Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed...

Purpose - the purpose of our article is to study structural changes in the national economy using a portfolio model of sectors with different returns and, on this basis, processing the methodology for identifying the current state and instrumental factors of economic policy. Research methodology...

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks on the labour market resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, comparing the franc zone countries on one hand, from the non-franc zone countries on the other hand. The results from the PVAR...

This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and economic growth in 14 Latin American economies from 1997 to 2014. In the 2000s, Latin American countries experienced accelerated economic growth often attributed to commodity price booms. We split the...

This paper investigates the sources of terms of trade volatility, specifically addressing the relative importance of goods-price effects vs. country-price effects. For fuel exporters, most of the terms of trade variation stems from goods-price effects, as one would have expected, a priori. For...

We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities’ net exporters or net importers) allows to evaluate the relative...

Based on a panel of 53 advanced and emerging countries, we evaluate the contribution of both terms of trade level and volatility shocks in explaining business cycle fluctuations. By estimating with an SVAR-SV model with the stochastic volatility built in the mean equation, we find the level...

In the presence of economies of scale in the investment technology, trade openness may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment, its cyclical behavior, and the volatility of the terms of trade. Trade openness may lead to boom-bust cycles of investment supported by self-fulfilling...

In this paper we employ index number theory in addressing the problem of adjusting real national income and real domestic product for changes in a country's terms of trade. More specifically, using recent developments in the theory of production, we address the problems related to measuring: (i)...

Measures of long term trends in world export prices of manufactured goods and in the terms of trade between manufactured goods and primary products are sensitive to the choice of country weights and of base periods and, most important of all, the treatment of quality change. Later base periods...

The import and export price indices of an economy are usually compiled by some Laspeyres type index. It is well known that such an index formula is prone to substitution bias. Therefore, also the terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are likely to be distorted. The underlying...

Do preferential trade agreements (PTAs) lead to greater market integration, more intense competition and less market power for firms? This paper integrates the detailed data on 257 preferential trade agreements from the World Bank's Deep Trade Agreements (DTA) database with administrative...

Between 1986 and 2003 the Argentine risk premium was able to explain, almost alone, the Argentine business cycle. As time went by, the premium lost gradually its explanatory power till losing it all between 2011 and 2019. Meanwhile, a huge increase in public expenditure might have triggered a...

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS...

This paper investigates the spending and current-account effects of permanent terms-of-trade shifts in a model where households maximize utility over an infinite planning period. In the framework we adopt, an economy specialized in production must experience a fall in aggregate spending and a...

Debate over trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures, their causes and their impact has dominated the literature for more than a century. Classical economists claimed that the terms of trade of primary commodities should improve since land and natural resources...

This paper examines the desirability of wage indexation in an open economy subject to economic disturbances which change the terms of trade and raise the prices of imported goods. Two indexation rules are considered, the traditional form of indexation to the consumer price index and indexation...

This essay surveys the upcoming 2005-06 term of the Supreme Court, a term that may be as notable for what it says about the future direction of the Supreme Court as it is for specific decisions in any particular cases. This does not mean the term lacks important cases. To the contrary, this...

This paper analyses the effects of productivity shocks on the current and future terms of trade and on output in a two country framework. An overlapping-generations model is used in which individuals allocate their savings between domestic and foreign capital assets according to their...

The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over...

The paper uses an intertemporal perfect-foresight optimizing model to analyze the effect of transitory terms-of-trade shocks on a small open . economy's current-account and utility time profiles. An adverse terms-of-trade shift known to be temporary induces the economy to run down its stock of...

Predicting the direction of Stock Indices has always been an appealing topic which has motivated researchers over the years to develop better predictive models. Recently, Machine learning (ML) based models have been frequently deployed to forecast the direction of classic financial time series...

This paper uses three models of a small open economy to analyze the effects of terms of trade and exchange rate changes (i.e. devaluations) on labor market adjustment. First, a three goods (exportables, importables, non-tradables), four factors model is developed and used to investigate how an...

This paper examines the connection between money and the terms of trade in the context of a simple monetary equilibrium model with flexible prices. Money is held for transactions purposes. Because carrying out financial transactions is costly, households visit their financial intermediaries only...

Latin American economies are exposed to substantial external vulnerability. Domestic imbalances and terms of trade shocks are often exacerbated by sudden stops of capital inflow. In this paper we explore ways of overcoming external vulnerability, drawing lessons from a detailed comparison of the...