Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

This note provides extensive evidence on the persistence properties of real GDP in 17 European countries and in the US over the period 1960-2023 using a fractional integration framework. The analysis suggests that in all cases shocks have permanent effects on the level of real GDP. This is...

This paper analyzes how interaction effects can be consistently estimated under economically plausible assumptions in linear panel models with a fixed Tdimension. We advocate for a correlated interaction term estimator (CITE) and show that it is consistent under conditions that are not...

Purpose - The authors' conclusions are based on mathematical derivations that are supported by computer simulations and three worked examples in applications of economics and finance. Finally, the authors provide a link to a computer program so that researchers can perform the analyses easily....

When estimating the effects of treatments defined by complex formulas, researchers often use simple functions of exogenous shocks as instruments. A leading example is "simulated instruments" for public policy eligibility, which capture variation in state-level policy generosity. We show how more...

We develop a new approach to estimating flexible demand models with exogenous supply-side shocks. Our approach avoids conventional assumptions of exogenous product characteristics, putting no restrictions on product entry, despite using instrumental variables that incorporate characteristic...

Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the...

This study examines the out-of-sample predictability of expected skewness of oil price returns, which serves as a metric for global future risks, as we show statistically through the association with crises of different nature, for stock returns of 10 (8 advanced plus two emerging) countries...

In this paper we study a class of weighted estimands, which we define as parameters that can be expressed as weighted averages of the underlying heterogeneous treatment effects. The popular ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares (2SLS), and two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimands...

Using a customized survey and an information-provision experiment, we establish that loan officers' individual subjective expectations about inflation, GDP growth, and policy rates vary substantially within and across bank types and have a sizable causal effect on credit supply decisions....

This study rigorously examines the causality between banking development, economic growth, and income inequality using annual panel data for 13 Central Eastern European transition economies from 2000 to 2020. The Granger non-causality test of heterogeneous panels based on the Toda and Yamamoto...

The changing geopolitical situation in the European region has actualized the issues of further EU enlargement. As a result, the relevance of studying many aspects of the functioning economic systems of candidate countries has increased. In this context, the purpose of this article is to...

The 1924 Immigration Act excluded immigrants from economically developing countries to the point of their near total exclusion. Forty years later, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act eliminated most discriminatory county-of-origin barriers. America's doors opened and immigration from...

This study analyses the relationship between unemployment and economic growth at the international level, addressing the nature and decomposition of the Okun coefficient. Using World Bank data from 173 countries between 1991 and 2019, econometric techniques including decompositions and spatial...

Several process parameters affect product reliability. Traditional reliability improvement methods primarily focus on maximizing product lifetime, often overlooking the variation in product lifetime. Manufacturers, however, aim to produce products with minimal variations in their performance....

Fueling debates about the "quality" of immigrants from economically developing countries, empirical studies based on a well-respected methodology conclude that post-1965 immigrant men have low initial earnings and sluggish earnings growth. This methodology is based on flawed assumptions (Duleep,...

This paper examines how gender-specific application behaviour, firms' hiring practices, and flexibility demands relate to the gender earnings gap, using linked data from the German Job Vacancy Survey and administrative records. Women are less likely than men to apply to high-wage firms with high...

This study examines the relationship between sovereign spreads and banks in terms of risk transmission, using the seven largest Italian banks as a sample over the period from 2003 to 2023. Our objective is to quantify and compare volatility spillovers, and to investigate whether bank-specific...

Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely...