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Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015440677

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Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds : a tale of two markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375060

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On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2024

Book / Working Paper

On estimates of insider trading in sports betting

Whelan, Karl - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Betting on momentum in contests

Ötting, Marius; Deutscher, Christian; Singleton, Carl; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472502

How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473956

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How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

How does inside information affect sports betting odds?

Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Pricing in response to new information : the case of betting markets

Fischer, Kai; Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt - 2025

Markets are information aggregators. But how do they incorporate new data into their pricing? We examine the response of prediction markets to a novel information shock in a quasi-natural experiment: How did the absence announcements of elite soccer players influence the betting odds of affected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015398315

Returns on complex bets : evidence from Asian Handicap betting on soccer

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015069617

Separating insider and informed behavior : evidence from a natural setting

Hegarty, Tadgh - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015173358

Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2024

Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014476710

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Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Are betting markets inefficient? : evidence from simulations and real data

Winkelmann, David; Ötting, Marius; Deutscher, Christian; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014581137

The relevance of betting market outcome uncertainty : decided wagers and television viewership loss

Salaga, Steven; Mills, Brian; Brown, Katie M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669511

Calculating the bookmaker's margin : why bets lose more on average than you are warned

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

If betting markets are efficient, then the expected loss rate on all bets on a game can be calculated from the quoted odds. Guides to sports betting tell bettors how to do this calculation of the predicted average loss rate. We show that if bookmakers set higher profit margins for bets with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013556861

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Calculating the bookmaker's margin : why bets lose more on average than you are warned

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Does IQ predict engagement with skill-based gambling? : large-scale evidence from horserace betting

Suhonen, Niko; Saastamoinen, Jani; Forrest, David; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014289867

Disagreement and market structure in betting markets : theory and evidence from European soccer

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Online sports betting is growing rapidly around the world. We describe how the competitive structure of the bookmaking market affects odds when bettors disagree about the probabilities of the outcomes of sporting events but are on average correct. We show that the demand for bets on longshots is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014279650

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Disagreement and market structure in betting markets : theory and evidence from European soccer

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Do gamblers understand complex bets? : evidence from Asian handicap betting on soccer

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

The Asian Handicap is a way to bet on soccer matches where payouts depend on an adjustment to the score that favors the weaker team. These bets are more complex than traditional betting on soccer because they require assessing the likely goal difference in the match rather than just the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014279654

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Do gamblers understand complex bets? : evidence from asian handicap betting on soccer

Hegarty, Tadgh; Whelan, Karl - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Business cycles, stock market wealth, and gambling at the racetracks

Ramezani, Cyrus A.; Ahern, James J. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014482768

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Business Cycles, Stock Market Wealth and Gambling at the Racetracks

Ramezani, Cyrus A.; Ahern, James J. - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Risk Free Valuation of Free Bet Coupons and Insured Wagers in Sports Betting

Stanhope, Stephen - 2023

Amongst a wide variety of promotions, sports books frequently offer a ‘free bet’ as an insurance incentive to make particular wagers. In this technical note I describe arbitrage betting strategies for and calculate the corresponding risk free values of both free bet coupons and straight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014263657

Information and price efficiency in betting markets

Hegarty, Tadgh - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591831

How quickly do markets incorporate new information? : evidence from the NCAA men's basketball betting market

Hickman, Daniel; Metz, Neil - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015443091

The Longshot Bias is a Context Effect

Meyer, Andrew; Hundtofte, C. Sean - 2022

In nearly every betting market, gamblers overvalue the riskiest bets. This “longshot bias” is usually explained by a tendency to over-weight low probability events. We offer a novel explanation: contrast effects enhance the attractiveness of longshots because gambles presented in terms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013404986

Betting on Homes

Fischer, Marcel; Füss, Roland; Ruf, Daniel; Stehle, Simon - 2022

In this paper, we analyze the differences in annualized capital gains across heterogeneous investor groups in the US housing market, namely owner-occupiers, private investors, as well as short- and long-term institutional investors. Our empirical results link the performance differences to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013405143

Risk aversion and favorite-longshot bias in a competitive fixed-odds betting market

Whelan, Karl - 2022

Research on sports betting markets has generally found a favorite-longshot bias, the empirical pattern for loss rates for bets on longshots to be higher than for favorites, which implies the odds do not reflect the underlying probabilities. The existing literature focuses largely on pari-mutuel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013332658

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Risk aversion and favorite-longshot bias in a competitive fixed-odds betting market

Whelan, Karl - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Narrative Economics of the Racetrack : An Agent-Based Model of Opinion Dynamics in In-Play Betting on a Sports Betting Exchange

Guzelyte, Rasa; Cliff, Dave - 2022

We present first results from a new agent-based model (ABM) of a sports-betting exchange (such as those operated by BetFair, BetDaq, and SMarkets, among other companies) in which each agent holds a dynamically-varying opinion about some uncertain future event (such as which competitor will win a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013307962

When Disclosure Isn’t Enough : Evidence on Cursedness in Betting Markets

Bernard, Darren; Kapparov, Madi; Toynbee, Sara; Wertz, John - 2022

The SEC recently proposed new restrictions and expanded disclosures to combat insider trading abuses. We examine the effects of analogous regulatory interventions related to ownership sales in thoroughbred horse betting, a market with numerous parallels to capital markets. Drawing on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014236767

Information asymmetry in the NFL gambling market : inside information versus informed bettors

Shank, Corey A. - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014227675

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Information Asymmetry in the NFL Gambling Market : Inside Information Versus Informed Bettors

Shank, Corey A. - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Contracts, pay and performance in the sport of kings : evidence from horse racing

Butler, David; Butler, Robert; Simmons, Robert - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012820511

An alternative in deriving subjective probabilities in the futures wagering market

Ryan, Matt E. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015133093

Mutual Fund Bets on Market Power

Jaspersen, Stefan - 2021

Taking a firm's competitive position into account benefits investors who are better at evaluating this qualitative information. I find that fund managers who overweight companies with market power outperform their peers. Placebo exercises and an exogenous shock to product market competition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013241523

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Mutual Fund Bets on Market Power

Jaspersen, Stefan - 2020

Book / Working Paper

A Horse Race of Preferences for Predicting Portfolio Choice

Li, King King - 2021

We conduct a horse race of preferences to compare the predictive power and net effects of 15 types of preferences, such as attention, ambiguity aversion, loss aversion, probability overweighting, time preference, confidence, self-control, trust, and strategic reasoning, on actual investment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013243831

Income elasticity of demand for horse wagering : large-scale evidence from online betting accounts

Forrest, David; Kainulainen, Tuomo; Saastamoinen, Jani; … - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013442082

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Income Elasticity of Demand for Horse Wagering – Large-Scale Evidence from Online Betting Accounts

Forrest, David; Suhonen, Niko; Kainulainen, Tuomo; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

The Beleaguered Sport of Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Liebman, Bennett - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013216974

On sticky bookmaking as a learning device in horse-racing betting markets

Zhang, Chi; Thijssen, Jacco J. J. - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013543126

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On Sticky Bookmaking as a Learning Device in Horse-Racing Betting Markets

Zhang, Chi; Thijssen, Jacco J. J. - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Pari-mutuel betting markets : racetracks and lotteries revisited

Ziemba, William T. - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014427163

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Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited

Ziemba, William T. - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Parimutuel betting markets : racetracks and lotteries revisited

Ziemba, William T. - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Parimutuel Betting Markets : Racetracks and Lotteries Revisited

Ziemba, William T. - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Machine learning in the prediction of flat horse racing results in Poland

Borowski, Piotr; Chlebus, Marcin - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012795183

Are sports bettors biased toward longshots, favorites, or both? : a literature review

Newall, Philip W. S.; Cortis, Dominic - 2021

A large body of literature on the favorite-longshot bias finds that sports bettors in a variety of markets appear to have irrational biases toward either longshots (which offer a small chance of winning a large amount of money) or favorites (which offer a high chance of winning a small amount of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012423111

Betting Market Inefficiencies in European Football -- Bookmakers' Mispricing or Pure Chance?

Winkelmann, David; Oetting, Marius; Deutscher, Christian - 2020

Research on sports betting often identifies biased evaluation by bookmakers and corresponding opportunities for profitable strategies to bettors. Such studies repeatedly provide evidence for the existence of biased betting odds for different periods and leagues, leaving the impression that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014349101

Hedging on betting markets

Axén, Gustav; Cortis, Dominic - 2020

The possibility to use hedging strategies is an often neglected aspect in the literature on prediction/betting markets, as most papers assume that bettors will bet according to their beliefs about the probability of the outcome of the event, as opposed to the direction in which the odds will...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012293278

Betting on Education

Kisska-Schulze, Kathryn - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012847903

Dynamic learning and market making in spread betting markets with informed bettors

Birge, John R.; Feng, Yifan; Keskin, N. Bora; Schultz, Adam - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012815721

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Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets With Informed Bettors

Birge, John R. - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Optimal pricing in the online betting market

Montone, Maurizio - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012656788

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Optimal Pricing in the Online Betting Market

Montone, Maurizio - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Estimating the implied probabilities in the tennis betting market : a new normalization procedure : comment

Berkowitz, Jason P.; Depken, Craig A.; Gandar, John M. - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014233605

What drives biased odds in sports betting markets : bettors' irrationality and the role of bookmakers

Goto, Shingo; Yamada, Toru - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014431348

Beating the odds : black jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Leeds, Michael A.; Rockoff, Hugh - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012267458

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Beating the odds: black jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Leeds, Michael; Rockoff, Hugh - 2019

Article

Beating the odds : black jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Leeds, Michael A.; Rockoff, Hugh - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Beating the Odds : Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Leeds, Michael A. - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Beating the Odds : Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Leeds, Michael A. - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Sonic Thunder vs Brian the Snail : fast-sounding racehorse names and prediction accuracy in betting exchange markets

Merz, Oliver; Flepp, Raphael; Franck, Egon - 2019

This paper examines whether individuals' decision making is affected by fast-sounding horse names in a betting exchange market environment. In horse racing, the name of a horse does not depend on the horse's performance and is thus uninformative. If positive affect towards fast-sounding horse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012209202

Entrepreneur—A Jockey or a Horse Owner?

Kulchina, Elena - 2019

The business literature has long been concerned with understanding why people become entrepreneurs. This literature, however, has mixed together two important issues — founding a new business and being the right person to operate it. Up until recently, entrepreneurship scholars have largely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012864219