Search Results - subject_exact:"Rationale Erwartung" - EconBiz

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651971

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Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

The Lucas critique holds that policy evaluations based on historical correlations can fail because policy changes alter expectation formation. We develop a new approach to monetary policy evaluation that addresses this concern: we elicit expectations under alternative policy scenarios from...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654935

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Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Expectations versus reality in Business formation

Dinlersoz, Emin Murat; Ma, Yueyuan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609727

Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605616

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Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026 - This version: 26 April 2026

Edition: This version: 26 April 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Expectations are central to models of economic and financial decision-making. Yet in practice, individuals are often inattentive and, when asked, report fragile, context-dependent expectations that are only weakly linked to decisions. This raises the question to what extent they hold such...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015634022

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Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Expectations are central to models of economic and financial decision-making. Yet in practice, individuals are often inattentive and, when asked, report fragile, context-dependent expectations that are only weakly linked to decisions. This raises the question to what extent they hold such...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632261

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Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625414

Welfare effect of network compatibility promotion under strategic R&D competition : the role of consumer expectations in a hotelling model

Toshimitsu, Tsuyoshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626426

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626903

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Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

We study why inflation responds differently to economic activity over time. Using survey data covering the universe of Japanese firms, we show that firms are unable to perfectly distinguish aggregate from sector-specific demand changes, leading to positively correlated expectations about these...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632269

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Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy without an anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2026

Policymakers often cite the risk that inflation expectations might "de-anchor" as a key reason for responding forcefully to inflationary shocks. We develop a model to analyze this trade-off and to quantify the benefits of stable long-run inflation expectations. In our framework, households and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627083

The role of inflation expectations in the path to 3% : understanding expectations formation and calibrating the models

Foresto, Anis; Reid, Monique; Steinbach, Rudi; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639521

Learning about inflation and exchange rates

Beuermann, Diether W.; Bottan, Nicolas L.; Hoffmann, Bridget - 2026

We study how expert forecasts about inflation and nominal exchange rates affect households' inflation perceptions, exchange rate beliefs, and later durable-goods holdings in a small open economy. Using a randomized information experiment in Suriname, we provide households with expert forecasts...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656704

Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2026 - Last updated: April 10, 2026

Recessions are often accompanied by heightened uncertainty. We build an imperfect-information New Keynesian model in which procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty, and the nonlinear structure allows for a precautionary saving motive. We show theoretically...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651854

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Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653253

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Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Attention-dependent monetary transmission to household beliefs

Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul - 2026

The expectations channel of monetary policy is state dependent because households endogenously adjust attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a behavioral framework in which attention trades off forecast accuracy against cognitive cost, so monetary policy operates through an...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673440

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Attention-dependent monetary transmission to household beliefs

Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation expectations and cognitive uncertainty

Beckmann, Joscha; Brunne, Jennifer; Heinrich, Timo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072666

Do heterogenous beliefs drive the US business cycles?

Cozzi, Guido; Di Dio, Fabio - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072703

Skill substitution, expectations, and the business cycle

Leibing, Andreas - 2026

Using administrative data on more than six million German high school graduates from 1995 to 2018, this paper studies how labor market conditions around high school graduation affect postsecondary skill investments. Exploiting cyclical deviations from secular statespecific trends, I find...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069205

House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064173

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House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Exchange rate expectations and aggregate dynamics

Pozdnyakova, Nadia - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671555

The spectral approach to linear rational expectations models

Sadoon, Majid M. al- - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016086284

Endogenous beliefs and social influence in a simple macroeconomic framework

Terranova, Roberta - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015485680

Consumption Wedges : Measuring and Diagnosing Distortions

Indarte, Sasha; Kluender, Raymond; Malmendier, Ulrike; … - 2026

Ample empirical evidence documents deviations from the canonical consumption-savings model; yet, it remains difficult to assess the roles of different underlying distortions, such as financial constraints and behavioral preferences. We develop a sufficient-statistics approach that measures...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611195

From zero-intelligence to Bayesian learning : the effect of rationality on market efficiency

Giachini, Daniele; Mousavi, Shabnam; Ottaviani, Matteo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015485687

Gemmi, Luca; Valchev, Rosen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561055

Comparative analysis of the portfolio-balance models of exchange rate determination

Bhattacharyya, Karnikaa; Deb, Kaveri - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670114

Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market

Fiechter, Chad; Kuethe, Todd; Langemeier, Michael R.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015166744

Macroeconomic expectations : formation, measurement, and consequences

Enders, Zeno; Trautmann, Stefan T.; Vinogradov, Dmitri V. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073836

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323365

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Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Heuristic macroeconomic expectations

Xiao, Wei; Ji, Yangyang - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016074217

Frequency and severity of current account reversals : an analysis with a rational expectations regime switching DSGE model

Hamano, Masashige; Murakami, Yuki - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323637

The impact of an autonomous AI trader on outcomes in experimental asset markets

Ackert, Lucy F.; Mohamadean, Ahmed; Shehata, Mohamed; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072783

Uncovering attention heterogeneity

Boccanfuso, Jérémy; Neri, Luca - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373959

Incomplete Information and Self-Fulfilling Inflation Dynamics—Lucas meets Keynes

Benhabib, Jess; Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi - 2026

This paper incorporates the Lucas (1973) island model into a standard DSGE framework. It demonstrates that self-fulfilling stochastic inflation equilibria, which are driven by intrinsic uncertainty or pure sentiments, can exist under rational expectations. Furthermore, it shows that these...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016063359

Fiscal forecasting rationality among expert forecasters

Chocobar, Belen; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374211

Rounding up : complexity, satisficing, and bias in inflation expectations

McMahon, Michael; Petersen, Luba; Rholes, Ryan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626815

Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets : a Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach

Naifar, Nader - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374402

How do we learn about the long run?

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2025

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374544

Seemingly anchored inflation expectations

Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667703

Expectation conformity in strategic cognition

Pavan, Alessandro; Tirole, Jean - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668335

Uncertainty in the formation of inflation expectations in Japan : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM

Fukunaga, Ichiro; Kishaba, Yui; Shibata, Nao; Yoneyama, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330643

Soft landing and inflation scares

Bullard, James B.; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191492

Sticking to their guns : short-horizon exchange rate expectations

Kremens, Lukas; Varela, Liliana - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616747

Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option

Massari, Filippo; Newton, Jonathan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016081438

Behavioral impulse responses

Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Siriwardane, Emil N. - 2025 - This version: November 7, 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015196772

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359371

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Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329827

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Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359371

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Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Momentum mechanisms under heterogeneous beliefs

Yan, Yu; Tong, Yan; Wang, Yiming - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359778

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