In this article, we examine the dynamic interdependencies among components of Japan's consumer price index (CPI) using a two-lag time-varying loading factor (TLTVLF) model. Whereas previous studies have typically decomposed CPI series into long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and cyclical...

This paper examines Mexico's integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs) and its implications for structural change over the period 1995-2020. Using a multiregional input-output framework, the analysis decomposes gross exports into domestic and foreign value added and combines these indicators...

Using French micro-data, we show that rapid structural transformation in densely populated cities is driven by the expansion of large tradable services firms and the departure of large manufacturing firms. This reallocation is accompanied by sharply rising house prices but without a compensating...

Export baskets reflect broader processes of structural change and economic development. While most studies emphasize the emergence of new export specializations, this paper examines an equally important yet neglected pattern-trade exits, defined as sustained declines in revealed comparative...

Industrialization is key for economic development but how it interacts with climate change mitigation is insufficiently understood. However, this relationship is important for scenarios of climate change mitigation, such as reviewed by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), that seek...

This paper investigates the effects of automation on employment dynamics and within-firm earnings inequality in South Africa's formal manufacturing sector. By leveraging matched employeremployee administrative records linked to firm-level import transactions, we find that firms adopting...

Over the last forty years, Latin American countries (LACs) have experienced a variety of specialization trajectories, while sharing a common pattern of weak and unstable growth. Given the accelerated premature deindustrialization path and the loss of productive capacity, manufacturing has...

African economies are undergoing significant structural transformation, transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing, services, and technology-driven industries. Driven by urbanization, technological innovation, and global trade, this shift offers opportunities for sustainable growth but...

Gender gaps in employment have narrowed but remain substantial, particularly among couples. To estimate how improved female wage opportunities influence partners' employment choices, I exploit demand-driven wage changes in job tasks and German administrative data. Results indicate women respond...

We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth; (ii) digitalization reducing trade...

This paper analyzes whether Chinese aid and other forms of official finance affect structural transformation in low- and-middle income countries. Specifically, we employ an instrumental variables (IV) approach to causally analyze the effect on the Economic Complexity Index of 98 recipient...

The German labor market has undergone profound changes over the last decades. For a long time, the debate on structural change focused on the shift from manufacturing industries to services. This Weekly Report highlights that labor market changes are attributable to three developments: In...

In this discussion paper, we explore the concept of "societal innovativeness" as a key driver of transformative regional development, particularly within the context of regions facing structural weaknesses. Our explorative study delves into the multifaceted nature of societal innovativeness,...

Inequality at the top is on the rise, and labour income is a progressively larger contributor to concentration at the top. This paper investigates top earnings inequality in South Africa from a sectoral and firm-level perspective, using matched employer-employee administrative data. We also...

In this paper, we evaluate the potential of digitalisation to drive structural transformations toward a sustainable economy. We apply an index decomposition analysis (IDA) to understand the factors influencing energy demand in a panel of 31 high-income countries from 1971 to 2019. The IDA...

Structural change means a long-term change in the composition of economic output: agriculture, industry, and services. First, we describe this process in the context of Thailand. Second, we analyse its causes using a simple, comparative static computable general equilibrium model of the Thai...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden's deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden’s deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden's deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional accounting approach, we find that the well-documented transition from goods to services is...

We analyse the decline in social insurance coverage in Egypt from 2007 to 2023 to determine the extent to which it was due to compositional shifts in the structure of the economy and workforce, or to changes in coverage for specific types of jobs and workers. We conclude that only a fraction of...

Worker mobility plays a central role in facilitating structural change and addressing labour shortages in labour markets. This paper examines the incentives for workers to change jobs or occupations by analyzing subsequent gains in earnings and job satisfaction. We distinguish between different...

This paper studies the labor market impact of structural change by distinguishing between industry- and occupation-based measures of manufacturing and service employment. Using German data from 1975-2019, we find that 67% of manufacturing jobs lost in manufacturing industries are offset by new...