We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound...

A little over a decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Shortly after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade-related developments associated with...

In 2015, Goldman Sachs closed its BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) fund after years of losses and plummeting assets. Emerging markets had, once again, turned into submerging markets. Their dependence on “developed” markets and established institutions had failed them in a post-Global...

A neglected aspect of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is their protectionist potential. In times of a stagnating World Trade Organization (WTO), growing economic nationalism and skepticism about the merits of free trade and trade agreements, the paper examines to what extent recently signed...

The global crisis and the reactions of countries to the crisis did not spread the 1930's weather conditions. This situation caused relief. However, it does not provide for policies that will slow down globalization and growth. The worldwide creeping has led to increased protectionism and more...

Import regulations are globally the most prevalent form of intervention in international trade. The regulations should, under rules of the WTO, protect consumers and the environment but can be used to protect producers. We investigate the ambiguity of intent. We set out a model that when applied...

In response to the widespread use of food safety standards as a tool for restricting international trade, this study attempts to answer whether Southeast Asian countries follow this protectionist trend or not. It employs the political economy framework and focuses on the case of the...

We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input-output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian...

A decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Less than a month after the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade related developments associated with the...

The debate on trade wars and currency wars has re-emerged since the Great recession of 2009. We study the two forms of non-cooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product level data...

The evidence demonstrating that nations gain from trade is overwhelming. However, trade liberalization can cause disruption to firms and workers, and its gains and losses are spread unevenly. While many gain from trade, import surges have sometimes undermined the economic viability of whole...

President Trump’s actions on trade have not quite matched his rhetoric, but the worst may be to come. Though the political opposition to his protectionism is formidable, so are his conviction and determination and he possesses a wide array of instruments to pursue his goals. The trade doctrine...

A little over a decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Shortly after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade-related developments associated with...

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors....

We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound...

We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the...

Die USA stehen am Beginn eines Wahljahres. Die Wahlen am 3. November 2020 werden prägenden Einfluss auf das transatlantische Verhältnis und auf globale Kooperationsstrukturen auf vielfältigen Themengebieten haben. Dabei geht es nicht nur um die Frage, ob die aktuelle Administration für...

This paper provides a rationale for the revival of protectionism, based on the rise of the educated class. In a trade model with heterogeneous workers and entrepreneurs, globalization generates aggregate gains but has distributional effects, which can be attenuated through taxation. By playing a...

Trade regulation can create jobs in the sectors it protects or promotes, but almost always at the expense of destroying a roughly equivalent number elsewhere in the economy. At a product-specific or micro level and in the short term, controlling trade could reduce the offending imports and save...

Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of "global value chains" (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level...

Countries pass through different stages of structural transformation. In the early stage of development, economic activity is dominated by agriculture and mining. As a country develops, firms adopt new technology and move toward industrialization and faster economic growth. Eventually, the...

"The US-China trade war is propagating uncertainties within the global trade order, weakening global value chains and the WTO system. These uncertainties pose a considerable threat to the Korean economy which is heavily dependent on foreign trade. To tackle this, the Korean government needs to...

We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. The benefits of trade liberalization are widely acknowledged, including better...

The views of Keynes on Trade policy are clear: Protectionism as well as hoarding a surplus in the balance of payment are wrong. This paper analyzes the optimality of protectionist policies and having a surplus in the context of the international political system. I show that in the situation of...

This study aims to assess the protection for Vietnamese agriculture under trade liberalization based on the input-output approach. From a theoretical perspective, the authors develop a general framework to estimate the effective rate of protection using an input-output table, taking into account...

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new cross-country database identifying 50 populist presidents and prime ministers 1900-2018. We find that the economic...

In Deutschland und Europa ließ die Übernahme des Roboterherstellers KUKA AG durch die chinesische Midea Group Co., Ltd. im Jahr 2017 die Sorge vor einem Ausverkauf moderner Technologie an China aufkommen, das im Rahmen seiner industriepolitischen Aufholstrategie etwa im Rahmen von...

In 2019 and the early months of 2020, global trade faced two major albeit very different shocks, namely the United States-China trade war and the cascading response of the countries around the world to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the former situation involved a pair of centrally-placed trading...

Motivated by a hitherto largely unproductive discourse on the topic, this dissertation seeks to answer three simple yet fundamental questions: What is financial protectionism? How does one measure it? What are some of its determinants? After having established the ill-defined nature of financial...