This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions...

This paper quantifies how demand and supply shocks transmit to yields in Colombia's sovereign bond market by estimating investor-level demand elasticities and translating them into equilibrium price effects. Using investor-security microdata and two complementary identification strategies, I...

This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe...

We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the...

Using 33 years of intraday Treasury data, we provide the first high-frequency evidence on auction-day price pressure: yields rise in the hours before auction and reverse afterward. This pressure strengthens when dealers face tighter risk-bearing constraints and weakens when investor demand is...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default...

This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions...

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors' inflation expectations and associated inflation risk premia in South African sovereign bonds. The...

We assess whether the Fed's asset purchases can be tailored to either restore market functioning or provide economic stimulus. When the communicated goal is restoring market functioning and purchases' implementation is flexible, flow effects are significant: relative price deviations narrow....

Emerging market economies (EMEs) regularly tap domestic and international capital markets through scheduled sovereign bond auctions. In this paper, we leverage a novel dataset covering over 75,000 sovereign issuance events and 20,000 securities from 20 EMEs between the early 2000s and 2023 to...

Russia's isolation from global financial markets and government programmes to support bank lending initially fuelled a wartime lending boom in Russia. With economic growth now stalled and borrowing costs rising, lending growth has slowed. This shift, in conjunction with increased public sector...

German government debt is considered a safe asset in times of turbulence. We estimate the impact of changes in the risk appetite of global investors on weekly investment fund flows into the German sovereign bond market. Our key contribution is to allow the impact of such shocks to depend on the...

This paper examines whether the SEC's mandate for central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions could enable all-to-all trading and support the development of a standardized term repo market. By mitigating counterparty risk through central clearing, cash lenders may become more willing to...

I develop a model-based definition of time-varying sovereign bond safety, and apply it empirically by constructing a news-based index, the FLY, that measures global safe-assets demand. The FLY captures flight-to-safety episodes, the savings glut, and natural interest rate declines. Estimated FLY...

Once a famous tale of conquest, law and foreign bond markets, the saga of the Silesian Bonds of 1734-37 is missing from the literature on sovereign debt. The Silesian Bonds were among the earliest foreign currency sovereign bonds issued. They go into the market 84 years prior to the 1818...

Central bank collateral policy specifies which assets banks can pledge as collateral to obtain central bank funding and is an important determinant of liquidity in the banking system. We propose a high-frequency identification approach to study the systematic effects of central bank collateral...

This study examines public debt sustainability in the Eurozone by estimating fiscal reaction functions that assess how fiscal balances respond to rising public debt under heterogeneous macroeconomic conditions. Using annual panel data for 20 EU countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ fixed...

State-contingent debt (SCD) instruments have been proposed as an improvement to sovereign debt markets, but their issuance costs are not well understood. We estimate the SCD premium at issuance and for more than a decade thereafter, employing a quasi-twin bond strategy that uses two very similar...

This policy paper examines the effects of the introduction of the MiFID II / MiFIR framework on the transparency regime for sovereign bonds. The main purpose of the framework is to provide markets with real-time information and lower market asymmetries, thereby increasing liquidity in the...

How do geopolitical factors ripple through the European sovereign bond yields? And does this effect differ between Eastern and Western European markets? These two crucial, but not yet fully answered questions motivated us to investigate the link between geopolitical factors and sovereign bond...

Multi-unit common value auctions in which bidders submit demand functions are used for a variety of purposes, including selling government debt (Treasury auctions) and allocating liquidity (repo auctions). Typically, either a discriminatory or a uniform-price format is used. In this paper, we...

This study investigates the nonlinear and regime-dependent relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads across a panel of developed and emerging economies from February 2010 to March 2025. Utilizing the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression...

Research shows that foreign asset expropriation narrows long-term bond spreads, resulting in lower borrowing costs. However, no empirical studies have investigated the effects of expropriation on sovereign bond ratings. Bondholders and sovereign bond issuers track ratings by credit rating...

In response to the scarce evidence regarding herd behaviour in emerging and frontier debt markets, this paper investigates the potential mispricing of MENA sovereign risk. We explore whether this mispricing results from international investor herding, where MENA debt assets are collectively...

This study estimates the zero-coupon yield curves for Turkish government nominal bonds from February 2005 to June 2022 using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson parametric model. We implement a weighting scheme in the objective function, where squared pricing errors are weighted by the inverse of the...