Despite far-reaching banking sector reforms over the past few years, financial intermediation in Tajikistan continues to lag behind structural peers and the Caucasus and Central Asia region. At the same time, bank interest rate spreads, a standard measure of financial intermediation costs, have...

In contrast to most Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, Central Asia (CA) - comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - has witnessed quite robust demographic as well as economic growth in the period from 2019 to 2024. This period was...

Tajikistan has continued to navigate the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4 percent during January-September 2024, while inflation remained well-contained at 3.1 percent (y/y) in September. Robust remittances have boosted the external position, with FX reserves at more than...

This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper...

Der russische Krieg gegen die Ukraine und die geopolitischen Verschiebungen auf dem eurasischen Kontinent haben Zentralasien wieder verstärkt in den Fokus Deutschlands und der EU gerückt. Die strategische Regionalpartnerschaft der Bundesrepublik mit Zentralasien, die im vergangenen Herbst...

The assistance assessed Tajikistan's public investment management practices and their climate sensitivity using the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) with the Climate Module (C-PIMA). Tajikistan was found to perform well in some areas of the PIMA and C-PIMA, but there were gaps in...

This report summarizes findings from a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and the Climate Module (C-PIMA) conducted for Tajikistan. The assessment evaluated the country's public investment management practices, including their climate sensitivity. Tajikistan performs well in certain...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen...

Russia's war against Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts on the Eurasian continent have brought Central Asia back into the focus of Germany and the EU. Germany's strategic regional partnership with Central Asia, which was announced last autumn, offers promising potential for cooperation....

Tajikistan's economic performance remains favorable as remittance inflows and public investment continue to support domestic demand but there is uncertainty over the outlook in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions. Public debt is sustainable but sizeable investment needs constrain...

Tajikistan holds the eighth position globally in terms of hydropower potential, estimated at 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a technically exploitable capacity of 317 TWh. Only 4-6 percent of this immense potential is currently utilized. In this paper, employing a combination of the Johansen...

Der russische Krieg gegen die Ukraine und die geopolitischen Verschiebungen auf dem eurasischen Kontinent haben Zentralasien wieder verstärkt in den Fokus Deutschlands und der EU gerückt. Die strategische Regionalpartnerschaft der Bun­desrepublik mit Zentralasien, die im vergangenen Herbst...

Women entrepreneurs in Tajikistan confront disproportionate challenges in their businesses compared to their male counterparts, with cross-border traders being no exception. The World Bank initiated the Fourth Phase of the Central Asia Regional Links Program in 2020, aiming to boost Tajikistan's...

This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Tajikistan continued to experience strong growth in 2022, with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine as strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Fiscal space remains limited due to debt sustainability concerns, and...

This report summarizes the main challenges that men- and women-led companies (also referred to as traders or trade firms) and customs brokers face in undertaking cross-border trade of merchandise goods in the Republic of Tajikistan. The report also provides recommendations to address these...

Private sector participation in the Tajik economy is relatively large, but dynamism is very low. Analysis with micro-level data points to multiple weaknesses: low entry rate, low productivity, limited integration to trade, low incidence of innovation, and limited capabilities. Also revealing is...

This report outlines the main results of a study conducted to assess the potential role of landscape restoration/nature-based solutions/green infrastructure in the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan, to reduce the impacts of soil erosion on the hydropower cascade, increase agricultural productivity,...

The Air Quality Management (AQM) system in Tajikistan needs strengthening in its key policy and institutional as well as technical aspects to reduce health impacts of air pollution in the most polluted airsheds (Dushanbe and other urban centers). The World Bank's first engagement to strengthen...

This paper examines the effect of exposure to extremist ideologies on the integration of Afghan refugees in Tajikistan, using a 2023 census following the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan. It finds that Afghan refugees born in provinces with increased Taliban territorial control between 2017 and...

"A translocal ethnography about Tajik migrants' engagement in projects of reform Islamic life in Dubai, the book maps Gulf migration onto larger geographies of Muslim mobility, piety and belonging across places in Eurasia, the Gulf, and wider Middle East. Spatializing the intersection of...

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and 1992-96 Tajik civil war resulted in huge human and economic losses. Nevertheless, contemporary data suggest the persistence of investments in human capital in the region most affected by famine and least favoured since the cessation of hostilities,...

The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Over the last 20 years, the countries of the region have made significant progress in their development, and have far-reaching growth prospects. The region’s GDP has been increasing at an average rate...

The country opinion survey in Tajikistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Tajikistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral and bilateral agencies, media,...

This working paper takes into account six sources of financing - international reserves, swap arrangements, EFSD, IMF, multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support for macrostabilization. The analysis is of particular importance in the context of the current crisis associated...

By employing comparative data, this paper addresses a central question: why is tax collection in Tajikistan lower than in other transitional countries? It presents a comparative analysis of the role of weak institutions and a shadow economy in determining the low level of tax effort measured by...

This paper examines the recent technological performance of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and identifies opportunities for their technological and industrial upgrading in the context of the current global technological trends. The manuscript develops a three-pronged industrial upgrading...

The paper examines recent macroeconomic performance and macroeconomic management frameworks in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. It also reviews existing literature on macroeconomic policies recommended for technological development of low/lower middle income countries. The literature...

Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change with weak adaptive capacities. This analysis summarises adaptation technologies for agricultural, water, transport and health sectors, as well as disaster risks management technologies,...

Российскую версию этой статьи можно найти в: http://ssrn.com/abstract=4030635.The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the sensitivity of economies and their debt positions to a wide range of disruptions: not only financial shocks may hamper economic growth, but...

This study aims to contribute to understanding the potential risks and impacts of both explicit and implicit contingent liability shocks on government fiscal and debt positions in the EFSD recipient countries. Special attention is paid to the significance of state-owned enterprises and their...

In 2009–2017, economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lived through periods of adverse external and domestic conditions characterized by weak external demand and falling export prices. Devaluation of domestic currencies following the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble,...

Remittance inflows are now the largest source of external financing to developing countries, but little research has yet firmly established the effect of remittances on household welfare. We investigate the case of Tajikistan, one of the most heavily remittance-dependent countries in the world....

Turkey's neo-Eurasianist ideologues describe themselves as “Kemalist Eurasianists”. They argue that “Eurasianism calls for a cultural, military, political and commercial alliance with Turkey’s eastern neighbors, notably Russia, Iran, the Turkic countries of Central Asia, and even...