Neben dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex Deutschland veröffentlicht das ifo Institut noch viele weitere Konjunkturindikatoren, wie etwa die Exporterwartungen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe oder das Beschäftigungsbarometer, und bietet Zeitreihen für zahlreiche Wirtschaftsbereiche an, die aus den...

This paper provides details on the sampling design, field results and nonresponse, as well as population adjustments for the 2018 Sample O of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Sample O refreshes the SOEPCore sample by adding the residents of households in neighborhoods that receive government...

We study large-sample properties of likelihood ratio tests of the unit root hypothesis in an autoregressive model of arbitrary, finite order. Earlier research on this testing problem has developed likelihood ratio tests in the autoregressive model of order one, but resorted to a plug-in approach...

This paper provides details on the sampling design, field results and nonresponse, as well as population adjustments for the 2018 Sample O of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Sample O refreshes the SOEPCore sample by adding the residents of households in neighborhoods that receive government...

The quality of the geographical breakdown in the balance of payments and related statistics (such as international trade in goods, trade in services and foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics) can be assessed by means of comparisons with mirror data in order to assess bilateral asymmetries....

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...

Rapid urbanization has resulted in sudden degradation of the environmental quality of urban settlements, which are difficult to measure and quantify. The present study attempts to provide an assessment of the environmental quality by developing environmental quality index (EQI) for the Ernakulam...

How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the...

How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the...

Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. This paper examines the likely impact of the rebalancing of the Chinese economy on its copper...

The Wald development of statistical decision theory addresses decision making with sample data. Wald's concept of a statistical decision function (SDF) embraces all mappings of the form [data → decision]. An SDF need not perform statistical inference; that is, it need not use data to draw...

This paper deals with instability in regression coefficients. We propose a Bayesian regression model with time-varying coefficients (TVC) that allows to jointly estimate the degree of instability and the time-path of the coefficients. Thanks to the computational tractability of the model and to...

This PhD thesis, entitled "Essays in Empirical Studies Based on Administrative Labour Market Data", is composed of three independent chapters, a general introduction for all three chapters at the beginning, and a brief conclusion in the end. While all three chapters are independent research...

Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an...

Does extreme downside risk require a risk premium in the pricing of individual assets? Extreme downside risk is a conditional measure for the co-movement of individual stocks with the market, given that the state of the world is extremely bad. This measure, derived from statistical extreme value...

Since the adoption of new methodological standards for European national accounts and balance of payments (BoP) statistics in 2014, both statistical domains should be directly comparable and fully consistent. The latter implies that data elements that describe the same economic phenomena related...