Search Results - subject_exact:"Seasonal variations"

Akesaka, Mika; Shigeoka, Hitoshi - 2026 - This version: December 2025

Seasonal allergies affect over 400 million people globally, yet the broader economic consequences of pollen exposure remain understudied. Evidence from Japan's ambulance records suggests that high-pollen days are associated with increases in accidents, including traffic accidents and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605957

Redesigning the classical automatic selection of X-11 seasonal filters

Webel, Karsten - 2026

The classical X-11 seasonal adjustment method for monthly and quarterly time series is equipped with routines for data-driven selections of both Henderson trendcycle filters and 3 × k seasonal moving averages, currently involving up to three candidate filters in either case. Although these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607327

The R package deseats for data-driven trend and seasonality estimation in time series

Schulz, Dominik - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626951

A semiparametric spatial FARIMA applied in the presence of spatial seasonality

Schulz, Dominik; Do, Thi Thu Huong; Feng, Yuanhua - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626962

Ancestral inequality and preferences for redistribution

Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca - 2026

Using a combination of individual-level, bioclimatic, ethnographic, and archaeological data, we investigate the ancient origins of cross-country variation in preferences for redistribution. Our hypothesis is that contemporary attitudes toward redistribution are shaped by ancestral inequality,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644032

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Ancestral inequality and preferences for redistribution

Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Ancestral inequality and preferences for redistribution

Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Hired in high season : seasonal labor demand and refugee labor market integration

Degenhardt, Felix - 2026

I examine whether early but temporary access to low-barrier hospitality employment affects refugees’ labor market integration. I exploit within-region, within-year variation by combining the quasiexogenous allocation of refugees to Austrian regions with seasonality in hospitality, where 25% of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015657883

Time series forecasting in SAP using a data-driven seasonal semiparametric ARMA model

Chen, Li; Feng, Yuanhua - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015662160

Seasonal variation in cash flows and the timing role of accruals

Kapons, Martin; Veenman, David - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651921

The everyday cost of paradise : seasonal grocery inflation as a tourism-led externality

Kuliš, Zvonimir; Mikulić, Josip; Srhoj, Stjepan - 2026

This study conceptualizes tourism-led grocery inflation as a cost-of-living externality affecting everyday goods. Using retailer-published price microdata for Croatia, it aggregates 1.3 billion daily observations into monthly datasets covering May-October 2025. Prices are already higher in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665251

Selecting seasonal filters in X–13–ARIMA via cross-validation

Ollech, Daniel - 2026

Official statistics routinely employs the X-13-ARIMA method to seasonally adjust economic time series. A key step is choosing the length of the seasonal moving av- erage. Traditionally, this choice relies on ad hoc criteria and expert judgement. We propose a cross-validation-based filter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665401

Why do retail prices fall during seasonal demand peaks?

Butters, R. Andrew; Sacks, Daniel W.; Seo, Boyoung - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372952

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Why Do Retail Prices Fall During Seasonal Demand Peaks?

Butters, R. Andrew - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Revisions in concurrent seasonal adjustments of daily and weekly economic time series

Webel, Karsten - 2025

The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has fostered in many countries the development of new weekly economic indices for the timely tracking of pandemic-related turmoils and other forms of rapid economic changes. Such indices often utilise information from daily and weekly economic time series that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373330

Surviving busy season : using the job demands-resources model to investigate coping mechanisms

Jefferson, Devon P.; Andiola, Lindsay M.; Hurley, Patrick J. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015376030

Estimating the short-term effects and seasonal dynamics of Malawi’s 2015/16 drought on household food insecurity and child malnutrition

Kenamu, Edwin; Colen, Liesbeth - 2025

In 2015, Southern Africa experienced a drought that affected approximately 30 million people across seven countries. Using a nationally representative household panel survey dataset and a remotely sensed measure of drought intensity during the 2015/16 farming season, we rigorously estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330867

Combine harvester outsourcing services and seasonal rural non-farm employment in Myanmar

Belton, Ben; Fang, Peixun; Reardon, Thomas Anthony - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332052

The crypto world trades at tea time : intraday evidence from centralized exchanges across the globe

Brauneis, Alexander; Mestel, Roland; Theissen, Erik - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015194587

Das Dilemma der Speicherverpflichtung im Gasmarkt : Ursachen und Optionen für ein optimiertes Marktdesign

Ockenfels, Axel; Bothe, David; Janssen, Matthias - 2025

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326720

Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models

Lisi, Francesco; Grigoletto, Matteo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464756

Exploring European hydrogen demand variations under tactical uncertainty with seasonal hydrogen storage

Hummelen, Sebastian Emil; Hordvei, Erlend; Petersen, … - 2025

Achieving a net-zero energy system in Europe by 2050 will likely require large-scale deployment of hydrogen and seasonal energy storage to manage variability in renewable supply and demand. This study addresses two key objectives: (1) to develop a modeling framework that integrates seasonal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467491

From weather to wallet : evidence on seasonal temperature shocks and global food prices

Falck, Elisabeth; Schulte, Patrick - 2025

In this paper, we provide evidence on the impact of global seasonal temperature shocks on global food commodity prices. Utilizing monthly data from 1961 to 2023, we find an economically and statistically highly significant, longer-lasting positive impact of summer temperature shocks on global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472631

Credit and welfare across the lean season

Ligon, Ethan; Silver, Jed - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015448102

New Zealand's recognised seasonal employer scheme : pathways and prospects

Bedford, Charlotte; Bedford, Richard - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015454616

Australia's seasonal worker program : working out ways to manage risk

Curtain, Richard - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015454620

Climate change and unemployment seasonality : evidence from US counties

Rujiwattanapong, W. Similan; Yoshida, Masahiro - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406539

Optimal time series forecasting through the GARMA model

Gadhi, Adel Hassan A.; Peiris, Shelton; Allen, David E.; … - 2025

This paper examines the use of machine learning methods in modeling and forecasting time series with long memory through GARMA. By employing rigorous model selection criteria through simulation study, we find that the hybrid GARMA-LSTM model outperforms traditional approaches in forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015408216

Simultaneous nowcasting of Netherlands' macroeconomic trends and seasonal patterns based on Fourier analysis

Pijpers, Frank P.; Harlaar, Lucas; Brakel, Jan A. van den; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015408522

Estimating the effects and seasonal dynamics of Malawi's 2015-16 drought and humanitarian transfers on household food insecurity and child malnutrition

Kenamu, Edwin; Colen, Liesbeth - 2025

In 2015, Southern Africa experienced a drought that affected approximately 30 million people across seven countries. Using a nationally representative household panel survey data set and a remotely sensed measure of drought intensity during the 2015-16 farming season, we rigorously estimate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015408542

Seasonal mortality and its impact on spatial inequality in life expectancy across Italy

Marinetti, Isabella; Jdanov, Dmitri A.; Jasilionis, Domantas - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015410498

Dynamics of subletting : evidence from Swedish university students

Herold, Theo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015413048

Modeling and forecasting time-series data with multiple seasonal periods using periodograms

Chudo, Solomon Buke; Terdik, Gyorgy - 2025

Applications of high-frequency data, including energy management, economics, and finance, frequently require time-series forecasting characterized by complex seasonality. Recognizing prevailing seasonal trends continues to be difficult, given that the majority of solutions depend on basic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437130

Forecasting of natural gas based on a novel discrete grey seasonal prediction model with a time power term

Zhang, Jun; Shen, Chaofeng; Qin, Yanping; Chen, Jingyi - 2025

To effectively manage natural gas dispatchability, the energy industry needs to precisely analyze the seasonal trends of natural gas production and consumption. However, most predictive models demand data pretreatment and are labor-intensive. To address this, a novel seasonal discrete grey...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015437371

Changes in birth seasonality in East and West Germany, 1946-2017

Conte Keivabu, Risto - 2025

Seasonal trends in fertility are found in several contexts and are affected by societal and environmental factors. This paper documents how birth seasonality in East and West Germany changed over time and, in particular, after 1989 and the onset of Reunification. We use birth counts by month...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611456

Structuring cash transfers : cash flow preferences, seasonality, and financial decisions in rural Kenya

Kansikas, Carolina; Mani, Anandi; Niehaus, Paul - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616341

AI-driven raw material demand forecasting : towards project management practices

Fouad, Abdelrahman Mohamed; Wefki, Hossam; Kouta, Hanan - 2025

Accurate forecasting of raw material demand is critical for effective decision-making in project management, particularly in the construction sector. Demand fluctuations in this industry can severely disrupt workflows and cause project delays. Reliable demand predictions help maintain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015554872

Shrinkage estimators for periodic autoregressions

Paap, Richard; Franses, Philip Hans - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556001

Logistics planning strategies for seasonal traffic management

Dabo, Al-Amin Abba; Mor, Rahul; Albatal, Maha Mohammed; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015558246

The market price of jump risk for delivery periods : pricing of electricity swaps with geometric averaging

Kemper, Annika; Schmeck, Maren Diane - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015526414

Seasonality and spikes in the natural gas market

Rotondi, Francesco - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606682

On the estimation of climate normals and anomalies

Proietti, Tommaso; Giovannelli, Alessandro - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475276

From noise to turning points : a new framework for seasonal adjustment in Armenia

Minasyan, Gevorg; Schipper, Stefan; Khachatryan, Lusya; … - 2025

This paper evaluates the transition from X12-ARIMA to X13-ARIMA-SEATS for the seasonal adjustment of Armenia's quarterly national accounts (QNA). We analyze the methodological advancements and their impact on key economic indicators, focusing on the precision and reliability of seasonally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015416238

Das Dilemma der Speicherverpflichtung im Gasmarkt : optimiertes Marktdesign erforderlich

Ockenfels, Axel; Bothe, David; Janssen, Matthias - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015403344

Analysis of seasonal patterns in the performance of fuel markets in the visegrad group

Krawiec, Monika; Górska, Anna - 2024

The objective of the paper is to examine seasonal patterns in the performance of fuel markets in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries (i.e., the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). Unlike numerous papers that investigate global oil markets, this study focuses on regional retail fuel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015063568

Enhancing employment conditions for migrant seasonal workers : assessing consumer preferences for "fair-labour" apples

Thiermann, Insa; Götze, Henrike; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe - 2024

Criticisms over labour practices in agricultural production often target the living and working conditions of migrant seasonal workers. This article assesses consumer preferences for apples produced under social conditions exceeding current legal standards. The analysis is based on a discrete...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015053893

Do online attention and sentiment affect cryptocurrencies' correlations?

Aslanidis, Nektarios; Bariviera, Aurelio Fernández; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015062450

Trading activity in the corporate bond market : a sad tale of macro-announcements and behavioral seasonality?

Forest, James J.; Branch, Ben Shirley; Berry, Brian T. - 2024

This study investigates the determinants of trading activity in the U.S. corporate bond market, focusing on the effects of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) and macroeconomic announcements. Employing the General-to-Specific (Gets) Autometrics methodology, we identify distinct behavioral...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636541

On the source of seasonality in price changes : the role of seasonality in menu costs

Munakata, Ko; Shinohara, Takeshi; Shiratsuka, Shigenori; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015073001

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On the source of seasonality in price changes : the role of seasonality in menu costs

Munakata, Ko; Shinohara, Takeshi; Shiratsuka, Shigenori; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

On the source of seasonality in price changes : the role of seasonality in menu costs

Munakata, Ko; Shinohara, Takeshi; Shiratsuka, Shigenori; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Patterns of temporary rural migration : a study in northern Bangladesh

Rana, Md. Sohel; Qaim, Matin - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015073569

Seasonality patterns in LNG shipping spot and time charter freight rates

Polemis, Dionysios; Bentsos, Christos - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015077321

Analyzing and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in sediments along Shatt Al-Arab Estuary, Iraq

Al-Zabad, Rafid A.; Al-Khafaji, Ayad H.; Al-Saad, Hamid T. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015078709

Forecasting HICP package holidays with forward-looking booking data

Schnorrenberger, Richard; Schwind, Patrick; Wieland, … - 2024

Forecasting consumer prices for package holidays, which represent a major driver of the inflation rate in Germany, poses some practical challenges. With a substantial share in the underlying consumer basket, prices for package holidays exhibit strong seasonality, notable volatility, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015079886