent-transitory approach

Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2026

We estimate the output gap for the Colombian economy explicitly accounting for the COVID-19 period. Our estimates reveal a significant 20% decline in the output gap but with a faster recovery compared to previous crises. Our empirical strategy follows a two-stage Bayesian vector autoregressive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082422

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Output gap measurement after Covid for Colombia: lessons from a permanent-transitory approach

Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Vidnovlennja ta rozvytok naukovo-innovacijnoho potencialu Ukrai͏̈ny u povojennyj period : monohrafija

Egorov, I. Ju.; Egorov, I. Ju.; Bažal, Jurij N.; … - 2026 - Naukove elektronne mereževe vydannja

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062495

The Federal Reserve's output gap : the unreliability of real-time realiability tests

Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2023

Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013492758

Nowcasting the output gap for Romania using a mixed-frequency approach

Pleșa, Georgiana - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014465694

The Impact of interest rate spillover on output gap : a dynamic spatial durbin model

Wuri, Josephine; Hardanti, Yuliana Rini; Laurentius … - 2023

The recent multidimensional crisis has harmed the global economy because countries are currently integrated. In this study, we examine the spillover effect of the United States (US) interest rate on the output gap of ASEAN+3 countries using the dynamic spatial Durbin model from 2010 to 2020....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014496510

Impact of output gap, COVID-19, and governance quality on fiscal space in Sub-Saharan Africa

Katuka, Blessing; Mudzingiri, Calvin - 2023

This study examined the determinants of fiscal space within the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, utilising a panel of 33 countries from 2005 to 2021. The paper applied the panel threshold, difference, and system generalised method of moments (GMM) regression techniques. The empirical results...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014449936

Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices

Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014321020

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Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices

Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Monitoring the economy in real time : trends and gaps in real activity and prices

Hasenzagl, Thomas; Pellegrino, Filippo; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The inherent uncertainties in output gap estimation : a South African perspective

Vermeulen, Cobus - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014333380

Improving output gap estimation : a bottom-up approach

Rathke, Alexander; Streicher, Sina - 2023

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014427292

Parameters of Kazakhstan's fiscal policy

Žakupova, Meruert M.; Hanetova, Ajaköz B. - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014390660

MIDAS regression: a new horse in the race of filtering macroeconomic time series

Benčík, Michal - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014391338

The Federal Reserve's output gap : the unreliability of real-time reliability tests

Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014474421

Estimating natural rate of interest: the case for Azerbaijan

Ramazanova, Nazrin - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014556532

Pro-cyclical emissions, real externalities, and optimal monetary policy

Giovanardi, Francesco; Kaldorf, Matthias - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326418

Assessing the impact of demographic composition on productivity

Guénette, Justin-Damien; Shao, Lin - 2025

We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323684

Pro-cyclical emissions, real externalities, and optimal monetary policy

Giovanardi, Francesco; Kaldorf, Matthias - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583437

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Pro-cyclical emissions, real externalities, and optimal monetary policy

Giovanardi, Francesco; Kaldorf, Matthias - 2025

Book / Working Paper

A robust method to date recessions and compute output gaps : the Portuguese case

Assunção, João; Fernandes, Pedro Afonso - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332506

Generische Tourenpläne

Mumm, Harald - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326928

Indirect inference for the identification of star variables in macroeconomic models

Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2025

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329658

Integrating the social reproduction of labor into macroeconomic theory : unpaid caregiving and productivity in paid production

Setterfield, Mark - 2025

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of unpaid caregiving in the household into short- and long-term macroeconomic theory and, in particular, the theoretical structure of production on the supply side of the economy. The ambition of the project is to furnish a general...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015417783

An investigation into the causes of stock market return deviations from real earnings yields

Murphy, Austin; AlSalman, Zeina; Souropanis, Ioannis - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464566

Estimating potential non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan

Yusibov, Avaz; Yusifzada, Tural; Ahmadov, Vugar - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467234

Potential output pessimism and austerity in the European Union

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471285

Synchronization and similarity between regional and sectoral output gaps in the Polish manufacturing industry

Błażej, Mirosław; Górajski, Mariusz; Ulrichs, Magdalena - 2025

The notion of the output gap is crucial in understanding underlying economic trends. The macroeconomic stabilization policy can only be effective for all sectors or regions of the economy if regional or sectoral output gaps are sufficiently coherent. This study proposes a new microeconometric...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015447269

The effects of climate change on a small and open economy : economic and monetary perspectives

Bejarano, Jesús Antonio; Rodriguez-Novoa, Daniela - 2025

This policy note analyses the impacts of climate change on a small and open economy, emphasizing its effect on monetary policy. We use a New-Keynesian model to evaluate short- and long-term effects of transition climate change shocks - a permanent and anticipated shock to total factor...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449295

Estimating Potential Output in Niger : Niger

Amouzou Agbe, Guy Morel Kossivi - 2025

Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Niger is, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452014

Assessing Climate Change Risks : Potential Output Losses and Gains from Strengthening Resilience, Bahamas

Aligishiev, Zamid - 2025

The Bahamas is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes. Together, these challenges threaten to undermine the country's potential output over the long term by inflicting damages to physical assets and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452050

Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic : Kyrgyz Republic

Rao, Nasir - 2025

This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Utilizing a suite of methodologies - production function, state-space models, and statistical filters - it estimates...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015452163

Monetary policy during negative output gap periods in India in the first quarter of the 21st century

Mundle, Sudipto; Mehta, Madhur - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015459569