The low-frequency movements of many economic variables play a prominent role in policy analysis and decision-making. We develop a robust estimation approach for these slow-moving trend processes, which is guided by a judicious choice of priors and is characterized by sparsity. We present some...

We propose a statistical identification procedure for structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models that present a nonlinear dependence (at least) at the contemporaneous level. By applying and adapting results from the literature on causal discovery with continuous additive noise models to...

We study identification in a binary choice panel data model with a single predetermined binary covariate (i.e., a covariate sequentially exogenous conditional on lagged outcomes and covariates). The choice model is indexed by a scalar parameter θ, whereas the distribution of unit-specific...

We consider fully modified least squares estimation for systems of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e., systems of regressions that include deterministic variables, integrated processes and their powers as regressors. The errors are allowed to be correlated across equations, over time...

This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection when the marginal effects of signals on the target variable as well as the correlation of the covariates in the active set are allowed to vary over time, without committing to any particular model of parameter instabilities. It poses...

In this paper, we describe a computational implementation of the Synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID) estimator of Arkhangelsky et al. (2021) for Stata. Synthetic difference-in-differences can be used in a wide class of circumstances where treatment effects on some particular policy or...

Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied...

In this paper we develop a novel semi-nonparametric panel copula model with external covariates for the study of wage rank dynamics. We focus on nonlinear dependence between the current and lagged worker's ranks in the wage residuals distribution, conditionally on individual characteristics. We...

We provide a systematic approach in obtaining an estimator asymptotically more efficient than the popular fixed effects Poisson (FEP) estimator for panel data models with multiplicative heterogeneity in the conditional mean. In particular, we derive the optimal instrumental variables under...

I consider linear panel data models with unobserved factor structures when the number of time periods is small relative to the number of cross-sectional units. I examine two popular methods of estimation: the first eliminates the factors with a parameterized quasi-long-differencing (QLD)...

Over the past two decades, the Black Sea region has exhibited significantly growing wheat production and exports. In 2017/18, Russia ultimately became the world’s largest wheat exporter, a position that was held by the USA for decades. Mostly serving destination markets in the Middle East and...

Many interesting and important economic questions relate to the e§ects of binary treatments such as starting a college degree or participating in a job training program. The causal e§ects of these treatments are likely to be heterogeneous and recent research has emphasized the estimation of...

This paper considers a class of fixed-T nonlinear panel models with timevarying link function, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. We establish sufficient conditions for the identification of the regression coefficients, the time-varying link function, the distribution of counterfactual...

This paper proposes a minimum distance (MD) estimator to estimate panel regression models with measurement error. The model considered is more general than examined in the literature in that (i) measurement error can be non-classical in the sense that they are allowed to be correlated with the...

We consider an observation-driven location model where the unobserved location variable is modeled as a random walk process and where the error variable is from a mixture of normal distributions. The mixed normal distribution can approximate many continuous error distributions accurately. We...

Income is an important economic indicator to measure living standards and individual well-being. In Germany, there exist different data sources that yield ambiguous evidence when analysing the income distribution. The Tax Statistics (TS) - an income register recording the total population of...

The exact distribution of a quadratic form in n standard normal variables, Q; say, (or, equivalently, a linear combination of independent chi-squared variates) is, except in special cases, quite complicated. This has led to many proposals for approximating the distribution by a more tractable...

We develop two new methods for selecting the penalty parameter for the e1-penalized high-dimensional M-estimator, which we refer to as the analytic and bootstrap-after-cross-validation methods. For both methods, we derive nonasymptotic error bounds for the corresponding e1-penalized M-estimator...

This paper presents a method for estimating the average treatment effects (ATE) of an exponential endogenous switching model where the coefficients of covariates in the structural equation are random and correlated with the binary treatment variable. The estimating equations are derived under...

In this paper, we introduce a flexible and widely applicable nonparametric entropy-based testing procedure that can be used to assess the validity of simple hypotheses about a specific parametric population distribution. The testing methodology relies on the characteristic function of the...

In linear regression analysis, the estimator of the variance of the estimator of the regression coefficients should take into account the clustered nature of the data, if present, since using the standard textbook formula will in that case lead to a severe downward bias in the standard errors....