Search Results - subject_exact:"Policy uncertainty"

Narrow search

Government-sourced categorical economic policy uncertainty

Hoang, Khanh; Pham, Linh; Vu Quang Trinh; Ngo, Thanh; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437407

"Know when to fold "em" : policy uncertainty and acquisition abandonment

Ferguson, Andrew; Hu, Wei; Lam, Peter - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015164384

Adaptation of renewable energy in SSA : testing debt overhang hypothesis with the presences of political stability and ICT development

Qamruzzaman, Md; Manickavasagam, Theivanayaki; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616915

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

Diakonova, Marina; Molina, Luis; Mueller, Hannes; … - 2024

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357972

Show 2 more versions 2

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

Diakonova, Marina; Molina, Luis; Mueller, Hannes; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

Diakonova, Marina; Molina, Luis; Mueller, Hannes; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Safe-haven flows into the German bond market and the role of policy disagreement

Röder, Jana; Tillmann, Peter; Winker, Peter; Yun, Jinyeong - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627758

Gender gap in physical activity : the role of conflicts and political instability

Di Domizio, Marco - 2026

This article takes as its starting point the warnings issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) on the perverse effects of a sedentary lifestyle on people's health, resulting in additional health expenditure that diverts significant resources away from other areas of public spending. The...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618360

From unity to fragmentation? : OECD country groupings during successive crises (2019-2024)

Bílková, Diana - 2026

This study examines the macroeconomic cohesion and heterogeneity of OECD countries from 2019 to 2024 using cluster analysis based on key economic, social, and institutional indicators. The methodology identifies clusters reflecting similarities in macroeconomic patterns, while accounting for...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654693

Investigating the mediating role of political stability in the relationship between poverty and growth

Alamoudi, Abdulrhman Mohmmad - 2026

This study aims to examine the mediating role of political stability in the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in the MENA region. While several countries in the region have experienced economic expansion, persistent poverty remains a challenge, often attributed to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655390

The role of institutional quality in renewable energy transition : a panel CS-ARDL analysis of MIKTA countries

Shanyazov, Nuriddin; Madrakhimov, Kakhramon; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619901

A probabilistic measure of state fragility

Margalef, Joan - 2026

This paper develops a novel measure of state fragility: the probability of state failure. We define state failure as the inability to perform core functions and operationalize it through observable breakdowns- conflict, territorial control, institutional deficiency, and public service...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612459

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Inward Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Japan’s : International Investment Agreements

Inada, Mitsuo; Jinji, Naoto - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606337

Political stability and money laundering risk

Mahmood, Hamza; Ashraf, Badar Nadeem; Tran, Vy - 2026

The influence of political stability on financial crime remains a subject of ongoing debate. While stability is often associated with policy continuity, regulatory credibility, and more effective enforcement, an alternative view suggests that unstable democracies may outperform stable...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628470

The impact of geopolitical crises on fiscal and budgetary stability

Papainog, Maria-Teodora - 2026

This study explores the relationship between geopolitical risk and fiscal-budgetary stability of countries, focusing on how external instability impacts the dynamics of the budget deficit. Using a dynamic System GMM (Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond) model on a panel dataset of 25 OECD member...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639915

Economic policy uncertainty in Central America and the Dominican Republic

Diakonova, Marina; Ghirelli, Corinna; Wu, Juan Quiñónez - 2026

The advent of Big Data and computational tools has transformed macroeconomic analysis, introducing real-time, high-frequency text-based indicators such as the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index pioneered by Baker et al. (2016). However, constructing the EPU index for developing economies...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643982

Selection of bureaucrats under weak state capacity : evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo

Lee, Dongil; Mvukiyehe, Eric; Tchoupé, Christelle; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640064

Policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment : the moderating role of institutional quality

Akbakay, Zeki - 2026

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and examines how this relationship is moderated by institutional quality. The analysis is based on data from 37 developing countries over the period of 2002-2021. The World...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636811

Transformations in conditions of turbulence : selection of adaptation models and mechanisms : International Scientific and Practical Conference

2026 - Electronic edition

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641356

Is insider trading politically informative?

Li, Zhenjun; Su, Zulong; Wei, Lijun - 2026

This study examines whether insider trading is politically informative and presents some evidence to hedge against firm-level political risk. Using quarterly data on U.S. listed firms from 2002 to 2021, we find that managers increase opportunistic insider sales prior to rises in firm-level...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666480

The value of reliable statistics

Bloom, Nicholas; Groshen, Erica L.; Hobbs, Duncan R.; … - 2026

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency's data were "rigged." In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641440

Transmission losses, import dependence, and political instability : a co-integration perspective on Pakistan's energy crisis

Khan, Yasir; Yousafzai, Humaira; Hassan, Taimoor - 2026

Transnational oil and gas pipelines serve as vital strategic corridors within China's framework for energy import dependency, with their external risks directly impacting energy security and economic development. However, existing research still exhibits shortcomings in the systematic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671336

Fiscal consolidation and political instability

Heimberger, Philipp; Matzner, Anna - 2026

This paper analyses how fiscal consolidation shocks affect political instability in advanced economies. Using data on fiscal tightening in 17 OECD countries from 1980 to 2020, we estimate dynamic effects in a local projection framework employing a narrative-based instrumental variable approach...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643114

Political uncertainty and financial firm performance : evidence from the Thai economy as an emerging market in Asia

Suvanna Trakarnsirinonta; Wisuttorn Jitaree; Wonlop Buachoom - 2023

This study analyzes the effects that certain political-uncertainty factors have on financial firm performance in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The results of a panel regression performed on a database of 7976 firm-years over 18-year unbalanced panel data from 2001 to 2018 show a mixed...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013500690

Political/policy uncertainty, corporate disclosure, and information asymmetry*

Lei, Lijun; Luo, Yan - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014250823

The cost of uncertainty on investment : quantifying the impact of policy volatility on investment in the global economy : report

2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650872

The effect of economic freedom on quality of life : exploring the role of political risk factors in Africa

Akinlo, Anthony Enisan; Okunlola, Charles O. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015324494

Does military spending stabilize or destabilize governments? : international analysis

Goel, Rajeev K.; Nelson, Michael A. - 2026

Military spending by nations has the potential to either stabilize governments or destabilize them (via threats of coups, for instance). We study this relationship formally by using a rich dataset on more than 150 countries, spanning nearly two recent decades from 2006 to 2023. Among other...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651712

The Russian grain trap food security & political development in sub-Saharan Africa

Martyshev, Pavlo; Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Nivievskyi, Oleg - 2026

The weaponization of agricultural trade has once again emerged as critical in the study of modern geopolitics due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia has used its wheat exports as a means of enhancing its geopolitical influence over countries in the Global South, evidence...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632175

U.S. Presidential news coverage : risk, uncertainty and stocks

Chan, Kam Fong; Smales, Lee A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015331650

Fiscal response in the presence of aid heterogeneity under political regime change : new evidence from Pakistan

Farooq, Imran; Mavrotas, George; Cassimon, Danny - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561095

Diversify or concentrate? : supply chain responses to policy uncertainty

Namdar, Jafar; Modi, Sachin; Blackhurst, Jennifer - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333341

Bond yield responses to macro news : the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty

Hördahl, Peter; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Xia, Fan Dora - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668409

Show one more version 1

Bond yield responses to macro news : the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty

Hördahl, Peter; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Xia, Fan Dora - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The impact of firm-level political risk on eco-innovation : the moderating effect of CEO power

Owolabi, Ayotola; Mousavi, Mohammad Mahdi; Gozgor, Giray; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015358034

Decoding the impact of political uncertainty on IPO underpricing in China

Xie, Yamin; Li, Zhichao; Ouyang, Wenjing; Wang, Hongxia - 2025

Purpose - Political factors play a crucial role in China's initial public offering (IPO) market due to its distinctive institutional context (i.e. "economic decentralization" and "political centralization"). Given the significant level of IPO underpricing in China, we examine the impact of local...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015198276

Local political uncertainty and branch banking : evidence from deposit rate setting

Cotter, John; Gam, Yong Kyu; Hu, Yi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665666

The impact of policy uncertainty and risk taking on the credit resource allocation of urban commercial banks

Yao, Jianfeng; Fan, Jianfei - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326876

Safe-haven flows into the German bond market and the role of policy disagreement

Röder, Jana; Tillmann, Peter; Winker, Peter; Yun, Jinyeong - 2026

German government debt is considered a safe asset in times of turbulence. We estimate the impact of changes in the risk appetite of global investors on weekly investment fund flows into the German sovereign bond market. Our key contribution is to allow the impact of such shocks to depend on the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625777

The price of regulatory risk in housing markets@evidence from Berlin

Dolls, Mathias; Fuest, Clemens; Gstrein, David; … - 2026

We study how regulatory risk affects housing markets in the aftermath of rent control. Our setting is Berlin, where a stringent rent cap introduced in 2020 was repealed in 2021, but was followed by continued political debate over expropriation of housing companies and further intervention. Using...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059538

Trade uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and shipping costs

Melas, Konstantinos D.; Michail, Nektarios; Louca, … - 2025

We examine how trade and policy uncertainty affect shipping freight rates, using a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model. Trade uncertainty has a strong effect on shipping costs, even though the effects become insignificant within a year. On the other hand, policy uncertainty has a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420164

Ambitious but risk averse : UK manager attitudes and the investment gap

Allas, Tera; Roper, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676376

Quantile time-frequency spillovers among climate policy uncertainty, energy markets, and stock markets

He, Zhifang; Qian, Wanchuan; Miftah, Badir; Abedin, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015470150

Shockwaves of political leadership : the impact of Trump's second presidency on global oil prices

Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472034

Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock

Imbierowicz, Björn; Nagengast, Arne J.; Prieto, Esteban; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338531

Show one more version 1

Bank Lending and Firm Internal Capital Markets Following a Deglobalization Shock

Imbierowicz, Björn; Nagengast, Arne; Prieto, Esteban; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The impact of political stability on environmental situation : comparative nardl analysis on developed and developing countries

Sharkas, Randa; Ismael, Mohanad - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472037

Climate Transition Risks and the Energy Sector

Acharya, Viral V.; Giglio, Stefano; Pastore, Stefano; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015339545

DACA's Uncertain Path: How Policy Threats Reshape Economic and Social Gains for Recipients

Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Wang, Chunbei - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015423033

Climate and political effects on agriculture : empirical evidence from SSA

Feye, Defaru Adugna; Beyene, Amsalu Bedemo; Krishna … - 2025

The most of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have been affected by climate change and food insecurity problems due to the reduction of production and productivity of cereal crops in the continent. The purpose of this research was to examine the short-run and long-run effects of climate change...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472864