This paper analyzes the case of a principal who wants to provide an agent with proper incentives to explore a hypothesis that can be either true or false. The agent can shirk, thus never proving the hypothesis, or he can avail himself of a known technology to produce fake successes. This latter...

This paper analyzes the case of a principal who wants to provide an agent with proper incentives to explore a hypothesis that can be either true or false. The agent can shirk, thus never proving the hypothesis, or he can avail himself of a known technology to produce fake successes. This latter...

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we...

From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model allows for a one time increase in the...

From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model allows for a one time increase in the...

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we...

A Dynamic Hurdle Model for Zero-Inflated Count Data: With an Application to Health Care UtilizationExcess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process...

In 2004, the German Social Health Insurance introduced a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. I combine a structural model of health care demand and a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the effect of that reform on the number of visits. In the model, the...

A Dynamic Hurdle Model for Zero-Inflated Count Data: With an Application to Health Care UtilizationExcess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process...

Excess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process has two rates, a lower rate until the first event, and a higher one thereafter. We derive the...

In 2004, the German Social Health Insurance introduced a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. I combine a structural model of health care demand and a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the effect of that reform on the number of visits. In the model, the...

Excess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process has two rates, a lower rate until the first event, and a higher one thereafter. We derive the...

A Dynamic Hurdle Model for Zero-Inflated Count Data: With an Application to Health Care UtilizationExcess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process...

Excess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process has two rates, a lower rate until the first event, and a higher one thereafter. We derive the...

In 2004, the German Social Health Insurance introduced a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. I combine a structural model of health care demand and a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the effect of that reform on the number of visits. In the model, the...

Precise identification of the time when a process has changed enables process engineers to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to...

Slepian and Sudakov-Fernique type inequalities, which com- pare expectations of maxima of Gaussian random vectors under certain restrictions on the covariance matrices, play an important role in probability theory, especially in empirical process and extreme value theories. Here we give explicit...

Precise identification of the time when a process has changed enables process engineers to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to...

In the presented paper, the author tried to introduce a new initiative in risk assessment of companies' financial difficulties, which arise in the RMI CRI in Singapore under the guidance of prof. Jin-Chuan Duan. This initiative and proposed based on Poisson process theoretical model is available...

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we...

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we...

This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is...

We study a continuous-time game of strategic experimentation in which the players try to assess the failure rate of some new equipment or technology. Breakdowns occur at the jump times of a Poisson process whose unknown intensity is either high or low. In marked contrast to existing models, we...

We study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in continuous time. Related work has proven that optimal consumption in this model is a smooth function of state variables. This allows us to describe the evolution of optimal state variables (wealth and labour market status) by stochastic...

The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last twenty-two years. A common notion in economics is that some banks can become "too big to fail." Is this still a true statement? What is the relationship, if any, between bank sizes and bank failures? In this thesis, the...

A Poisson process with stochastic intensity is utilized to model changes of a benchmark interest rate set by a Central Bank. We propose explicit formulas for estimators of parameters and the expectation of the intensity, based on observations of the process. Through comparing the intensity and...

Tests for parametric nonhomogeneous and homogeneous Markov processes are given. Asymptotic distribution of test statistics is investigated. Tests for various well-known models are discussed as examples. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

In this paper, we consider a Markov renewal process (MRP) to model tropical cyclones occurred in Bangladesh during 1877–2009. The model takes into account both the occurrence history and some physical constraints to capture the main physical characteristics of the storm surge process. We...

Interval-censored survival data are often recorded in medical practice. Although some methods have been developed for analyzing such data, issues still remain in terms of efficiency and accuracy in estimation. In addition, interval-censored data with spatial correlation are not unusual but less...

In this paper, we analyze a discrete-time Markov chain theoretic model of the provision of guided tours to tourists by a private firm. Specifically, we first determine the equilibrium probability distribution of the number of tourists in the guided tour providing firm's waiting room just before...

Some assumptions with respect to the number [N(t)]t>0 and the amount [Xi]i=1 of damages are introduced in the paper. It will be assumed that the average of the number of damages is a Poisson process, which leads to a compound Poisson process [S(t)]t>0 for the total damages.

This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, treats the aggregate loss as having a compound distribution with two main components: one characterizing the arrival of claims and another...

We consider a game of strategic experimentation in the presence of competition between two agents. Each agent faces a two-armed bandit problem in which she continually chooses between her private, risky arm and a common, safe arm. An agent has exclusive access to her private arm. However, only...

This paper analyzes a two-player game of strategic experimentation with three-armed exponential bandits in continuous time. Players face replica bandits, with one arm that is safe in that it generates a known payoff, whereas the likelihood of the risky arms' yielding a positive payoff is...