Search Results - subject_exact:"Politischer Konjunkturzyklus"

Exploring political budget cycles in the EU-27

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Leal, Frederico Silva - 2026

Using quarterly data for the period Q1:2000–Q4:2024, the study examines whether elections in EU‑27 member states shape the composition and timing of fiscal policy strategies, and how political, fiscal and institutional constraints condition these dynamics. Employing a two‑way...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593132

Selective turnout, voting policy, and partisan bias : evidence from multi-level data

Berry, Steven; Cox, Christian; Haile, Philip A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604467

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Selective turnout, voting policy, and partisan bias : evidence from multi-level data

Berry, Steven; Cox, Christian; Haile, Philip A. - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Do parties matter for economic outcomes? : a replication study of Pettersson-Lidbom (Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008)

Korpi, Martin; Lakomaa, Erik - 2026

In an important and much cited study, Pettersson-Lidbom (2008) identifies significant left-wing majority coalition effects on economic outcomes for Swedish local governments, 1974-1994. We first replicate the original study and then extend the original research by applying Pettersson-Lidbom's...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607681

The unintended consequences of post-disaster policies for spatial sorting

Henkel, Marcel; Kwon, Eunjee; Magontier, Pierre - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656270

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The unintended consequences of post-disaster policies for spatial sorting

Henkel, Marcel; Kwon, Eunjee; Magontier, Pierre - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The unintended consequences of post-disaster policies for spatial sorting

Henkel, Marcel; Kwon, Eunjee; Magontier, Pierre - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656270

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The unintended consequences of post-disaster policies for spatial sorting

Henkel, Marcel; Kwon, Eunjee; Magontier, Pierre - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Partisan bias in economic forecasts : experimental evidence from the presidential elections in Argentina

Mariño Fages, Diego - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652098

Forecasting electoral violence

Randahl, David; Leis, Maxine Ria; Gåsste, Tim; Fjelde, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668320

Political budget cycles in federal systems : the case of India

Das, Sourav; Hufschmidt, Patrick; Mankat, Fabian; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671577

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Political budget cycles in federal systems : the case of India

Das, Sourav; Hufschmidt, Patrick; Mankat, Fabian; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Wage bargaining structure and political budget cycles : a policy game approach

Arabzadeh, Hamzeh - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671345

Electoral corruption cycles : separating perceptions and experiences across households and experts

Crombach, Lamar - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671003

Rules alone won't do : empirical evidence on sanction mechanisms of fiscal rules and political budget cycles

Mair, Lukas; Mosler, Martin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671013

Reprint of : political budget cycles in federal systems : the case of India

Das, Sourav; Hufschmidt, Patrick; Mankat, Fabian; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671017

Partisan abortions

González, Libertad; Guirola, Luis; Zapater, Blanca - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674989

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Partisan abortions

González, Libertad; Guirola, Luis; Zapater, Blanca - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Goodbye, montesquieu : executive spillovers in judicial elections

Fontana, Nicola; Nannicini, Tommaso; Snyder, James M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073675

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Goodbye, Montesquieu : executive spillovers in judicial elections

Fontana, Nicola; Nannicini, Tommaso; Snyder, James M. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Goodbye, montesquieu : executive spillovers in judicial elections

Fontana, Nicola; Nannicini, Tommaso; Snyder, James M. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The political budget cycle of child and youth welfare expenditures

Nikolka, Till - 2026

In public finance, political budget cycles have been studied with respect to different policy fields and institutional contexts. The goal of this paper is to test for election cycle effects in child and youth welfare expenditures at the level of counties and municipalities in Germany. Exploiting...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082506

When drought travels: partisan electoral responses through food networks in U.S. presidential elections

Couharde, Cécile; Generoso, Rémi; Guillossou, Michaël - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016086799

Rewarding allegiance? : political alignment and fiscal outcomes in local government

Brunnschweiler, Christa Noel; Obeng, Samuel Kwabena - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083766

Long-wave economic cycles, political realignment elections, and the Baran Ratio

Lambert, Thomas - 2026

This exploratory article outlines the idea and development of the economic surplus concept at the macroeconomic level. The notion of a residual amount of income over and above what is necessary for a society's necessary and useful consumption (education, housing, food, clothing, and other...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016092986

Nationalization in local elections

Benedictis-Kessner, Justin de; Naftel, Daniel; Sides, John - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062206

Party and progress 1949-2022 : economic growth and stability under contrasting presidential regimes

Mulligan, Robert F.; Lombardo, Gary A. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665290

Information revelation in constant-sum games : elections and beyond

Kartik, Navin; Squintani, Francesco; Tinn, Katrin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616756

Optimal policy choice in finite horizon

Basak, Gopal Krishna; Pranab Kumar Das; Parwez, Md. Anees - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673632

Play to your strengths : incumbency effect and issue emphasis in Brazilian local elections

Pereira, Leila - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073878

Political cycles of media repression

Schulze, Günther G.; Zakharov, Nikita - 2025

In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections—a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323386

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Political cycles of media repression

Schulze, Günther G.; Zakharov, Nikita - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Political cycles of media repression

Schulze, Günther G.; Zakharov, Nikita - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Spatial analysis of political budget cycles in Türkiye

Yamanoğlu, Kemal Buğra; Atan, Murat; Gökçe, Atilla - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062755

The influence of politicians' sex on political budget cycles : an empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

García, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371877

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The influence of politicians' sex on political budget cycles : an empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

García, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - 2022 - This version: 30 May 2022

Edition: This version: 30 May 2022

Book / Working Paper

The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles : An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities

García, Israel; Hayo, Bernd - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Electoral cycles in macroprudential regulation : a replication of Müller (2023)

Gáspár, Attila; Sandström, Alexandra; Watson, Taylor; … - 2025

Müller (2023) presents evidence for electoral cycles in macroprudential policy in a sample of 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Consistent with theoretical arguments, the pattern of looser regulation is larger when election outcomes are uncertain and institutions are weak. In this...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271469

Promotion pressure and fiscal behavior of public officials : an analysis of subnational infrastructure financing in China

Chen, Zhibin; Niu, Guanzhao - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062773

National elections and sub-national electoral cycles : do strong fiscal rules matter in Europe?

Lopez Villavicencio, Antonia; Oriola, Hugo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332266

Public capital investment spike events : the regional dimension in Greece

Arachovas, Charalampos; Christopulos, Dēmētrēs K.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189821

Partisan mortality cycles

Millimet, Daniel L.; Whitacre, Travis - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674893

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Partisan mortality cycles

Millimet, Daniel L.; Whitacre, Travis - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Election cycles and systemic risk

Kladakis, George; Skouralis, Alexandros - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015436788

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Election cycles and systemic risk

Kladakis, G,; Skouralis, A. - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy : evidence from disaggregated budgets in middle-income countries

Fatmawati, Sri; Fitrady, Ardyanto; Widodo, Tri - 2025

This paper examines the electoral cycle and the conduct of the central government’s fiscal policy. It uses a panel database with disaggregated spending and revenue series for 34 middle-income countries over 2000-2022. A dynamic panel approach was used to look at overall government spending and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015439422

Political business cycles in varieties of capitalistic systems

Beckmann, Joscha; Schweickert, Rainer; Jahn, Marvin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015462590

Chapter 11 bankruptcy outcomes and gubernatorial election cycles

Breuer, Wolfgang; Haas, Simon; Knetsch, Andreas - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015492215

Measuring political instability at a high frequency

Benner, Niklas; Blagov, Boris; Dirks, Maximilian - 2025

This study introduces the World Index of Political Instability (WIPI), a novel high-frequency measure that covers four dimensions of political instability in 182 countries, available from 1960 until 2024. Our measure is extracted from the curated texts of the Economist Intelligence Unit’s...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610254

Elections Matter : Capital Flows and Political Cycles

Arakelyan, Maria - 2025

This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows. Using...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612878

Doubling down political budget cycles : the role of state-owned enterprises

Asatryan, Zareh; Christofzik, Désirée I.; Nover, Justus - 2025

We study the degree and nature of political budget cycles in public investments when two instruments are available: investments by core governments and, more indirectly, by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). While fiscal pressure on core budgets may induce politicians to shift election-induced...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015553255

Election-year stimuli and economic performance : evidence from a macroeconometric model of the Philippines

Ruiz, Mark Gerald C.; Miral, Ramona Maria L.; Rivera, … - 2025

We evaluated the transmission of election shocks in the Philippine economy using an augmented macroeconometric model that integrates political business cycle (PBC) dynamics into the country's macroeconomic framework. Building upon the model developed by Debuque-Gonzales and Corpus (2023, 2024),...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015578954

Spending multipliers and the party in power : evidence from United States political cycles

Morelli, Francesco - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633222

Partisan polarization in local politics

Benedictis-Kessner, Justin de; Einstein, Katherine Levine; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633750

Do local elections affect the spending of intergovernmental transfers? : evidence from Germany's stimulus package of 2009

Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. - 2025 - This version: October 2025

In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government's second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475349

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Do local elections affect the spending of intergovernmental transfers? : evidence from Germany’s stimulus package of 2009

Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Do local elections affect the spending of intergovernmental transfers? : evidence from Germany's stimulus package of 2009

Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. - 2025 - This version: October 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475349

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Do local elections affect the spending of intergovernmental transfers? : evidence from Germany’s stimulus package of 2009

Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Predicting Australian federal electoral seats with machine learning

Collins, John Jack - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667843

Political electoral cycles and evolution of Italian health care system financing : a long run perspective

Fiorillo, Fabio; Lucarelli, Stefano - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014552667

Unraveling growth models in peripheral economies : Kalecki's political business cycle and Brazil's "Pink Tide" experience

Marques, Pedro Romero - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546479

The political economy of pragmatic paranoia : the strange case of Pakistan

Razmi, Arslan - 2024

Pakistan's political economy has been characterized by some interesting and arguably unique features in recent decades. The combination of two stands out, in particular: (1) lifetime uncertainty for elected governments, and (2) a high degree of certainty that, due to reasons that are largely...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015070851

On the macro-political dynamics of conflict inflation

Proano, Christian; Galanis, Giorgos; Peña, Juan Carlos - 2025

In recent times, the notion that inflation may be the result of conflicting claims by workers and capitalists over the distribution of income has experienced a revival in the academic and policy debate. Against this background, we investigate in this paper the macrodynamics of conflict inflation...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015485692

U.S. presidential approval and the macroeconomy : 1960-2022

Coggin, T. Daniel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371891

US presidential election 2024 : consequences for fiscal policy

Clausing, Kimberly A. - 2024

The Trump Administration enacted deficit-financed tax cuts, and the Trump campaign has proposed doubling down on that approach. The Biden-Harris Administration added less to national debt and shows more commitment to fiscal responsibility The Trump Administration consistently enacted tax...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071042