Search Results - subject_exact:"Rationale Erwartung"

Endogenous beliefs and social influence in a simple macroeconomic framework

Terranova, Roberta - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015485680

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

The Lucas critique holds that policy evaluations based on historical correlations can fail because policy changes alter expectation formation. We develop a new approach to monetary policy evaluation that addresses this concern: we elicit expectations under alternative policy scenarios from...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654379

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Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Macro theory with measured expectations

Luetticke, Ralph; Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

From zero-intelligence to Bayesian learning : the effect of rationality on market efficiency

Giachini, Daniele; Mousavi, Shabnam; Ottaviani, Matteo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015485687

Expectations versus reality in Business formation

Dinlersoz, Emin Murat; Ma, Yueyuan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609727

Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market

Fiechter, Chad; Kuethe, Todd; Langemeier, Michael R.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015166744

Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605616

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Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026 - This version: 26 April 2026

Edition: This version: 26 April 2026

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal forecasting rationality among expert forecasters

Chocobar, Belen; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374211

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Expectations are central to models of economic and financial decision-making. Yet in practice, individuals are often inattentive and, when asked, report fragile, context-dependent expectations that are only weakly linked to decisions. This raises the question to what extent they hold such...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624815

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Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Do people have economic expectations?

Andre, Peter; Chopra, Felix; Michels, Luca; Wohlfart, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625414

Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets : a Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach

Naifar, Nader - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374402

Momentum mechanisms under heterogeneous beliefs

Yan, Yu; Tong, Yan; Wang, Yiming - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359778

Welfare effect of network compatibility promotion under strategic R&D competition : the role of consumer expectations in a hotelling model

Toshimitsu, Tsuyoshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626426

Higher order expectations, learning, and sentiment pricing dynamics

Li, Jinfang - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359880

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

We study why inflation responds differently to economic activity over time. Using survey data covering the universe of Japanese firms, we show that firms are unable to perfectly distinguish aggregate from sector-specific demand changes, leading to positively correlated expectations about these...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644462

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Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Emergence and evolution of financial economics

Šlampiaková, Lea - 2025

This paper aims to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the theories and concepts that have formed the foundational link between two separate academic fields: finance and economics, resulting in the emergent field of financial economics. The main schools of thought can be divided, with a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418664

Monetary policy without an anchor

Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro; Jørgensen, Kasper; … - 2026

Policymakers often cite the risk that inflation expectations might "de-anchor" as a key reason for responding forcefully to inflationary shocks. We develop a model to analyze this trade-off and to quantify the benefits of stable long-run inflation expectations. In our framework, households and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627083

Direct elicitation of parametric belief distributions : an application to inflation expectations

Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466342

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Direct elicitation of parametric belief distributions : an application to inflation expectations

Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The role of inflation expectations in the path to 3% : understanding expectations formation and calibrating the models

Foresto, Anis; Reid, Monique; Steinbach, Rudi; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639521

Household income expectations : the role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467868

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Household income expectations : the role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Household income expectations : the role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Learning about inflation and exchange rates

Beuermann, Diether W.; Bottan, Nicolas L.; Hoffmann, Bridget - 2026

We study how expert forecasts about inflation and nominal exchange rates affect households' inflation perceptions, exchange rate beliefs, and later durable-goods holdings in a small open economy. Using a randomized information experiment in Suriname, we provide households with expert forecasts...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656704

A tale of inattentiveness and the loss function : a model for household-level macroeconomic expectations

Gerotto, Luca; Paradiso, Antonio; Pellizzari, Paolo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015470621

Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2026 - Last updated: April 10, 2026

Recessions are often accompanied by heightened uncertainty. We build an imperfect-information New Keynesian model in which procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty, and the nonlinear structure allows for a precautionary saving motive. We show theoretically...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651854

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Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Supply shocks in the fog : the role of endogenous uncertainty

Antonova, Anastasiia; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; Poilly, Céline - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Slow learning

Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653253

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Slow Learning

Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Earn more tomorrow : overconfidence, income expectations, and consumer indebtedness

Grohmann, Antonia; Menkhoff, Lukas; Merkle, Christoph; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471219

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Earn more tomorrow : overconfidence, income expectations and consumer indebtedness

Grohmann, Antonia; Menkhoff, Lukas; Merkle, Christoph; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias

Chen, Qiang; Yin, Zechen - 2025

This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts-ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472808

Attention-dependent monetary transmission to household beliefs

Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul - 2026

The expectations channel of monetary policy is state dependent because households endogenously adjust attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a behavioral framework in which attention trades off forecast accuracy against cognitive cost, so monetary policy operates through an...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673440

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Attention-dependent monetary transmission to household beliefs

Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul - 2025

Book / Working Paper

House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064173

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House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2025 - This version: January 2025

Edition: This version: January 2025

Book / Working Paper

House price expectations and inflation expectations : evidence from survey data

Dhamija, Vedanta; Nunes, Ricardo; Tara, Roshni - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? : a long-run perspective

Kuang, Pei; Tang, Li; Zhang, Renbin; Zhang, Tongbin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449995

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671028

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Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Long-run inflation expectations

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Expectational equilibria and Drèze equilibria in many-to-one matching models

Herings, Peter Jean-Jacques - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015457844

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Expectational equilibria and Drèze equilibria in many-to-one matching models

Herings, Peter Jean-Jacques - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015441517

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Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Frequency and severity of current account reversals : an analysis with a rational expectations regime switching DSGE model

Hamano, Masashige; Murakami, Yuki - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323637

Asymmetric information, disagreement, and the valuation of debt and equity

Banerjee, Snehal; Breon-Drish, Bradyn; Smith, Kevin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564559

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Asymmetric Information, Disagreement, and the Valuation of Debt and Equity

Banerjee, Snehal; Breon-Drish, Bradyn M.; Smith, Kevin - 2022

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Uncovering attention heterogeneity

Boccanfuso, Jérémy; Neri, Luca - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373959

How do we learn about the long run?

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2025

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374544

The impact of prices on analyst cash flow expectations : reconciling subjective beliefs data with rational discount rate variation

Chaudhry, Aditya - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015571159

Uncertainty in the formation of inflation expectations in Japan : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM

Fukunaga, Ichiro; Kishaba, Yui; Shibata, Nao; Yoneyama, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330643

Nonlinear dynamics of a simple behavioral model of inflation

Agliari, Anna; Bignami, Fernando; Pecora, Nicoló - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594091

Soft landing and inflation scares

Bullard, James B.; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191492

Non-response bias in expectation surveys : different perceptions and expectations of financial matters from "early quitters"

Huang, Ruichen - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015550490

Great expectations : a tale of two transitions : a survey of the evidence on expectations in transition economies

Girardi, Daniele; Veneziani, Roberto; Wengle, Susanne - 2025

Over a quarter of the world’s population lives in countries that have undertaken transitions from central planning to some form of market-based coordination. These transitions entail far-reaching and complex economic and institutional changes and have had widely divergent trajectories....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015554175

Behavioral impulse responses

Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Siriwardane, Emil N. - 2025 - This version: November 7, 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015196772

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359371

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Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions

Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Recent developments in DSGE modelling : beyond fire

Levine, Paul; Pearlman, Joseph; Yang, Bo; Pham, Son - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556405

Modeling inflation expectations in forward-looking interest rate and money growth rules

Chen, Zhengyang; Valcarcel, Victor J. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556420

Equilibrium with asymmetric information and restricted participation : the no-arbitrage characterization

Boisdeffre, Lionel de - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420532

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Equilibrium with asymmetric information and restricted participation : the no-arbitrage characterization

Boisdeffre, Lionel de - 2024

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An experimental analysis of contagion in financial markets

Peeters, Ronald; Veiga, Helena; Vorsatz, Marc - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556432

Overreaction in expectations under signal extraction : experimental evidence

Duffy, John; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Yoo, Donghoon - 2025

We experimentally evaluate three behavioral models of expectation formation that predict overreaction to new information: overconfidence in private signals, misperceptions about the persistence of the data-generating process (DGP), and diagnostic expectations. In our main experiment,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463619

Learning models from prices

Dindo, Pietro; Massari, Filippo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015465964

A Dynare toolbox for social learning expectations

Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; Vermandel, Gauthier - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556465