Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the...

This paper examines the electoral cycle and the conduct of the central government’s fiscal policy. It uses a panel database with disaggregated spending and revenue series for 34 middle-income countries over 2000-2022. A dynamic panel approach was used to look at overall government spending and...

This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election...

In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections-a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure favorable...

Müller (2023) presents evidence for electoral cycles in macroprudential policy in a sample of 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Consistent with theoretical arguments, the pattern of looser regulation is larger when election outcomes are uncertain and institutions are weak. In this...

We study voting in general elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. Our data set includes demographics and turnout of all registered voters for the years 2016–2020, as well as vote shares at the precinct and contest level. We estimate a Downsian voting model incorporating rich observed...

In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections—a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure...

In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government's second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as...

We investigate whether European banks adjust their loan prices and volumes of new lending in the months running up to major national elections. Using a unique dataset that draws on data covering some 250 banksin 19 Eurozone countries from 2010 to 2020 at monthly frequency, and that includes...

This study examines the effect of regulatory independence of the central bank in shaping the impact of electoral cycles on bank lending behaviour in Africa. It employs the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) Two-Step estimator for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the...

Pakistan's political economy has been characterized by some interesting and arguably unique features in recent decades. The combination of two stands out, in particular: (1) lifetime uncertainty for elected governments, and (2) a high degree of certainty that, due to reasons that are largely...

The Trump Administration enacted deficit-financed tax cuts, and the Trump campaign has proposed doubling down on that approach. The Biden-Harris Administration added less to national debt and shows more commitment to fiscal responsibility The Trump Administration consistently enacted tax...

In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government’s second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg...

We estimate the causal effect of partisan media on voter behavior by exploiting a natural experiment in which Sky News Australia - a conservative 24-hour news channel - became freely available to 8 million people. Using comprehensive national polling-station-level electoral data and broadcast...

This dissertation is a collection of four articles focused on the seeking of rents, which are rewards and prizes not earned or not consistent with competitive market returns. Each article explores a different aspect of the topic, focusing on the consequences, determinants or measurement of...

We investigate whether the presence of fiscal rules might limit the insurgence of a Political Budget Cycle (PBC) in investment spending at municipal level. Data based on the balance sheets of Italian municipalities are explored for the period 1999-2012. In line with some existing studies, we...

Political budget cycles (PBCs) in western democracies have been extensively examined. Yet, few studies have explored whether there exists a local political budget cycle under authoritarian regimes. This research attempt to address this important question by investigating local cases in China....

This paper documents that surprise election outcomes - measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day - are causing non-negligible short-term contractions...

This paper documents that surprise election outcomes – measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day – are causing non-negligible short-term...

How do recession episodes experienced by central bankers in their impressionable years influence their monetary policy decision making during election periods? Using a large data of central bankers (from developed and developing countries) over the period 2000M1 to 2017M12, we find that central...

We analyze media repression in Putin’s Russia (2004–2019), a smart dictatorship that mimics democratic institutions, notably relatively free elections, and a relatively free press. Drawing on a unique granular dataset on journalist harassment and the pre-determined, staggered timing of local...

Although the rational choice approach remains the theoretical modeling paradigm in economics and political sciences, the relevance of behavioral factors such as heuristics and biases has been increasingly acknowledged in both fields over the last decades. Against this background, and in honor...