Search Results - subject_exact:"Szenarioanalyse"

Hybrid electric vehicles and CO₂ emission mitigation in Tunisia : a LEAP model analysis

Daldoul, Manel; Dakhlaoui, Ahlem - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617022

Global spatiotemporal multi-criteria analysis of coastal risk : current and future hot spots and clusters

Bidoia, Marco; Giupponi, Carlo - 2026

Coastal zones are among the environments most threatened by climate change. Although various efforts for global mapping and classification of coastal social and ecological systems have been undertaken, the ability to analyse and describe the spatial heterogeneity and multidimensionality of these...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588204

The German Energiewende : a green deal template or planned failure?

Deshaies, Michel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620434

Evaluation of the economic impact of electricity blackout scenarios for the automotive sector and the Slovak economy

Turcsek, Patrik; Lábaj, Martin - 2026

We estimate the economic consequences of electricity blackout scenarios on the automotive industry and the Slovak economy. Our estimates of inoperability of the automotive sector range from 2.9 % to 4.2 % across regions on the first day of the blackout, while the overall inoperability of the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626591

Strategic foresight for FinTech governance : a scenario-based MCDA approach for Kuwait

Kayed, Salah; Alhawwatma, Zaid; Morshed, Amer; Khrais, … - 2026

This study investigates how strategic foresight can enhance FinTech governance and policy resilience in emerging economies, using Kuwait as an illustrative case. It aims to identify which foresight interventions should be prioritized across alternative futures to strengthen innovation, security,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628715

Lage und Risiken der chemischen Industrie

Mergner, Louisa; Bovenschulte, Marc; Wolter, Marc Ingo; … - 2026

Die Chemieindustrie steht im Zentrum der sozial-ökologischen Transformation: Als größter industrieller Verbraucher von Mineralölen und Erdgas in Deutschland und damit bedeutender Verursacher von Emissionen ist sie in besonderem Maße gefordert, sich grundlegend zu verändern. Ohne eine...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637835

Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters

Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638609

A glimpse on the futures of telecommunication networks : from market, technology and regulation trends to strategic foresight

Corazza, Giovanni Emanuele; Rinaldi, Ilaria; Coletto, Irene - 2026

This paper explores the current state, trends, and possible futures of the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, outlining strategies for development. We adopt a combined methodology, integrating participatory scenario building through the Nominal Group Technique with a structured literature...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639701

Assessing climate risks in Uruguay's banks using NGFS short-term scenarios

Barón, Andrea; Dassatti Camors, Cecilia; Lavagna, Gabriela - 2026

The agricultural sector is a key driver of the Uruguayan economy, making it particularly vulnerable to hydrometeorological events. This paper assesses the impact of severe physical risk events - combining droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires - on the capital position of Uruguayan banks, using the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643949

Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?

Mammetti, Veronica; Zenios, Stauros Andrea; Morelli, Giacomo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644724

At the Edge of Risk : Assessing Mongolia’s “Plausible Worst-Case” Scenario

Petrauskaite, Migle; Lin, Xinru; Pollitt, Hector - 2026

This paper develops a plausible worst-case scenario for Mongolia in which three major disasters—a sudden collapse in coal exports to China, a prolonged dzud (severe winter disaster), and a severe flood in Ulaanbaatar—occur in quick succession. While each event has precedent in Mongolia, an...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655956

The climate-fiscal timebomb : how climate change will impact public budgets

Sood, Jaya; Mang, Sebastian; Caddick, Dominic; Schmidt, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650729

After globalisation? : the future of European Multinationals in an era of geopolitical uncertainty

Baldermann, Sebastian; Coeurderoy, Régis; Duplat, Valérie - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652517

The counterfactual scenario : are renewables cheaper?

Simshauser, Paul; Gilmore, Joel - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652769

A machine-learning approach to identifying drivers of CO₂ emissions in China's computing power infrastructure

Li, Pin; De, Gejirifu; Zhang, Jinsuo; Zou, Shaohui; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653240

The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653629

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The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Simulating the Economy-Energy-Environment (3E) system under policy scenarios : evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Jing, Munan; Zhao, Xinyu; Zhao, Pengda - 2026

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China faces challenges in achieving sustainable development, necessitating a delicate balance between rapid economic growth, environmental protection, and efficient energy utilization. Against this background, this paper develops a System Dynamics (SD)...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653851

Identifying scenarios of interest under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, Jan; Auping, Willem L.; End, Jan-Willem van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632827

Supporting renewable energy or carbon capture : how can it change the energy transition?

Al Jarboua, Abdullah; Alyamani, Ryan; Durand-Lasserve, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671074

Participatory scenario planning for energy governance under uncertainty : Insights from Iran

Hafezi, Reza; Rahimirad, Zohreh - 2026

This study develops national-level energy governance scenarios for Iran under global energy uncertainty, using a participatory, expert-based scenario planning approach. Combining global foresight with localized expert insights, the framework integrates taxonomy analysis and scenario logic to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675816

Scenario simulation of CO₂ emissions and mitigation pathways in the Yangtze River Delta under the "Dual Carbon" goals : medium-to long-term projections with the LEAP-SJZA model

Fang, Xin; Yang, Li - 2026

As one of China's most economically active, open and innovative regions, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) boasts strategic significance in the country's modernization and further opening-up. Exploring its medium-to long-term carbon emission trends and mitigation potential is crucial to achieving...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670802

Assessing the climate sensitivity of wind power resources : multi scenario-based analysis via bias-corrected CMIP6 scenarios

Kartal, Veysi; Karakoyun, Erkan; Bayrak, Fatih; Scholz, … - 2026

Wind energy is a key pillar of low-carbon transitions, yet wind power density (WPD) is highly sensitive to climate-driven changes in near-surface winds and their seasonality. This study presents projected relative changes (%) in WPD over Türkiye for the period 2025-2100 under SSP1-2.6,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672115

Scenario analysis in the AI era : redefining human involvement

Shinkle, George A.; Gujarati, Chirag; Sharry, Patrick - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677883

Deciphering drivers and pathways of green and low-carbon technology innovation in China : an extended LMDI decomposition and policy-scenario analysis

Tan, Shiqi; Yao, Liming; Xu, Zhongwen; Long, Yin; Xie, … - 2026

This study addresses the urgent need for technological solutions to combat climate change by examining the development of green and low-carbon technology (GLCT) patents in China from 2000 to 2020. Given China's dual-carbon goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670788

Exploring decarbonisation strategies in the Southern-European region of Catalonia through a multi-scenario assessment

Alcover Comas, Enric; Guardia Calsina, Pol; Samsó, Roger; … - 2026

This study evaluates decarbonisation pathways for the southern European region of Catalonia, addressing the critical gap of downscaling biophysical system-dynamics models to regional contexts. We explore variations in economic growth, energy efficiency, and renewable energy deployment. Using...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674976

Scenario disclosure and market expectations : insights from earnings conferences via large language models

Li, Sihai; Wang, Ruiqi; Li, Zhen - 2026

A scenario described vividly and in detail is more easily imagined, leading individuals to overestimate the likelihood of its occurrence. We leverage a novel large-language-model (LLM) framework to analyze management speech style during unstructured earnings conferences and construct...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672037

A strategic energy consumption management model : performance evaluation of policy scenarios under sustainable development toward net zero emissions

Sutthichaimethee, Pruethsan; Sutthichaimethee, Jindamas; … - 2026

This research aims to develop an advanced modeling framework for formulating national strategic management under sustainability toward achieving the net zero emissions target. The study constructs a model referred to as the Generalized Method of Moments based on Path Analysis with Exogenous...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677287

Probabilistic long-term forecasting of solar irradiance under climate change using deep learning and Monte Carlo simulations

Saidani, Khaoula; Essaddi, Nejla; Besbes, Mongi - 2026

While traditional forecasting models assume a stationary climate, the accelerating impact of climate change in arid zones like Southern Tunisia has introduced significant non-stationarity and variance in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). The objective of this study is not to simulate specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677324

A nonparametric approach to augmenting a Bayesian VAR with nonlinear factors

Clark, Todd E.; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073010

Regional foresight and scenario modeling of socio-economic transformation : the case of the Kostanay Region, Kazakhstan

Sergeyeva, Aigul; Makhambetov, Murat; Keubasova, Gaukhar; … - 2026

This study investigates the spatial and socio-economic transformation of the labour market in the Kostanay Region of Kazakhstan through the application of foresight and scenario modelling. The research aims to construct a conceptual and predictive framework of regional employment transformation...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016071037

Co-mapping future scenarios and uncertainties amid climate crisis : a collective study of coastal towns and the Port of Tyne

Jin, Jiayi; Laing, Richard; Zhu, Mingyu - 2026

This study investigates the transformative potential of post-industrial coastal towns surrounding the Port of Tyne by integrating the values and priorities of local communities. Focusing on underutilised brownfield sites, it develops innovative regeneration strategies that address entrenched...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069394

Scenario analysis as a tool for communicating risks in macroeconomic forecasts

Millard, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064527

Consumption and saving in the euro area after COVID : a scenario analysis

Ceci, Donato; Pacella, Claudia; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016063132

A multidimensional framework for analysis of Cuba's 100% renewable energy system and the interlinkages of sustainable development goals

Saunders Vazquez, Anaely; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Majanne, Yrjo; … - 2026

The global transition to renewable energy systems is imperative for climate sustainability. However, nations face significant challenges, including financial constraints, grid vulnerabilities, and dependence on fossil fuels. This study evaluates the feasibility of a 100% renewable electricity...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082978

Climate neutrality scenarios : how they deal with economic growth, employment and social acceptance

Lange, Sarah; Lange, Steffen - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083632

Pakistan's exposure to a strait of hormuz shock : fuel pricing, inflation, and external vulnerability

Satti, Ahsan ul Haq; Nawaz, Shahzada M. Naeem - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618900

The macroeconomic and biophysical impacts of decarbonization and circular economy strategies a scenario analysis for Austria

Meyer, Ina; Sommer, Mark; Baumgart, André; … - 2026

Growth in resource use is a key driver of climate change and environmental degradation. In recognition of this, a few governments have set targets to reduce their countries' per capita resource use while striving to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. In this context, the concept...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016085296

Incorporating electricity, gas and hydrogen grid infrastructures within a single energy system framework : an example with TIMES PanEU

Zhang, Peiwen; Blesl, Markus - 2026

Although coordinated planning of energy infrastructure is essential for achieving decarbonization targets, integrated modeling approaches that represent multiple energy infrastructures within a single energy system framework remain limited, despite their potential to capture cross-infrastructure...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016085804

Probability of Default (PD) under systemic stress scenarios

Habibi, Reza - 2026

Systemic risk has essential impact on PD of a firm. In the current paper, under scenario of systemic crisis, the behavior of DD credit risk measure is studied and its relation to market and climate betas are proposed. Then, optimum leverage ratio and prudential coefficient are derived. Finally,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016085866

Scenario Analysis for the Czech Republic : Using the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF)

Gade, Thomas - 2026

This paper applies the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) to the Czech Republic with the aim of contributing to the use of scenario analysis at the Czech National Bank (CNB). The paper identifies some shallowness of FX markets as the main relevant friction under the IPF. Moreover, while...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087791

Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence : Lessons from a Scenario Planning Exercise

Barhoumi, Karim - 2026

This note synthesizes insights from a high-level workshop and scenario-planning exercise on the global economic and financial implications of artificial intelligence (AI) hosted by the IMF in December 2025. AI is advancing rapidly and has the potential to restructure the global economy, which...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087884

Modeling urban energy transitions under uncertainty : integrating robust and adaptive planning with economic and financial considerations

Duan, Yuzhen; Hong, Ruiqing; Lin, Jie; Yang, Xi - 2026

Growing demand, technological change, weather variability, and evolving policy frameworks pose significant uncertainties for long-term urban energy planning. This study develops and applies an integrated TIMES_NE urban energy modeling framework to examine adaptive planning pathways for...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016084197

Operationalising circular futures : scenario-based modelling of WEEE supply chains

Fussone, Rebecca; Fussone, Rachele; Favazza, Enrico; … - 2026

Background: Circular economy transitions challenge conventional supply chain design and require decision-support tools that remain valid across multiple plausible futures. However, futures thinking in circular supply chain research is still used mainly as a narrative device, with limited...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090013

Scenario planning for strategic decision-making, learning, and managing uncertainty

Chermack, Thomas J.; Crawford, Megan M.; Haigh, Nardia; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090493

Challenges in navigating scenario planning

Gonzalez, Steven; Heracleous, Loizos - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090499

Bringing back intuition into scenario planning

Metz, Ashley; Sadler-Smith, Eugene - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090501

Verbesserter Konjunkturausblick für 2027 - Inflation auf Euroraum-Niveau : Interimsprognose der OeNB vom September 2026

Fenz, Gerhard; Prammer, Doris; Schneider, Martin; … - 2026

Trotz des Kriegs im Nahen und Mittleren Osten und der Dürre in diesem Sommer wird die heimische Wirtschaft im zweitem Halbjahr 2026 wieder auf einen Wachstumspfad einschwenken. Die OeNB erwartet für die Jahre 2026 bis 2028 ein BIP-Wachstum von 0,5 %, 1,3 % und 1,2 %. Grund für die leichte...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090696

Density scenarios and urban expansion in Africa towards 2050

San Emeterio, José-Luis - 2026

Urbanisation is one of the major socio economic transformations underway in Africa. According to Africapolis data, the continent's urban population is projected to double from 700 million to 1.4 billion between 2020 and 2050, profoundly transforming Africa's urban areas and their peripheries....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090800

Multivariate uncertainty and distributional transmission

Schröder, Maximilian - 2026

Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016090919

Structuring logistics and supply chain complexity : a systematic review of problem structuring methods

Sadeghi Darvazeh, Saeed; Mooseloo, Farzaneh Mansoori; … - 2026

Background: Supply chains are becoming increasingly complex, interconnected, and stakeholder-intensive, making effective problem formulation as important as identifying optimal solutions. Although problem structuring methods (PSMs) have been widely applied in logistics and supply chain...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016089741