The objective of this paper is to focus on fragility research findings and examine what works or does not work in development aid and development cooperation in fragile and conflictaffected contexts. We draw on our own research findings as well as country-level studies. We examine questions of...

This study analyzes the effects that certain political-uncertainty factors have on financial firm performance in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The results of a panel regression performed on a database of 7976 firm-years over 18-year unbalanced panel data from 2001 to 2018 show a mixed...

This paper analyzes the relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies. Using a panel of 34 advanced economies from 1996 to 2020, we first employ a panel VAR estimated via System GMM, which allows us to explore the endogenous relationship between economic...

Purpose - This study attempts to figure out the factors that contributed to deposing certain elected presidents before the end of their constitutional terms, alongside tracing the new political context that prevailed in Latin America since 1978 and its impact on direct political participation...

Why is it still relevant to probe the notion of fragility when the concept has been so heavily criticised? Because it continues to be used in policy on conflict, security and development. For example, the United Nations names fragility as a major challenge to achieving the Millennium Development...

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) played a significant role in domestic employment and inclusive GDP in developing countries such as Ethiopia. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of sustainable growth of SMEs in developing countries, notably in...

Evidence show that IGAD member countries are the most political unstable countries in the world. On the other hand, literatures on the subject reveal that youth unemployment contributes the most towards the political instability across the world. Nonetheless, investigation on the effect of youth...

Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A...

Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF's Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in...

Although there is valuable literature on areas of corruption, such as political and corporate corruption, a limited number of papers have examined the determinants of administrative corruption. To the best of our knowledge, the multivariate impacts of political instability and institutional...

This paper investigates how political uncertainty affects firms’ climate risk premium from a global point of view. We use the presidential election events in the United States as well as that from all countries with a stock market as proxies for political uncertainty. We find that the global...

We examine the role of political uncertainty in executive compensation for Chinese listed firms from 2005 to 2018. Using detailed disclosure of turnover of chief officials at the municipal level, we find that political uncertainty reduces executive compensation-performance sensitivity. The...

The COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest have focused considerable corporate attention on political risk. The disruptions to company operations are voluminous and diverse: entertainment and hospitality industry closures, airline industry cancellations, eviction moratoriums in residential real...

This paper studies theoretically and empirically the role of domestic political incentives in the accumulation of large external debts by developing countries during 1972-81. The theoretical model characterizes two equilibrium regimes. In one regime the borrower is on its demand curve and...

Development outcomes come in ‘clusters’ that seem difficult to exit. Using original data from Colombia, we present evidence of the interconnection between two critical political components: state weakness and clientelism. State weakness creates the right environment for clientelism to...

Political uncertainty is a risk that affects the decision-making processes of firms. Therefore, it is crucial to understand what causes political uncertainty and include appropriate indicators in a risk management system. This study introduces election polls as a new determinant of political...

This paper proposes a disaster DGSE model with political uncertainty to examine the future implications of climate disasters on financial markets. The model predicts that there are three additional risk factors due to this specification: climatic disaster risk, political uncertainty risk, and a...

This paper analyzes the effect of political instability on economic growth in Ethiopia since 2004 using ARDL regression approach to identify the existence of this correlation and the channels through which this impact happened. The paper found that political instability has a significant effect...

This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise...

In this study, we look at the association between COVID-19 fatality rate and internal conflict, highlighting the importance of government economic support under the pandemic as a moderating factor. Our main hypothesis implies that increased COVID-19 fatality rates are likely to be positively...

North Macedonia and Greece resolved the 27-year country name dispute and removed the main hurdle for North Macedonia to start the accession processes towards the EU and NATO. The paper analyzes the stock market movements around several events related to the name issue resolution to uncover...

High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting...

How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of...

This paper proposes a novel measure of political risk that confirms some of the findings documented in the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) literature. Particularly, we confirm the positive relationship between political stability and its components on FDI inflows, and the moderating effect of...