The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis. This article analyses the impact of mandatory social distancing imposed by lockdown policies and voluntary social distancing triggered by COVID-19 fatality rates on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2020 for a sample...

A large literature on persistence finds that many modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. These studies typically combine unusually high t statistics with severe spatial autocorrelation in residuals, suggesting that some findings may be artefacts...

In Germany, package holidays are an important driver of consumer prices. Several challenges arise when measuring the price development of these bundled travel and accommodation services, such as the quality of accommodation and the timing of booking. Statistical practices are currently based on...

We examine the health impacts of early access to public pension wealth by exploiting a unique policy in Singapore allowing individuals to withdraw a proportion of their pension savings after their 55th birthday. For the identification, we employ a regression discontinuity design by comparing...

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19...

This article develops a Bayesian approach for estimating panel quantile regression with binary outcomes in the presence of correlated random effects. We construct a working likelihood using an asymmetric Laplace (AL) error distribution and combine it with suitable prior distributions to obtain...

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of trade openness and the factors based on the gravity model on the bilateral trade flows between Thailand and Japan. The factors consist of GDP, distance, trade openness, and exchange rate. Bilateral trade is composed of two flows: Thailand’s...

Children of Asian immigrants in most English-speaking destinations have better academic outcomes, yet the underlying causes of their advantages are under-studied. We employ panel time-use diaries by two cohorts of children observed over a decade to present new evidence that children of Asian...

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is a simple and powerful non-parametric technique that automatizes the selection of non-linear terms in regression models. Non-linearities and spatial effects are natural characteristics in numerous spatial hedonic pricing models. In this paper, we...

There is still an ongoing debate on employment effects of minimum wage. Not only the magnitude, but also the direction of the effect is a matter of concern. Economic theory on its own cannot unanimously resolve the dispute as it provides concepts within which both negative and positive effects...

The analysis of sales prices and rents for agricultural land are a classical research topic in agricultural economics. Due to increased dynamic on agricultural land markets, their relationship has gained increased interest recently. The present study contributes to the literature by studying the...

The objective of this paper is to test whether the complete pass-through of exchange rate exists when there are almost no transaction costs and in the environment of competitive market. In general, the literature claims that the pass-through of exchange rate is incomplete due to imperfect...

We study the impact of monetary policy on regional inequality using granular data on economic activity at the city- and county-level in Europe. We document pronounced heterogeneity in the regional patterns of monetary policy transmission. The output response to monetary policy shocks is stronger...

We document how the distribution of exchange rate returns responds to changes in global financial conditions. We measure global financial conditions as the common component of country-specific financial condition indices, computed consistently across a large panel of developed and emerging...

We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. This seems to accurately describe the trajectory of the...

Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) is a technology package consisting of the joint use of improved seeds, organic and inorganic fertilizers. It is increasingly promoted to enhance soil fertility, crop productivity and income of smallholder farmers. While studies find positive effects of...

We consider a situation where the sample design of a survey is modified over time in order to save resources. The former design is a classical large-scale survey. The new design is a mixed mode survey where a smaller classical sample is augmented by records of an online survey. For the online...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

We examine the significance of fourty-one potential covariates of bitcoin returns for the period 2010-2018 (2872 daily observations). The recently introduced principal component-guided sparse regression is employed. We reveal that economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility are among...

Most studies in Vietnam use the Cobb-Douglas production function and its modifications for economic analysis. Extremely rigid presumptions are a main weak point of this functional form, particularly if the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) is equal to one, which hides the role of the ES for...

We assess the investor reaction to a potential introduction of public country-by-country reporting (CbCR) into the European Capital Requirements Directive IV. Estimating cumulative abnormal returns with the help of a multivariate regression model, we find weak significant evidence around our...

This paper studies the relationship between inequalities in working hours and overall earnings inequality in Germany between 2006 and 2014, and the role of declining collective bargaining coverage. Using data from the German Structure of Earnings Survey (GSES), a variance decomposition of...

This study presents three models of multiple linear regressions for forecasting energy demand. The first is a simple multiple linear regression, the second model has an economic interpretation of coefficients (econometric), while the third model is developed in the form of double logarithm...

Renewable energy promotion has been one of the key driving forces of the world’s climate change mitigation strategy. Policymakers have argued that the transition towards a low-carbon energy system has sound economic and social reasoning, since generates economic growth and employment. This...

Executives are often paid for short-term changes in shareholder wealth, but rational shareholders want executives to maximize long-term shareholder wealth. Incentives for short-term and long-term oriented behavior may depend on an executive's level of pay in the distribution, holding other...

We investigate whether estimates of the effect of aid on growth are influenced by authors' careers. We collect data on the careers of 190 authors and apply meta-regression analysis to investigate the impact of authors' age and tenure status on the reported magnitude of aid effectiveness, and on...

This paper offers a meta-regression analysis of the literature on the drivers of financial development. Our results based on 1900 estimates suggest that institutional quality is positively correlated to both private sector credit and stock market capitalization (both as share of GDP). Domestic...

Using discontinuities within the Swedish SAT system, we show that additional admission opportunities causally affect college choices. Students with high-educated parents change timing, colleges, and fields in ways that appear consistent with basic economic theory. In contrast, very talented...

Using discontinuities within the Swedish SAT system, we show that additional admission opportunities causally affect college choices. Students with high-educated parents change timing, colleges, and fields in ways that appear rational and informed. In contrast, very talented students with...

There is a momentous debate on the role played by financial technology (fintech) innovation in the fragility of the banking sector. Considering the importance of financial solidness, contradictory theoretical predictions and empirical evidence, the in-depth re-investigation of this relation is...

Analyzing unique data on loan applications by individuals who are majority owners of small firms, we detail how a bank's credit decisions affect their future income. We use the bank's cutoff rule, which is based on the applicants' credit scores, as the discontinuous locus providing exogenous...

Using discontinuities within the Swedish SAT system, we show that additional admission opportunities causally affect college choices. Students with high-educated parents change timing, colleges, and fields in ways that appear consistent with basic economic theory. In contrast, very talented...

The unsuccessful attempt to add a citizenship question to the Census has drawn attention to citizenship questions on other surveys. Simultaneously, researchers have noted a recent increase in Current Population Survey non-response. We combine these topics, studying the effect of the CPS...

This paper examines which measures of financial conditions are informative about the tail risks to output growth in the euro area. The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) is more informative than indicators focusing on narrower segments of financial markets or their simple aggregation...

Direct public support for business R&D is a well-established remedy to market failures, yet empirical evidence on its effectiveness yields conflicting results. The paper investigates the impact of the first European public R&D grant program targeting small and medium enterprises (i.e. the SME...

We examine how measures of financial imbalances affect macroeconomic tail risks over the medium-term in Norway and in other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk in the financial system and different quantile regression models to...

In an important class of econometric problems, researchers select a target parameter by maximizing the Euclidean norm of a data-dependent vector. Examples that can be cast into this frame include threshold regression models with estimated thresholds and structural break models with estimated...