Identifying the causal effects of monetary policy is challenging due to the endogeneity of policy decisions. In recent years, high-frequency monetary policy surprises have become a popular identification strategy. To serve as a valid instrument, monetary policy surprises must be correlated with...

We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing of key risks when setting policy. When risks to the outlook are balanced, the...

We ask whether ECB communication outside monetary policy meeting days moves the EUR/USD exchange rate within minutes. We build an event study on one-minute prices and a Reuters-based corpus of 1,868 statements coded as dovish, neutral, or hawkish from 2008 to 2016. Identification combines strict...

We analyze 481 speeches by FOMC members since 2007, excluding official press conferences. Combining high-frequency financial data with text analysis, we identify monetary policy surprises and measure each speech's similarity to the Chair's press conference preceding it. On average, monetary...

This paper discusses communication with the general public about financial stability. The paper first draws parallels with the literature on monetary policy communication. Next, it outlines additional challenges facing communication on financial stability. In particular, a broad concept such as...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) communication in shaping market expectations and real economic outcomes. Using a transformer-based large language model (LLM) fine-tuned to ECB communication, the tone of monetary policy statements from 2003 to 2025...

This paper discusses the detailed review report of Republic of Moldova's Central Bank Transparency Code review. The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has emerged from a challenging history regarding trust and accountability, significantly influencing its current transparency and communication...

This paper presents a detailed review report of Montenegro's Central Bank Transparency Code review. The transparency of the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBCG)'s legal framework, its mandate, autonomy, and decision-making arrangements have all been strengthened over time, but further improvements...

At the request of the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS), this technical assistance (TA) mission assessed and provided recommendations to enhance the transparency, consistency, and stakeholder engagement of monetary policy and financial stability communication. Strengthening communication in these...

The technical assistance mission evaluated the Central Bank of Suriname's (CBvS) communication on monetary policy and financial stability to enhance transparency, consistency, and stakeholder engagement. Recommendations include institutionalizing structured decision-making with fixed schedules...

This paper introduces a classification framework to analyze central bank communications across four dimensions: topic, communication stance, sentiment, and audience. Using a fine-tuned large language model trained on central bank documents, we classify individual sentences to transform policy...

The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has a strong focus on transparency, building on the Omani Vision 2040. In line with the country's long-term vision, Vision 2040 (see Box 1), the CBO is committed to enhancing its policies and operations in line with international best practices. The Central Bank...

We conducted a randomized field experiment to investigate the impact of direct central bank communication on the monetary policy knowledge and expectations of non-experts. Between 2022 and 2025, at the ECB Visitor Centre, we exposed nearly 5,000 participants from diverse visitor groups to policy...

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also...

We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to precisely analyze how the vocal emo- tions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yields and yield spreads of major euro area economies. This novel...

One of the main goals of launching the EU's second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) and the respective Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR) was to increase the transparency of transactions in financial markets. Prior to MiFID II, transparency requirements in...

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

Different economic agents might respond differently to the same policy action. Information about household and firm heterogeneity can, therefore, enhance central banks' understanding of monetary policy transmission and ultimately its effectiveness. Cross-sectional data can also help central...

In this comment, we computationally reproduce the results of Linos et al. (2024), which shows contrary to researcher and practitioner predictions, that formal government communications are more effective at influencing resident behavior than informal government communications. We succeeded in...

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path...

We analyze how financial stability concerns discussed during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy imple- mentation and communication. Utilizing large language models (LLMs) to analyze FOMC minutes from 1993 to 2022, we measure both...

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...