Search Results - subject_exact:"Prediction market"

Evidence on settlement-window price divergence in bitcoin prediction markets

Joshi, Sibin; Zhou, Zhaoxian - 2026

This paper investigates whether prediction market settlements create incentives for temporary price pressure in Bitcoin spot markets. Using high-frequency data from February 2025 to January 2026 and actual contract-level data from Polymarket and Kalshi to identify economically relevant contract...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064358

The role of the end time in experimental asset markets

Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071710

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The role of the end time in experimental asset markets

Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Price formation in field prediction markets : the wisdom in the crowd

Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014491079

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Price Formation in Field Prediction Markets : The Wisdom in the Crowd

Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

How manipulable are prediction markets?

Rasooly, Itzhak; Rozzi, Roberto - 2025

In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372547

Information aggregation with AI agents

Galanis, Spyros - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641476

Conflicting versus reinforcing private information, information aggregation, and the time series properties of asset prices

Schnitzlein, Charles R.; Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L.; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015557523

Prediction Markets, the True Value of the Revolving Door and the US Cabinet

Koch, Benjamin; Luechinger, Simon; Moser, Christoph - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015211263

Managing bubbles in experimental asset markets with monetary policy

Hennequin, Myrna; Hommes, Cars H. - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014544064

The impact of search frictions in experimental asset markets : over-the-counter versus double auction

Ding, Shuze; Lu, Dong; Puzzello, Daniela - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463480

Prediction markets, the true value of the revolving door, and the US cabinet

Koch, Benjamin; Lüchinger, Simon; Moser, Christoph - 2024

We estimate the value of the revolving door for firm executives and directors joining the cabinets of the Trump I and Biden administrations. By combining intraday stock and prediction market data, we take the degree of anticipation of political appointments into account and we offer estimates...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015164602

When do prediction markets return average beliefs? : experimental evidence

Mantovani, Marco; Filippin, Antonio - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014537458

Trading institutions in experimental asset markets : theory and evidence

Guler, Bulent; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583547

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Trading institutions in experimental asset markets : theory and evidence

Guler, Bulent; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets

Shachat, Jason M.; Srinivasan, Anand - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013483099

Learning from the past : the role of personal experiences in artificial stock markets

Lenhard, Gregor - 2024

Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014490050

Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020

To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012231540

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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Let's chat ... when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets

Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015138204

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Let's chat ... when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets

Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Efficiency testing of prediction markets : martingale approach, likelihood ratio and Bayes factor analysis

Richard, Mark; Večeř, Jan - 2021

This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012426965

The comovement of voter preferences : insights from U.S. presidential election prediction markets beyond polls

Chernov, Mikhail; Elenev, Vadim; Song, Dongho - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333867

Makers and takers : the economics of the kalshi prediction market

Burgi, Constantin; Deng, Wanying; Whelan, Karl - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549009

Arbitrage in political prediction markets

Stershic, Andrew; Gujral, Kritee - 2020

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012667592

A Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule Agent-based Model to Evaluate Prediction Markets

V. C. Carvalho, Athos; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - 2022

Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper presents an Agent-based model, called Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule-Automated Market Maker (LMSR-ASM), to evaluate Prediction Markets....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013289339

A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets

Carvalho, Athos V. C.; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014495664

A culture of greed : Bubble formation in experimental asset markets with greedy and non-greedy traders

Hoyer, Karlijn; Zeisberger, Stefan; Breugelmans, Seger M.; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014472084

Arbitrage Bots in Experimental Asset Markets

Angerer, Martin; Neugebauer, Tibor; Shachat, Jason M. - 2022

Trading algorithms are an integral component of modern asset markets. In two experimental markets for long-lived correlated assets we examine the impact of alternative types of arbitrage-seeking algorithms. These arbitrage robot traders vary in their latency and whether they make or take market...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013308153

Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets

Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013373101

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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets

Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets

Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2021

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013317671

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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Wolfers, Justin - 2006

Book / Working Paper

Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Wolfers, Justin - 2006

Book / Working Paper

Testing market regulations in experimental asset markets : the case of margin purchases

Füllbrunn, Sascha; Neugebauer, Tibor - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013389390

Sentiment Analysis of Artificial Stock Markets

Di Giuseppe, Michael - 2021

This study will examine a dataset that contains 352 observations with 36 distinct variables. The dataset reflects people's thoughts and sentiments regarding a realistic fiction stock market game. The reason for analyzing this data is to identify any trends or patterns that might explain why...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013215100

Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2021

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013224375

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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

Leigh, Andrew - 2011

Book / Working Paper

Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

Leigh, Andrew - 2006

Book / Working Paper

The emergence of markets and artificial market experiments

Taniguchi, Kazuhisa - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013363377

Default agent set for artificial futures market simulation

Nakajima, Yoshihiro; Mori, Naoki; Aruka, Yūji - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013363380

Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012233309

Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections

Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank - 2020

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012239137

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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections

Liu, Laura - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections

Liu, Laura - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Over-the-counter versus double auction in asset markets with near-zero-intelligence traders

Lu, Dong; Zhan, Yaosong - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013539524

Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets

Angelini, Giovanni - 2020

We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012845884

Agent-based artificial financial market with evolutionary algorithm

Chen, Yan; Xu, Zezhou; Yu, Wenqiang - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014413977

Thou shalt not trade : an analysis of the violations of no-trade predictions in experimental asset markets

Kleinlercher, Daniel; Stöckl, Thomas - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013337834

Experimental Asset Markets with An Indefinite Horizon

Duffy, John - 2020

We study indefinitely-lived assets in experimental markets and find that the traded prices of these assets are on average about 40% of the risk neutral fundamental value. Neither uncertainty about the value of total dividend payments nor horizon uncertainty about the duration of trade can...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012848608

Improving decisions with market information : an experiment on corporate prediction markets

Dianat, Ahrash; Siemroth, Christoph - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012487741

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Improving Decisions With Market Information : An Experiment on Corporate Prediction Markets

Dianat, Ahrash - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Asset market bubbles in an experiment with sequential information releases

Kluger, Brian D. - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013453752

The 'Write' Size of Trading Behavior : Overconfidence, Prices, and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

Bogan, Vicki L. - 2020

This study analyzes the role that overconfidence plays in investor trading behavior. Using a unique measure of confidence (signature size) with an experimental economics approach, we find that those who are more confident bid significantly higher for assets in simulated trading exercises. This...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012852016

Dynamic learning and market making in spread betting markets with informed bettors

Birge, John R.; Feng, Yifan; Keskin, N. Bora; Schultz, Adam - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012815721

Price probabilities : a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules

Massari, Filippo - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012589951

The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets

Dai, Min; Jia, Yanwei; Kou, Steven - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012619744

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The Wisdom of the Crowd and Prediction Markets

Dai, Min - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Market Efficiency and Continuous Information Arrival : Evidence from Prediction Markets

Docherty, Paul - 2019

Two regularities in financial economics are that prices underreact to news events and that they display short-term momentum. This paper tests for the presence of these regularities in prediction markets offered by the betting exchange Betfair on the 2008 Ryder Cup Golf Competition. Betfair...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012905940

On the observational implications of knightian uncertainty

Hassett, Kevin A.; Zhong, Weifeng - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012437683

Behavioural effects and market dynamics in field and laboratory experimental asset markets

Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Sornette, Didier - 2019

A vast literature investigating behavioural underpinnings of financial bubbles and crashes relies on laboratory experiments. However, it is not yet clear how findings generated in a highly artificial environment relate to the human behaviour in the wild. It is of concern that the laboratory...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012001796

An agent-based prediction market : a case study of xFuture in Taiwan

Chie, Bin-Tzong; Pai, Chi-Ling - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011704740

Mind, body, bubble! : psychological and biophysical dimensions of behavior in experimental asset markets

Butler, David J.; Cheung, Stephen L. - 2018

Asset market bubbles and crashes are a major source of economic instability and inefficiency. Sometimes ascribed to animal spirits or irrational exuberance, their source remains imperfectly understood. Experimental methods can isolate systematic deviations from an asset's fundamental value in a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011870688

Agent-based simulation of an artificial financial market : effect of short selling on market stability

Bensaid, Khalid; Aboulaich, Rajae - 2020

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012631186