We assess the role of measurement error in minimum wage evaluations when the treatment variable - the bite - is inferred from a survey wage distribution. We conduct Monte Carlo experiments on both simulated and empirical distributions of measurement error derived from a record linkage of survey...

Standard growth incidence curves describe how growth episodes impact on the overall income distribution. However, measuring the pro-poorness of the growth process is complex due to (i) measurement errors and (ii) effect shocks that may hit the percentiles of the income distribution in different...

Understanding the relationship between disability and employment is critical and has long been the subject of study. However, estimating this relationship is difficult, particularly with survey data, since both disability and employment status are known to be misreported. Here, we use a partial...

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...

In empirical research, measuring correctly the benefits of welfare interventions is incredibly relevant for policymakers as well as academic researchers. Unfortunately, the endogenous program participation is often misreported in survey data and standard instrumental variable techniques are not...

Budget credibility, or the ability of governments to accurately forecast macro-fiscal variables, is crucial for effective public finance management. Fiscal marksmanship analysis captures the extent of errors in the budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules can determine fiscal marksmanship, as...

This paper analyses how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 affect firms’ investment propensity. Understanding how forecast errors affect firm investment behaviour is key to mitigate economic downturns during and after crisis...

We compile data for 186 countries (1919 - 2016) and apply different aggregation methods to create new democracy indices. We observe that most of the available aggregation techniques produce indices that are often too favorable for autocratic regimes and too unfavorable for democratic regimes....

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the...

Sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) are increasingly common. However, they usually result in a set of structural parameters that have very different implications in terms of impulse responses, elasticities, historical decomposition and forecast error variance decomposition...

This book brings together various contributions on research methods that can be qualified as innovative or alternative in the fields of economics and management. The idea came about during a discussion with colleagues from these disciplines. We had all explored and deepened our understandings of...

In this paper, we describe how to test for the presence of measurement error in explanatory variables. First, we discuss the test of such hypotheses in parametric models such as linear regressions and then introduce a new Stata command [R] dgmtest for a nonparametric test proposed in Wilhelm...

This paper proposes a simple nonparametric test of the hypothesis of no measurement error in explanatory variables and of the hypothesis that measurement error, if there is any, does not distort a given object of interest. We show that, under weak assumptions, both of these hypotheses are...

Survey error is known to be pervasive and to bias even simple, but important estimates of means, rates, and totals, such as poverty statistics and the unemployment rate. To summarize and analyze the extent, sources, and consequences of survey error, we define empirical counterparts of key...

Standard measures of productivity display enormous dispersion across farms in Africa. Crop yields and input intensities appear to vary greatly, seemingly in conflict with a model of efficient allocation across farms. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for distinguishing between...

Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics and occur whenever we observe an average in a specified group rather than the true individual value. In consumer demand this form of measurement error is present because the price an individual pays is often measured by the average price...

Viele Menschen interessieren sich für die künftige Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP), der Arbeitslosenzahlen, der Preise oder der Staatsausgaben. Dass Konjunkturprognosen jedoch umstritten sind, liegt auch an einem Missverständnis: Sie können und sollen keine exakte Vorhersage...

This paper focuses on the estimation and predictive performance of several estimators for the time-space dynamic panel data model with Spatial Moving Average Random Effects (SMA-RE) structure of the disturbances. A dynamic spatial Generalized Moments (GM) estimator is proposed which combines the...

In this paper, we describe how to test for the presence of measurement error in explanatory variables. First, we discuss the test of such hypotheses in parametric models such as linear regressions and then introduce a new Stata command [R] dgmtest for a nonparametric test proposed in Wilhelm...

Accurately measuring government benefit receipt in household surveys is necessary when studying disadvantaged populations and the programs that serve them. The Food Stamp Program is especially important given its size and recent growth. To validate survey reports, we use administrative data on...

This study uses Monte Carlo experiments to produce new evidence on the performance of a wide range of panel data estimators. It focuses on estimators that are readily available in statistical software packages such as Stata and Eviews, and for which the number of cross-sectional units (N) and...

The UK national minimum wage (NMW) is age-specific with the most important threshold at the age of 22 (lowered to 21 from 2010 onwards) when workers become eligible for the adult rate. The authors estimate the impact of this threshold on employment by means of a regression discontinuity...

This paper develops the identification and estimation of nonlinear semi-parametric panel data models with mismeasured variables and their corresponding average partial effects using only three periods of data. The past observables are used as instruments to control the measurement error problem,...

This study investigates the predictability of revisions to Euro-area major macroeconomic variables using real-time data from the European Central Bank. The application of nonparametric and semiparametric tests enables robust conclusions about the predictability of revisions. Though there is wide...

This paper proposes a simple nonparametric test of the hypothesis of no measurement error in explanatory variables and of the hypothesis that measurement error, if there is any, does not distort a given object of interest. We show that, under weak assumptions, both of these hypotheses are...