The impressive growth of many African economies during the past decade was highly dependent on booming commodity markets and strong capital inflows, often related to commodities. With commodity prices falling and market expectations pointing to little reversal in the foreseeable future,...

The increase of the use of atomic power in some emerging economies, in particular South Korea and China, has revitalized a discussion regarding the availability of uranium resources. Despite the fact that global uranium resources are more than sufficient to supply reactor-related demand for the...

Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset...

We study the role of distance and time in statistically explaining price dispersion across 32 Swedish towns for 19 commodities from 1732 to 1914. The resulting large number of relative prices (502,689) allows precise estimation of distance and time effects, and their interaction. We find an...

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

We study the role of distance and time in statistically explaining price dispersion across 32 Swedish towns for 19 commodities from 1732 to 1914. The resulting large number of relative prices (502,689) allows precise estimation of distance and time effects, and their interaction. We find an...

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs' business cycle model where...

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and...

Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

In der letzten Dekade kam es bei Rohstoffen zu heftigen Preisschwankungen. Gleichzeitig nahm der Anteil von Finanzinvestoren an Rohstoffterminbörsen erheblich zu. Im Zuge ist eine Diskussion entbrannt, ob Finanzspekulation Rohstoffpreise von ihren fundamentalen Bestimmungsgrößen entfernt....

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Stylized Facts -- A. Identifying U.S. Dollar Appreciating and Depreciating Cycles: Markov Switching -- B. Stylized Facts -- C. Event Analysis -- III. Theoretical Framework: a Sketch -- A. Supply Side -- B. Domestic Demand -- C. Market Clearing...

Introduction -- The historical framework -- The geography of commodity production and trade -- Comparative advantage and the trade policy distortions -- The fossil fuels -- Price formation and price trends in commodities -- Commodity booms -- The commodity exchanges, commodity investments and...

Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...