Search Results - subject_exact:"Spezifikationsfehler"

Model averaging and grid maps for modeling heavy-tailed insurance data

Mothibe, Lira B.; Shongwe, Sandile C. - 2026

This work presents a practical approach to improve risk quantification for heavy-tailed insurance claims through model averaging and grid map visualization, addressing the drawbacks of traditional single "best" model selection commonly used in actuarial and model-fitting literature. This is a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611274

Hybrid modelling using simulation and machine learning in healthcare

Ahmadi, Ali; Fakhimi, Masoud; Magnusson, Carin - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015552381

Modelling mobility trends : update including 2024 ODiN data

Boonstra, Harm Jan; Brakel, Jan A. van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614294

Bayesian Panel Variable Selection under model uncertainty for high-dimensional data

Pathairat Pastpipatkul; Htwe Ko - 2026

Selecting the relevant covariates in high-dimensional panel data remains a central challenge in applied econometrics. Conventional fixed effects and random effects models are not designed for systematic variable selection under model uncertainty. In addition, many existing models such as LASSO...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640470

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2026

This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606830

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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison

Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025

Book / Working Paper

A Bayesian learning approach for predictive resilience in engineer-to-order supply chains

Alaoua, Aicha; Karim, Mohammed - 2026

Accurate supplier lead time prediction is critical for maintaining resilience in Engineer-to-Order (EtO) supply chains, characterized by high customization and uncertainty. This study develops a simulation-based predictive framework combining log-normal sensitivity analysis, Internet of Things...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640886

Forecasting out-of-time credit scoring model risk

Yoshida Jr., Valter T.; Schiozer, Rafael Felipe; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625453

An accuracy-level method for robust evaluation in predictive analytics

Agustini, Mety; Fithriasari, Kartika; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi - 2026

Evaluation metrics are essential in selecting the most appropriate predictive model. Conventional metrics such as R-squared, root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) rely on arithmetic averages, making them sensitive to outliers, undefined values, and scale...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652207

Testing IV validity and LATE interpretation using flexible covariate specifications

Krumme, Anna; Westphal, Matthias - 2026

Building on the testable implications for IV validity underlying local average treatment effect (LATE) estimation, we (i) propose a simple testing procedure that may accommodate high-dimensional covariates and (ii) demonstrate that it can also detect biases arising from misspecified IV...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638105

Implications of defining exogenous variables in Energy System Modeling with Integrated Assessment Models for transition planning

Fernandez Vazquez, Carlos A. A.; Flores, Francisco; … - 2026

The sustainable transition of energy systems heavily relies on models that provide diverse scopes and applications. This study explores how two modeling approaches can work in tandem and complement each other to provide a more robust framework for analyzing the development of energy systems at...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671403

Improved spatial dependence-robust inference via pre-whitening

Conley, Timothy G.; Kelly, Morgan; Kozbur, Damian - 2026

This paper presents a method to improve existing spatial dependence-robust inference procedures for spatial data. Our method involves augmenting a regression specification with functions of locations that reduce spatial correlation in regression scores and serves as a pre-whitener, followed by...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644690

Model-based calibration of the elasticity of substitution in energy under high flexibility

Baldauf, Thomas; Gils, Hans Christian; Schmugge, Jens; … - 2026

Macroeconomic models of the energy transition depend crucially on elasticity of substitution (EOS) parameters between dirty and clean energy inputs, which are, however, hard to calibrate for future energy systems. Thus, in this paper, we seek determining these values based on a numerical...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671954

A practical guide for modeling cross-border services trade at the sector level

Ahmad, Saad; Schreiber, Samantha - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650840

One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2025

This paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210360

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One who hesitates is lost : monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification

Ajevskis, Viktors - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Benchmark of likelihood-free inference methods based on neural and optimal transport approaches

Aka, Samira; Kratz, Marie; Naveau, Philippe - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677465

Design-based identification with formula instruments : a review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357823

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Design-based identification with formula instruments : a review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments : A Review

Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Applied economists routinely compare estimates across specifications, observe that they are "similar," and conclude that their results are "robust." This common procedure makes an implicit inferential claim about the range of estimates, but usually does not account for their joint sampling...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069307

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Robustness? : range tests for equality and equivalence across specifications

Jaeger, David A. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A general framework for participatory budgeting with additional constraints

Rey, Simon; Endriss, Ulle; Haan, Ronald de - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189535

Modeling spatial regimes with smooth transitions

Mattsson, Ingrid; Lyhagen, Johan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189541

Flexible representative democracy : an introduction with binary issues

Abramowitz, Ben; Mattei, Nicholas - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015189589

Double robust inference for continuous updating GMM

Kleibergen, Frank; Zhan, Zhaoguo - 2025

We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function. The (bounding) χ2 limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is robust to both misspecification and weak identification,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190343

Reflective vs. formative measurement models in operations and supply chain research

De Giovanni, Pietro - 2025

This research seeks to highlight a common mistake that researchers in the area of Operations and Supply Chain Management (O&SCM) make when selecting the measurement models in Structural Equation Modelling. In fat, the unproper selection of a measurement model in Structural Equation Modeling...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438600

Standard errors for calibrated parameters

Cocci, Matthew D.; Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458942

Beyond one-size-fits-all : designing monetary policy for diverse models and frequencies

Dück, Alexander; Verona, Fabio - 2025

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015181886

A new UK overlapping generations model

Brzezinski, Adam; Hantzsche, Arno; Watson, James - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015419611

From model misspecification to multidimensional welfare : a conversation with Professor Esfandiar Maasoumi

2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015460256

Model misspecification and data-driven model ranking approach for insurance loss and claims data

Basu, Suparna; Ng, H. K. Tony - 2025

Statistical models are crucial in analyzing insurance loss and claims data, offering insights into various risk elements. The prevailing statistical notion that "all models are wrong, but some are useful" can wield significant influence, particularly when multiple competing statistical models...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561470

Nowcasting monthly UK GDP : evidence from bottom-up sectoral modeling with big data methods and forecast combination algorithms

Carbo, Paula Bejarano; Macqueen, Rory; Xylangouras, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420054

Misspecification averse preferences

Maselli, Alfonso - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015424003

Misspecified learning and evolutionary stability

He, Kevin; Libgober, Jonathan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015578283

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Misspecified learning and evolutionary stability

He, Kevin; Libgober, Jonathan - 2025 - This version: September 19, 2025

Edition: This version: September 19, 2025

Book / Working Paper

On model aggregation and forecast combination

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Maasoumi, Esfandiar - 2025

Policy makers express their views and decisions via the lens of a particular model or theory. But since any model is a highly stylized representation of the unknowable object of interest, all these models are inherently misspecified, and the resulting ambiguity injects uncertainty in the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015464615

Appraising model complexity in option pricing

Cummins, Mark; Esposito, Francesco - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015376680

Learning models from prices

Dindo, Pietro; Massari, Filippo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015465964

Optimization strategy for the modeling and estimation of interactive effects

Hu, Xiaohui - 2024

Modeling policy effects in the context of high-dimensional data requires a balanced consideration of omitted interaction bias and overfitting problems. This paper investigates the role of machine learning algorithms in stabilizing estimates and demonstrates the possible regularization bias...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015054100

Non-carbon dioxide emissions modeling in integrated assessment models : a review

Yan, Hao-Ben; Liu, Lan-Cui; Kang, Jia-Ning; Yan, Jin; … - 2024

Modeling of non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in integrated assessment models (IAMs) is critical to achieving long-term climate targets. This study selects nine IAMs to reveal the modeling mechanisms and mitigation of non-CO2 GHGs. It further explores the impact of...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014584106

Quantile regression with log(0) outcomes

Liu, Xin; Kaplan, David M. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472248

Model uncertainty

Musolff, Robin; Zimmermann, Florian - 2025 - This version: July 30, 2025

Mental models help people navigate complex environments. This paper studies how people deal with model uncertainty. In an experiment, participants estimate a company's value, facing uncertainty about which one of two models correctly determines its true value. Using a between-subjects design, we...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015438632

Competing confirmatory factor analysis models in management research : bifactor modeling of the employee work assessment tool

Oamen, Theophilus Ehidiamen - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014584130

Machine learning for applied economic analysis : gaining practical insights

Smith, Matthew; Alvarez González, Francisco - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015441213

Challenges and opportunities for twenty first century Bayesian econometricians : a personal view

Dijk, Herman K. van - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631897

Negative control falsification tests for instrumental variable designs

Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; … - 2025 - Draft: April 9, 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015426424

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Negative control falsification tests for instrumental variable designs

Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Dependence modelling for heavy-tailed multi-peril insurance losses

Yan, Tianxing; Yi, Lu; Jeong, Himchan - 2024

The Danish fire loss dataset records commercial fire losses under three insurance coverages: building, contents, and profits. Existing research has primarily focused on the heavy-tail behaviour of the losses but ignored the relationship among different insurance coverages. In this paper, we aim...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636713

A simple specification test for models with many conditional moment inequalities

Marcoux, Mathieu; Russell, Thomas M.; Wan, Yuanyuan - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015075203

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A simple specification test for models with many conditional moment inequalities

Marcoux, Mathieu; Russell, Thomas M.; Wan, Yuanyuan - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Why applied macroeconomists should not use Bayesian estimation of DSGE models

Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng - 2025

This paper argues that the common practice of Bayesian estimation in applied macroeconomic DSGE modeling can lead to severely biased results when the imposed prior beliefs are misspecified. We demonstrate, through controlled Monte Carlo experiments on two canonical DSGE models (a Real Business...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549860