This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global risk shocks (GRS) in a small open economy and their implications for the identification of monetary policy shocks. I construct a novel proxy for GRS based on unexpected daily innovations in the VIX and employ it as an external instrument in...

This paper estimates Morocco's natural interest rate (NIR) using two approaches: a standard HLW-type framework and an augmented specification that incorporates external factors, namely imported inflation, and movements in the real effective exchange rate. The results point to a downward trend in...

To estimate the impact of disagreement about expected inflation on the transmission of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, this article makes three novel contributions to the literature. First, we reconstruct a series of inflation expectations and calculate their disagreement from qualitative...

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption through wealth effects in a small open economy. As a natural experiment, we exploit the 2015 Swiss franc shock, triggered by the Swiss National Bank's unexpected removal of the euro exchange rate floor. Using...

In this paper, we develop a small open economy model of secular stagnation that allows for both unemployment and underemployment. While unemployment results from the standard search and matching friction, underemployment in the form of an involuntary shortfall of working hours occurs under...

We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers-investment and employment-and estimate the...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it...

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic...

A new mathematical structural model of the exchange rate and a new nonlinear multifactorial dependence of the exchange rate dynamics on a wide system of fundamental economic factors are the main results of the work. The model includes a wide system of economic factors based on the balance of...

This study analyzes the drivers of inflation in South Korea using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the characteristics of Korea as a small open economy. Employing quarterly data from 1999Q2 to 2023Q2, Bayesian estimation is used to estimate Korea-specific...

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on non-performing loans (NPLs), using a unique bank-by-bank dataset on lending to FX hedged and FX unhedged borrowers. Employing fixed effects and panel quantile regression, we analyze how changes in exchange rate affect the NPL...

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in small open economies with domestic and cross-border production networks and nominal rigidities. The monetary policy that closes the domestic output gap is nearly optimal and is implemented by stabilizing the aggregate inflation index that...

The decline in international trade following the financial crisis suggests a shift in globalisation and a transformation of the international economic order. Protectionist trade policies have gained prominence as certain major economies increasingly implement tariffs to safeguard domestic...

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the central bank of Mexico - a prototypical emerging market economy (EME) - adjusted its reaction coefficients according to an estimated Taylor-type rule in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the posterior surge in inflation. To do so, we estimate a...

We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical...

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in small open economies with domestic and cross-border production networks and nominal rigidities. The monetary policy that closes the domestic output gap is nearly optimal and is implemented by stabilizing the aggregate inflation index that...

This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it...

We compare the macroeconomic and housing-market effects of (1) reducing mortgage subsidies, (2) tightening borrower-based tools (debt-service-to-income [DSTI]/loan-to-value [LTV]) and (3) standard monetary and external shocks.We develop a small open-economy (SOE) New Keynesian dynamic stochastic...

The turbulent first eleven months of Donald Trump's second presidency has been characterized by policy actions and statements that create large uncertainties and sideline multilateral cooperation. The Trump administration has fueled substantial trade policy uncertainty globally, as well as...