The expansion of wind power has the potential to make a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. While wind power generates positive externalities at the global level by reducing carbon dioxide, it also generates negative externalities at the local level, such as noise pollution...

This study measured the individual and conjoint effects of Argentina's primaries and first- and second-voting presidential election results, as well as their post-election comparative effects, on the stock market performance of its most relevant economic sectors. Within four different estimation...

Unter der neuen US-Regierung zeichnet sich ein Wandel im Verbraucherschutz ab. Der Fokus liegt auf Marktmechanismen und dem Abbau regulatorischer Vorgaben. Eine mögliche Folge sind intransparente Preismodelle. Studien zeigen, dass diese Verbraucher:innen systematisch zu höheren Ausgaben...

The election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as President of Senegal on March 24, 2024, after a turbulent electoral process, reflects the resilience of Senegal's democratic institutions. It provides an opportunity to strengthen transparent governance and combat inequality. It was the first time since...

The growing political polarization may influence a critical input for policymaking: people's economic expectations. This study examines whether political preferences shape individuals' forecasts for key economic indicators (using a preregistered online experiment in the context of Argentina's...

This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters' views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Depending on its outcome, the election can have a differential effect on Germany's foreign trade policy due to intensive trade ties...

This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...

Die anstehenden US-Präsidentschaftswahlen sind wegweisend. Sollte Donald Trump wiedergewählt werden, hat er im Bereich der Handelspolitik umfangreiche Zollerhöhungen - auch gegenüber der Europäischen Union (EU) - angedroht. Die EU hat angekündigt, im Zweifel mit eigenen Vergeltungszöllen...

In this paper, we investigate the effect of Donald Trump's campaign for coal during his successful race for the White House in 2016. We use a twofold empirical strategy. First, we estimate an event study model to show the change in Republican Party shares in coal counties in 2016 relative to...

Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, favor protectionism, but Trump to an extreme degree The joint protectionism is mainly directed against Chinese technology Trump favors mass deportation of immigrants, while the Democrats want orderly immigration Nobody cares much about the...

The Trump Administration enacted deficit-financed tax cuts, and the Trump campaign has proposed doubling down on that approach. The Biden-Harris Administration added less to national debt and shows more commitment to fiscal responsibility The Trump Administration consistently enacted tax...

The 2024 US presidential election will determine who will work with Congress to address three major fiscal issues: the expiration of key tax reforms from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the ongoing trade war with China, and the trajectory of the federal debt Vice President Kamala Harris...

Foreign trade and macroeconomic policies under a Harris administration would largely provide for continuity with the Biden administration, while policies under another Trump administration would have the potential to be highly disruptive Regardless of who becomes the next president, US...

The world is in a period of profound political and economic disruption The outcome of the US presidential election has the potential to accelerate this or contribute to the construction of a reformed and more legitimate international order How competition between the US and China is managed will...

A possible re-election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 could entail a significant upheaval for the world trading order, if he fulfills his announcements to raise tariffs, mainly in order to reduce the US trade deficit. Such steps would not only have a negative effect on the...

In April 2022, the French presidential elections were held, where in the second round, two candidates who embodied the Europeanist and pro-establishment option (Macron) and the populist and anti-system option (Le Pen) faced each other. This situation, combined with the high level of spatial...

Pástor and Veronesi (2012) develop a general equilibrium model to examine the relation between policy uncertainty and asset prices. Extending to their study, we develop a novel measure of firms’ uncertainty about the change in bilateral trade flows between each country and the US. We...

Politicians’ behavioral changes as an election nears have typically been attributed to the incentive effects of an election. I document that behavioral changes can occur even for unelected judges. Using data from 1925-2002 on U.S. appellate judges, who are appointed for life, I find that just...

This paper uses the event-study methodology to investigate the effect of the Presidential Turkish elections in 2023 on Borsa Istanbul returns. The data used in this study cover the period from 13 June 2022, through 7 June 2023. We employ a market model to study the effect of two election rounds...

The influence of misinformation on the political decision-making process became a major concern in the United States after the 2016 Presidential election. We study the impact of "fake news" in the 2020 election cycle by conducting an online experiment the day before the "Super Tuesday" primary...

Henry, Zhuravskaya, and Guriev (2022) examine whether people are willing to share "alternative facts" espoused by right-wing populist parties before the 2019 European elections in France and how this interacted with the availability of fact-checking information. They find that both imposed and...

We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...

We argue that standard models that solve the paradox of voting do a bad job explaining the frequency of very close elections. We instead model head-to-head elections as a competition between incentive schemes to turn out voters. We show that elections are either heavily contested, and decided by...

We compare the Electoral College and the popular vote in a stylized two-candidate, three-district election game. Under the Electoral College, the winner of a district acquires all votes of the electorate; under the popular vote, each candidate acquires the votes s/he actually wins in each...

By September 2016, the US Intelligence Community was quite certain that Russian citizens, organizations and government agencies were interfering in the US presidential election campaign in an effort to weaken the US political system and install their preferred candidate in the White House. The...