Decision-makers sometimes rely on past data to learn statistical relationships between variables. However, when predicting a target variable, they must adjust how they aggregate past information depending on the observables available. If agents have information on all observables, it is optimal...

This study examines whether complete transparency about the randomness of prediction-generating processes mitigates the hot hand fallacy and the conditions under which it may fail. In a pre-registered laboratory experiment (N=750), we showed that transparency about the prediction-generating...

This paper aims to solve two fundamental problems on finite or infinite horizon dynamic games with complete information. Under some mild conditions, we prove the existence of subgame-perfect equilibria and the upper hemicontinuity of equilibrium payoffs in general dynamic games with simultaneous...

This paper generalises the classic two-player war of attrition game with complete information to a game in which N heterogeneous players compete for N − K prizes. The game with K = 1 may have a nondegenerate equilibrium in which the players’ strategies follow exponential distributions. The...

The theory of full implementation has been criticized for using integer/modulo games, which admit no equilibrium (Jackson (1992)). To address the critique, we revisit the classical Nash implementation problem due to Maskin (1977, 1999) but allow for the use of lotteries and monetary transfers as...

This paper models the US-China trade conflict initiated in 2018 and attempts to analyze the (optimal) strategic choices of the United States and China. In contrast to the existing literature on the topic, we employ the expected utility theory and examine the conflict mathematically. In both...

We study inference in complete information games with discrete strategy spaces. Unlike binary games, we allow for rich strategy spaces and we only assume that they are ordinal in nature. We derive observable implications of equilibrium play under mild shape restrictions on payoff functions, and...

Harris, Reny, and Robson (1995) added a public randomization device to dynamic games with almost perfect information to ensure existence of subgame perfect equilibria (SPE). We show that when Nature's moves are atomless in the original game, public randomization does not enlarge the set of SPE...

We study inference in complete information games with discrete strategy spaces. Unlike binary games, we allow for rich strategy spaces and we only assume that they are ordinal in nature. We derive observable implications of equilibrium play under mild shape restrictions on payoff functions, and...

We discuss the identification and estimation of discrete games of complete information. Following Bresnahan and Reiss (1990, 1991), a discrete game is a generalization of a standard discrete choice model where utility depends on the actions of other players. Using recent algorithms to compute...

It is well-established that in bargaining under complete information, two agents reach an agreement immediately. I assume that nature selects a state that favors one or the other, and the agents may not know the state with probability ε, inducing higher- order uncertainty. A unique equilibrium...

This paper investigates the effects on tacit collusion of increased market transparency on the consumer side of a market in a differentiated Hotelling duopoly. Increasing market transparency increases the benefits to a firm from underbutting the collusive price. It also decreases the punishment...

We characterize the equilibrium of the all-pay auction with general convex cost of effort and sequential effort choices. We consider a set of n players who are arbitrarily partitioned into a group of players who choose their efforts 'early' and a group of players who choose 'late.' Only the...

The present note analyzes the Simultaneous Ascending Bid Auction with arbitrarily many bidders with decreasing marginal valuations under complete information. We show that the game is solvable by iterated elimination of weakly dominated strategies if the efficient allocation assigns at least one...

We consider a two-player game of war of attrition under complete information. It is well- known that this class of games admits equilibria in pure, as well as mixed strategies, and much of the literature has focused on the latter. We show that if the players' payoffs whilst in “war” vary...

In a market with indivisibilities, Roth and Postlewaite (1977) show that the (weak) core can suffer from instability problems, in the sense that groups of individuals might upset the equilibrium by recontracting among themselves. By contrast, the strong core is stable. Following the seminal...

This paper aims to solve two fundamental problems on finite or infinite horizon dynamic games with complete information. Under some mild conditions, we prove the existence of subgame-perfect equilibria and the upper hemicontinuity of equilibrium payoffs in general dynamic games with simultaneous...

Credit boom-busts are observed in experimental credit markets with perfect information, no aggregate shocks, and no speculative motive. By contrast, a stable outcome is observed in the island economy, which isolates the borrowers but is otherwise similar to the market economy. The higher...

Research question: Utilizing the tenets of oligopoly competition that is a well-known type of imperfect rivalry, this study is interested in building a financial theory of inter-company price or pricing (ICP) economics and documenting its direct affinity with corporate financial reporting in...

We show that dealers' limited market participation, coupled with an informational friction resulting from lack of market transparency, can make liquidity demand upward sloping, inducing strategic complementarities: traders demand more liquidity when the market becomes less liquid, fostering...