Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...

The publication presents the biographies and achievements of over 30 people who, since the beginning of the 20th century, have contributed to the development of the theory and methodology of statistical research at country level as well as internationally. The book is about statisticians who...

This study proposes a Bayesian semiparametric binary response model using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms since this Bayesian algorithm works when the maximum likelihood estimation fails. Implementing graphic processing unit computing improves the computation time because of its efficiency...

Income is an important economic indicator to measure living standards and individual well-being. In Germany, there exist different data sources that yield ambiguous evidence when analysing the income distribution. The Tax Statistics (TS) - an income register recording the total population of...

Due to the non-normality of stock returns, nonparametric rank tests are gaining accceptance relative to parametric tests in financial economics event studies. In rank tests, financial assets’ multiple day cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are replaced by cumulated ranks. This paper proposes...

In October 2021, the MEF asked Congress for the delegation of powers to legislate on tax matters with the aim of increasing tax collections and doing so by adding progressivity to the Peruvian tax system. The initiative being developed by the MEF contains (tentatively, to date) around 40...

In response to a request from the authorities and as part of the Data for Decisions (D4D)1 funded project under the submodule for Fiscal and Debt reporting, a government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was held remotely with the Lesotho Ministry of Finance (MOF) during...

This paper studies the effect of employee job selection in a model of statistical discrimination in a competitive labor market. In an economy in which there are quality differences between groups, a surprisingly strong condition is required to guarantee discrimination against the worse qualified...

The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years after its...

It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. Researchers adopt many strategies to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity. Among the most popular are: (a) chopping the data into short blocks of time and assuming homoskedasticity within the blocks, (b)...

Why does misinformation persist, and how does it distort the long-run beliefs and actions of rational agents? We study a model where receivers see an infinite stream of messages from a sender of unknown type who observes private signals about an unknown state of the world. We characterize the...

The capture ratio is a widely-used investment performance measure. We study the statistical problem of estimating the capture ratio based on a finite number of observations of a fund's returns. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimator and use it for testing whether one fund has a...

Information coefficient (IC) is one of the most commonly used statistics in quantitative financial analysis that is usually defined as the correlation coefficient between a variable's predicted and actual values. In this paper, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample average...

Investigators of social differentials in health outcomes commonly augment incomplete micro data by appending socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas (such as median income in a zip code) to proxy for individual characteristics. However, little empirical attention has been paid to how...

We complete the investigation on the asymptotic behavior of the drift burst test statistic devised in Christensen, Oomen and Ren\`o (2020). They analysed it for an Ito semimartingale containing a Brownian component and finite variation jumps. We also account for infinite variation jumps.We show...

This paper demonstrates that even under ideal conditions, social experiments in general only uniquely determine the mean impacts of programs but not the median or the distribution of program impacts. The conventional common parameter evaluation model widely used in econometrics is one case where...

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The key idea here is to leverage low-fidelity samples whose...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

Im Allgemeinen nutzen Forscherinnen und Forscher Daten-Transformationen als Hilfsmittel für die wissenschaftliche Arbeit unter den klassischen und linearen gemischten Regressionsmodellen, anstatt neue Theorien zu entwickeln, komplexe Methoden anzuwenden oder Softwarefunktionen zu erweitern....

An external sector statistics (ESS) mission visited Djibouti from January 26-30, 2020. This was the fourth mission under the JSA/AFR project to improve ESS in 17 Francophone African countries. The mission found that significant data on direct investment (DI) have not been incorporated in either...

At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), and with the support of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Western Hemisphere Department (WHD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) remote technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF's Statistics Department (STA)...

The Vanuatu National Statistics Office (VNSO) requested a mission by the IMF's Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) for conducting a feasibility study on the implementation of a quarterly national accounts (QNA) in Vanuatu. This study outlines the staff, organizational and data...

Scaling behavior measured in cross-sectional studies through the tail index of a power law is prone to a bias. This hampers inference; in particular, time variation in estimated tail indices may be erroneous. In the case of a linear factor model, the factor biases the tail indices in the left and...

At the request of the IMF's African Department (AFR) and the Bank of Cabo Verde (BCV), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) remote technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF's Statistics Department (STA) took place during January 18-29, 2021. The main objective of the mission was to...

This report evaluates Honduras's fiscal transparency practices in relation to the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Honduras's score is similar to those of other Latin American countries and emerging market economies that have undergone the evaluation. In relation to the fiscal transparency...

At the request of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and in consultation with the Africa Department (AFR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a remote Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission from the Statistics Department (STA) took place in Madagascar from October 26 to...

Despite having legal and institutional frameworks largely in place, Moldova continues to suffer from significant corruption and governance vulnerabilities. These are fairly pronounced in the areas of rule of law, anti-corruption, anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism...

This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue "Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance" of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers...

An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artefact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. This...

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why...

This paper applies the tool box measures of disaggregative income inequality characterization and the statistical methodology of Beach (2021) to percentile-based distribution statistics such as quintile income shares and decile means typically published by official statistical agencies. It...