In light of recent pronouncements of tariff hikes in the United States (US) and the retaliatory responses of major economies such as China, Canada, and Mexico, this paper revisits the global value chains (GVC) experience of the Philippines amid the trade tensions between China and the US from...

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a wide-ranging set of "reciprocal tariffs" against many of its trading partners. The calculation of these tariffs have elicited a largely negative reaction in part due to the simple formula used to calculate them. In this note, I provide a model...

Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average...

In retaliating against Trump’s March 2025 imposition of import tariffs on EU aluminum and steel, the EU’s response should be twofold: one, at the EU level, to apply retaliatory tariffs and negotiations, and two, to support country-level efforts to minimize the impact of tariffs, including...

US President Donald Trump proposed implementing "reciprocal tariffs", under which the US would raise import tariffs to match those imposed by its trading partners, further undermining the multilateral rules-based system. This policy brief examines the status quo of tariff differentials between...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the international political economy of Korea and its effects due to geopolitical tension between China and the USA. Design/methodology/approach - Economic war between China and the USA has prolonged longer than expected. Aftermath of the COVID-19...

It has been suggested that an intensified trade war between China and the US could reduce CO2 emissions associated with exports. We develop an export-greenfield-endogenous merger model, showing that significantly increased tariffs can enable domestic firms to undertake entry-deterring...

Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this...

• Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the...

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared "Liberation Day", announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs through the lens of a trade model that features flexible tariff passthrough and endogenous trade...

We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China,...

Purpose - The study attempts to examine the impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnamese exports to the United States, which has consistently served as a key market for Vietnamese goods and services in recent decades. The heterogeneous effects of the trade war on different export sectors are...

The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, highfrequency bilateral trade data and gravity...

The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) of the European Union (EU) may become a significant global climate policy milestone. The EU trade partners most willing to accept CBAM could help it gain the critical mass necessary for survival and broader adoption. The cooperation of the world's...

We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we first show that US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in...

In developing economies, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role by providing resources that facilitate participation in international trade and support economic development. Focusing on Viet Nam as a case study, this research aims to quantify the distributional effects of the...

This paper leverages generative AI to build a network structure over 5,000 product nodes, where directed edges represent input-output relationships in production. We layout a two-step 'build-prune' approach using an ensemble of prompt-tuned generative AI classifications. The 'build' step...