This paper investigates the degree of persistence of the private debt-to-GDP ratio in 43 OECE countries by estimating the fractional integration parameter of each series. Almost all of them are found to be highly persistent, with orders of integration around or above 1. The only exception is...

This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regimes and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983-2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the...

We quantify the total stock of balances eligible for the 2022 federal student loan forgiveness policy and explore which groups benefit most. Roughly $441 billion in balances are eligible for forgiveness, which would leave almost 40 percent of federal borrowers with no remaining balance. The...

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters. We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers' financial stress. We focus on the arrears of...

In Australia, financial hardship caused by over-indebtedness is no longer only experienced by the most vulnerable social group but is now prevalent among the general population. This scoping paper analyses the money advice and debt management system in Australia with emphasis on their...

Over-indebtedness, defined as the inability for a household to meet both essential living expenses and debt repayments, continues to be a significant phenomenon throughout Europe. The problem plays out differently in various countries depending on the relevant credit market, culture around...

This scoping paper outlines credit counselling and debt management structures in the United States and their effectiveness in improving consumers' financial management status. First, various public and private credit counselling systems are explained with a focus on each institution's roles and...

We explore how personality traits are related to household borrowing behavior. Using survey data representative for the Netherlands, we consider the Big Five personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, agreeableness, extraversion and neuroticism), as well as the belief that one is master of...

This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regimes and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983-2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the...

Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently subdued...

This study empirically analyzes the effect of debt origin on investment efficiency. According to previous studies that report that the quality of financial reporting may vary depending on the origin of the debt, the empirical analysis predicted that the effects of the origin of the debt on...

In this study, we examine how public and private debt buildup is related to currency depreciation pressure. Our empirical analysis of a panel dataset of 59 advanced and emerging markets reveals that both private and public debt exacerbate currency vulnerability. However, the evidence of a...

We examine recent regulation requiring US municipal governments to disclose private debt. We show that governments fail to disclose 55-80% of reportable debt events and that, conditional on disclosure, filings often omit contract details essential for bond pricing. Non-compliant issuers are also...

We examine recent regulation requiring US municipal governments to disclose private debt. We show that governments fail to disclose 55-80% of reportable debt events and that, conditional on disclosure, filings often omit contract details essential for bond pricing. Non-compliant issuers are also...

This paper investigates how the expansion of social insurance affects households’ accumulation of debt. Insurance can reduce reliance on debt by lessening the financial impact of adverse events like illness and job loss. But it can also weaken the motive to self-insure through savings, and...

We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, education specific productivity shocks, and catastrophic...

This paper evaluates the asymmetric transmission effects of housing wealth, household debt and financial assets on consumption spending in Greece over the period 1999Q4 to 2017Q4. We apply the Enders and Siklos (2001) methodology and use Stevans’s (2004) modification to capture these effects...

Unlike labor income, human capital is inseparable from individuals and does not accrue to creditors at default. As a consequence, human capital investment should be more resilient to “debt overhang” than labor supply. We develop a dynamic model displaying this important difference. We find...

We study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks. We build a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME) that experiences a current account reversal. Households' portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key...

Borrowing for education has increased rapidly in the past several decades, such that the majority of non-housing debt on US households’ balance sheets is now student loan debt. This paper analyzes the implications of student loan borrowing for later-life economic well-being, with a focus on...

This paper discusses the financial sustainability of demand-led growth models. We assume a supermultiplier growth model in which household consumption is the autonomous component of demand that drives growth and discuss the financial sustainability of such dynamics of growth from the perspective...

We use an agent-based stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy without technological change that considers different classes of households, status consumption and a Minskyan banking sector to analyze the relationship between rising saving rates, the accumulation and distribution of...

This paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult...

This paper studies the direct impact of households' debt on consumption over the business cycle. We use household-level panel data for Spain, and focus on a interesting period of analysis, 2002-2017, characterized by large variations in leverage, consumption, and asset prices. We find that debt...

Dieser Report analysiert die steigenden Risiken auf dem chinesischen Finanzmarkt und die aktuellen Spannungen auf dem chinesischen Immobilienmarkt. Seit der Einführung der sogenannten drei roten Linien und der Verschärfung der Regelung zu den Kreditaufnahmen für die Unternehmen sind einige...

This article looks at over-indebtedness in Germany and its current status and trends. COVID-19 created increased attention on private debt and over-indebtedness. Various studies within the last two years show the severe financial impact of the pandemic; the situation has only eased in phases, but...

The corona pandemic had a considerable impact on consumers. The difficult situation in numerous sectors of the economy has led to financial burdens for many households. Despite repeated warnings announcing significantly increasing debts, the number of new payment arrears during the past two...

Over-indebtedness of private households has been a problem in Germany for decades. Over-indebtedness depends on both the economic and financial vulnerability of people and their resilience potential. Social, economic and individual causes and triggers overlap in the process of over-indebtedness....

This article describes the development of the needs-weighted net household income of persons in private households in Germany since the year 2000. It also focuses on the presentation of the prevalence and amount of credit debts of private households. The central result is that the share of...

Eine Stärkung der Sozialen Schuldnerberatung in Deutschland ist sozial und ökonomisch sinnvoll. Mit vier Ansatzpunkten könnte diese Stärkung bewirkt werden. Ob und, wenn ja, welche dieser Ansatzpunkte in den nächsten Jahren realisiert werden können, hängt allerdings wesentlich vom...