In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism “Imperial Circle” as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the...

The global dollar system, though repeatedly reported to be on its last legs—most recently in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, but most famously in the Nixon devaluation of 1971—has repeatedly instead consolidated and gone on to further geographical expansion (McCauley 2021). The key...

China watchers have decried the emergence of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (“CIPS”) as a turning point in the move to dethrone the U.S. dollar. This Article situates CIPS, which clears and settles Chinese renminbi transactions, with other financial market infrastructures, drawing...

Written for a PIIE conference on the 50th anniversary of floating exchange rates, this paper deals with possible alternatives to a unipolar dollar-based system. It considers (1) measures of international currency use; (2) potential challengers to the dollar; (3) network externalities; and (4) the...

The Currency Board in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) uses the euro as a reserve currency in the conditions of a negative nominal interest rate on deposits with the ECB. In this paper, we investigated the impact of negative interest rates on deposits and negative yields on bonds denominated in euro...

A B S T R A C TThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) created the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with 16-currencies in 1969 as a reserve asset and a unit of account. In 1980, the IMF modified the composition of and weights to calculate the exchange rate on 5-currency basket. This paper mainly...

This paper presents a formal proof of the notion by which a country devoid of tradable assets and without access to foreign borrowing and lending must systematically pay for its imports in foreign currency through its exports alone, provided a demand for them to begin with. It likewise sets...

In this paper, I discuss the implications for emerging countries of the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in advanced jurisdictions, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro Zone. The analysis identifies benefits as well as costs. Among the former, one of the...

As China's position in the global economy has gradually improved, the importance of debates on the role of the renminbi in the international monetary system has significantly increased. This paper uses bibliometric methods-Bibliometrix R-package and its web-based graphical interface...

We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small...

It is difficult for private agents to produce money that circulates at par with no questions asked. We study two cases of privately-produced money: pre-Civil War U.S. private banknotes and modern stablecoins. Private monies are introduced when there are no better alternatives, but they initially...

We estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate, the exchange rate between the tourism origin country vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar is an important driver of tourism flows, indicating a strong role of U.S. dollar pricing. The...

We build a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, low U.S. interest rates and exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary...

We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small...

We estimate a variety of exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate between the tourism origin and destination countries, the exchange rate vis-a-vis the US dollar is also an important driver of tourism flows and pricing. The...

Over 85% of all foreign exchange (FX) transactions involve the US dollar. I show that the US dollar dominates FX trading volume because of strategic avoidance of price impact. To demonstrate this, I leverage the fact that non-dollar currency pairs can be traded indirectly by using the US dollar...

Despite the fact that China and the United States represent the G2 in terms of economic size, the RMB’s international significance in the existing international financial system is limited. China has made significant progress in encouraging RMB internationalization. It has the ability to...

While China has risen to become a global superpower with a growing impact on the world economy, its currency, the Renminbi (RMB), has a limited role in the existing international financial system. China has made significant progress and will continue to push for the internationalization of the...

The US derives enormous economic benefits from issuing the dominant global currency. This exorbitant privilege has been put at risk by the combination of the 2022 sanctions against Russia and new technological developments, specifically Central Bank Digital Currencies. CBDCs promise faster,...

I survey the role of geopolitics and sanctions risk in shaping the U.S. dollar's status as the primary currency used for international reserves. Without changes in the economic incentives for holding FX reserves in U.S. dollar assets, an increased threat of sanctions is unlikely to drastically...

In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism "Imperial Circle" as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core...

A major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open-economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks. However, there is little empirical evidence on the...

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of “safe haven” currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using...

This study examines the international repercussions of national sterilization policies under fixed exchange rates and managed flexibility. The effects of sterilization on the country pursuing the policy are well-known, but the adverse effects on other countries have not been adequately explored....

The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as a means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international...

This paper provides an historical perspective on reserve currency competition and on the prospects of the dollar as an international currency. It questions the conventional wisdom that competition for reserve-currency status is a winner-take-all game, showing that several currencies have often...

As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multi-country currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the dollar, the euro, or the yen. Although there appear...

The U.S. dollar holds a dominant place in the invoicing of international trade, along two complementary dimensions. First, most U.S. exports and imports invoiced in dollars. Second, trade flows that do not involve the United States are also substantially invoiced in dollars, an aspect that has...

Monetary and financial policies that lower the cost of credit for working capital in a currency outside of its country can provide the impetus for that currency to be used in international trade. This paper shows this in theory, by exploring the complemen-tarity in the currency used for...

Bonds are traditionally more stable and less volatile than equity as instruments to safekeep one’s money. But, bonds, by its conceptualization and construction, are illiquid assets. Such illiquidity provides a gap which can be exploited by manipulators and speculators in the bond market....

A large share of global trade being priced and invoiced primarily in US dollar rather than the exporter’s or the importer’s currency has important implications for the transmission of shocks. We introduce this “dominant currency pricing” (DCP) into ECB-Global, the ECB’s macroeconomic...