We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that...

Amidst the escalating geopolitical fragmentation of the global financial system, divergent stablecoin architectures are emerging. This study employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and introduces a formalized 'Geopolitical Stablecoin' (GPSC) model to conduct a systematic comparison of...

A major concern about the imposition of international sanctions is that they may permanently deteriorate the quality of institutions in target countries, potentially causing an increase in corruption. While case studies suggest that this is frequently the case, systematic evidence is so far...

A major concern about the imposition of international sanctions is that they may permanently deteriorate the quality of institutions in target countries, potentially causing an increase in corruption. While case studies suggest that this is frequently the case, systematic evidence is so far...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rulesbased economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

Can government agencies in sanctioning countries deter their companies from violating laws that limit business transactions with sanctioned countries? To understand this issue, we study the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which is the primary enforcer of sanctions in the United States....

Over the past two decades, Iran has been the target of various international economic sanctions, notably the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign, aimed at compelling regime change by imposing costs and stirring public discontent. This study examines patterns consistent with a...

We examine how Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine shaped firm-level stock market performance in the EU and the US. To measure sanction exposure, we link firms to the specific products targeted by US and EU sanctions at the HS6 level, producing a detailed,...

Geopolitical risk is a major concern for the euro area, yet widely used measures largely reflect a US perspective. We introduce a geopolitical risk indicator tailored to the euro area using local European news sources. Shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary...

Social sanctions sustain social order by reinforcing widely accepted principles. Political polarization may weaken this mechanism by fragmenting these principles, yet causal effects are hard to identify: observational data cannot separate the effect of polarized preferences from exposure to...

We examine the extent to which financial sanctions imposed by Germany through its European Union and United Nations commitments cause collateral damage on Germany's trade in goods and services. Financial sanctions reduce Germany's inflows and outflows of financial assets, as well as imports and...

What actions should we expect countries to take when engaged in economic warfare? This paper first shows that the goal of winning a war implies a very simple and intuitive objective of economic warfare: maximize one's own less the opponent's (weight-adjusted) payoff. This objective function is...

The EU has agreed to sanction Russia by prohibiting bilateral trade, including food imports. This study aims to determine the impact of EU sanctions on EU19 food imports from Russia. The two-stage least squares (TSLS) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to analyze EU19 food import data...

We examine the extent to which financial sanctions imposed by Germany through its European Union and United Nations commitments cause collateral damage on Germany's trade in goods and services. Financial sanctions reduce Germany's inflows and outflows of financial assets, as well as imports and...

Russia's war of aggression, which has brought wide destruction and loss to Ukraine, has also transformed the Russian economy in significant ways. The Russian government's role in the economy has grown, with an ever-increasing amount of economic resources allocated to the war effort. The...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

This Policy Brief examines the economic well-being of Russian households in the wake of warrelated sanctions, leveraging ten years of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Building on macroeconomic indicators suggesting resilience, we analyze subjective wellbeing,...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through...

This study investigates the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on internal instability and conflict using a global sample. Our analysis, which includes cross-country and panel data from over 120 countries between 1996 and 2022, shows that economic sanctions increase the risk of internal conflict...

We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect...

To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...

We introduce political salience into a canonical model of attacks against political regimes, as scaling agents’ expressive payoffs from taking sides. Equilibrium balances heterogeneous expressive concerns with material bandwagoning incentives. We examine comparative statics in salience that...

In line with Sustainable Development Goal 15, which focuses on life on land, protecting our planet for future generations becomes an imperative challenge. To address this, the present study examines the comparative efficiency of climate finance and environmental taxes in mitigating environmental...

This case analysis uses a crime script to understand the circumvention of sanctions on the supply of goods from the Netherlands to Russia. By analysing three court cases, news articles and five interviews with law enforcement officers, a crime script is created. Based on this crime script,...

Economic sanctions have emerged as critical instruments of geopolitical strategy, with significant ramifications for global energy markets, innovation trajectories, and the transition to sustainable energy systems. This study offers a qualitative synthesis of literature and case studies spanning...