Search Results - subject_exact:"Sovereign insolvency"

Mimir, Yasin; Önder, Yasin Kürşat; Villegas, Jose - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608775

Sovereign debt dynamics at the brink of default and the special role of supranational lenders

Zwart, Sanne - 2026

Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610720

Public financing under balanced budget rules

Deng, Minjie; Liu, Chang - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606170

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Public financing under balanced budget rules

Deng, Minjie; Liu, Chang - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Foreign bonds, territorial change and repudiation : the Silesian Bonds saga

Bindseil, Ulrich; Gulati, Mitu - 2026

Once a famous tale of conquest, law and foreign bond markets, the saga of the Silesian Bonds of 1734-37 is missing from the literature on sovereign debt. The Silesian Bonds were among the earliest foreign currency sovereign bonds issued. They go into the market 84 years prior to the 1818...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620325

Sovereign risk with endogenous debt limits

Arce, Fernando; Villa, Alessandro T. - 2026

Why do countries set sovereign debt ceilings if they keep raising them? This paper shows that debt ceilings can serve as intermediate commitment devices that reduce expected dilution, thereby lowering spreads-and their volatility-even without reducing total borrowing. We propose a new sovereign...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643954

Original sin, sovereign default, and the limits of the fiscal theory of the price level

Ocampo, Emilio - 2026

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) argues that inflation adjusts to ensure that the real value of government liabilities equals the expected present value of future primary surpluses. This mechanism is plausible in economies whose public debt is predominantly denominated in domestic...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656459

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573480

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Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default

D'Erasmo, Pablo N.; Livshits, Igor; Schoors, Koen - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Optimal default in a small open economy : Senegal's hidden debt crisis

Coulibaly, Louphou; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye - 2026

Hidden public liabilities can reprice sovereign risk abruptly upon revelation. We study optimal default following such a revelation in a quantitative sovereign default model and apply the framework to Senegal's 2024 debt audit, which revised government debt upward by 50 percentage points of GDP....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651315

The Generalized Euler Equation and the bankruptcy-sovereign default problem

Mateos-Planas, Xavier; McCrary, Sean; Ríos-Rull, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653809

Clientelism, institutions and sovereign default

Azzimonti, Marina; Mitra, Nirvana - 2026 - This version: March 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636809

Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk

Esquivel, Carlos; Samano, Agustin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574597

The evolving nexus: sovereigns, banks and NBFIs$Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy and Maximilian Jager

Avdjiev, Stefan; Hardy, Bryan; Jager, Maximilian - 2026 - This version: July 14, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673746

Wars, threats, and the sovereign bond market

Federle, Jonathan-Julian; Greenwood, Robin; Meyer, Josefin - 2026

We study how wars and military threats affect financial markets. Leveraging more than 300,000 monthly price observations since 1822, we create an external currency bond index for more than 90 countries - the EXBI. Using the EXBI, we document large effects of wars on returns and borrowing costs....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670016

Quantitative easing and government debt sustainability

Li, Wenhao; Merkel, Sebastian - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676113

Sovereign defaults and trade : external vs. domestic creditors

Essers, Dennis; Marchesi, Silvia; Okatan, Nejat G. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064070

A note on allowing state bankruptcy

Deng, Minjie - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617286

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A note on allowing state bankruptcy

Deng, Minjie - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign default and public debt : what role for fiscal rules?

Apeti, Ablam Estel; Obeng, Samuel; Tagem, Abrams; Wer, … - 2025

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debtto-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015486045

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Sovereign default and public debt : what role for fiscal rules?

Apeti, Ablam Estel; Obeng, Samuel Kwabena; Tagem, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

A further examination of sovereign domestic and external debt defaults

Ghulam, Yaseen - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371717

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574363

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Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025 - This draft: March 2025

Edition: This draft: March 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025 - This draft: April 2025

Edition: This draft: April 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default : more similar than you think

Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2024 - This draft: March 2024

Edition: This draft: March 2024

Book / Working Paper

Bilateral investment treaties and sovereign default risk : evidence for emerging markets

Eichler, Stefanie; Nauerth, Jannik A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375531

How China collateralizes

Gelpern, Anna; Haddad, Omar; Horn, Sebastian; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015463811

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How China collateralizes

Gelpern, Anna; Haddad, Omar; Horn, Sebastian; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

How China collateralizes

Gelpern, Anna; Haddad, Omar; Horn, Sebastian; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Optimal climate policy, distortionary taxation, and public debt

Aloui, Rym; Bouakez, Hafedh - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466887

Do countries default in bad times? : the role of alternative detrending techniques

Panizza, Ugo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015449054

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Do countries default in bad times? : the role of alternative detrending techniques

Panizza, Ugo - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Do countries default in bad times? : the role of alternative detrending techniques

Panizza, Ugo - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? : the effects of political risk on debt sustainability

Ajovalasit, Samantha; Consiglio, Andrea; Pagliardi, Giovanni - 2025

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406629

The 2025 U.S. debt limit through the lens of financial markets

Benzoni, Luca; Wernick, Marisa - 2025 - This draft: May 27, 2025

We examine the 2025 U.S. debt limit episode through the lens of financial markets. First, we document an increase in trading activity in the U.S. sovereign CDS market, and we infer a probability of default from CDS premiums. We find that default risk reached 1% by the November 6 Presidential...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015407927

Tax revolts and sovereign defaults

Arce, Fernando; Morgan, Jan; Werquin, Nicolas - 2025

Political crises often coincide with fiscal crises, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina. In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015413438

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Tax revolts and sovereign defaults

Arce, Fernando; Morgan, Jan; Werquin, Nicolas - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The sovereign bond issuance and tax competition for portfolio investment : a political economy approach

Terai, Kimiko - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015432748

Sovereign default, foreign exchange-in-advance constraints, and endogenous default costs

Johri, Alok - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438329

Debt ceiling rules under intermediate commitment

Arce, Fernando; Villa, Alessandro T. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015446115

Macroeconomic implications of catastrophe bond adoption

Panit Wattanakoon; Wanissa Suanin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015555369

Official sovereign debt

Arellano, Cristina; Barreto, Leonardo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556699

Default and interest rate shocks : renegotiation matters

Almeida, Victor; Esquivel, Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy Jerome; … - 2024

We develop a sovereign default model with debt renegotiation in which interest-rate shocks affect default incentives through two mechanisms. The first is the standard mechanism through which higher rates tighten the budget constraint. The second rests on how risk-free rates affect lenders'...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014451360

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Default and interest rate shocks : renegotiation matters

Almeida, Victor; Esquivel, Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy Jerome; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Default and interest rate shocks : renegotiation matters

Almeida, Victor; Esquivel, Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy Jerome; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The role of dispersed information in maintaining low interest rates

Bassetto, Marco; Galli, Carlo; Hall, Jason - 2025

When public debt is issued in domestic currency, any sudden confidence crisis in the repayment ability of the government need not trigger a default, since it can be accommodated by temporary monetary financing, converting default risk into inflation risk. When the default risk premium is...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655894

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The role of dispersed information in maintaining low interest rates

Bassetto, Marco; Galli, Carlo; Hall, Jason - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Default and recovery statistics : sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024

2025

The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) is a joint initiative between the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation; it was established in 2009 to pool credit risk data. This database is a unique example of a tangible common good and is designed to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015520693

Fiscal rules and discretion with risk of default

Felli, Chiara; Piguillem, Facundo; Shi, Liyan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628175

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Fiscal rules and discretion with risk of default

Felli, Chiara; Piguillem, Facundo; Shi, Liyan - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign defaults and debt sustainability : a joint analysis

Diarra, Ibrahima; Guillard, Michel; Kempf, Hubert - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655751

Examination and predictions of risk tolerance levels and thresholds in sovereigns' external debt defaults

Ghulam, Yaseen - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653440

Mismanagement amid resource abundance : sovereign risk, private sector credit rationing, and economic stagnation in Colombia, 1861-98

Primmer, Andrew - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475380

Would an earlier inception of OMT by the ECB have prevented the 2012 Greek default?

Mäder, Nicolas - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015482455

Seniority and sovereign default : the role of official multilateral lenders

Wicht, Adrien - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574327

Default and development

Li, Lei; Mihalache, Gabriel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574349

Commitment in the canonical sovereign default model

Mateos-Planas, Xavier; McCrary, Sean; Ríos-Rull, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574519

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Commitment in the canonical sovereign default model

Mateos-Planas, Xavier; McCrary, Sean; Ríos-Rull, … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

China's lending to developing countries : from boom to bust

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015559754

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China's lending to developing countries : from boom to bust

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The dynamics of informality and fiscal policy under sovereign risk

Pappadà, Francesco; Zylberberg, Yanos - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015532517

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The dynamics of informality and fiscal policy under sovereign risk

Pappadà, Francesco; Zylberberg, Yanos - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign default intensity and noise bargaining

Gordon, Grey; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015559262

Sovereign risk and Dutch disease

Esquivel, Carlos - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560614

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Sovereign risk and Dutch disease

Esquivel, Carlos - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness

Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Önder, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560932

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Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness

Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Önder, … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

The Greek tragedy : narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis

Beckert, Jens; Arndt, H. Lukas R. - 2024

Between 2009 and 2015 Greece underwent a profound sovereign debt crisis that led to a serious political crisis in Europe and the restructuring of Greek debt. We argue that the prevalence of negative narratives about the future contributed to the changes in spreads of Greek bonds during the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631643

Economic and political determinants of sovereign default and IMF credit use : a robustness assessment post 2010

Maddah, Lina; Sherry, Hassan; Zeaiter, Hussein - 2024

According to the IMF, the current public debt makes up nearly 40 percent of the global debt, marking the highest share since the mid-1960s. Despite the vast research on alarming levels of sovereign default, the literature remains inconclusive. This paper investigates macroeconomic, financial,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636157

Exiting from quantitative easing in an era of large government debt : inflation or default?

Niwa, Hidekazu - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015066374