Recent evidence shows that imports of critical products can be concentrated on a small number of supplier countries. Such supplies are therefore vulnerable to disruption, whether because unfriendly governments seek to weaponize dependency or for other reasons. In a laissez-faire equilibrium,...

The new US administration has a clear agenda of reducing imports to the US and attract FDI by reducing tariffs and using the proceeds for supporting investment in the US. This paper uses a dynamic two country US vs RoW model where monopolistically competitive firms make export and FDI decisions....

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a wide-ranging set of "reciprocal tariffs" against many of its trading partners. The calculation of these tariffs have elicited a largely negative reaction in part due to the simple formula used to calculate them. In this note, I provide a model...

As a growing number of countries face rising tariffs in 2025, stablecoins may be the answer to geoeconomic fragmentation by providing solutions that enhance trade efficiency in response to protectionist policies and regional alliances. While the United States leverages stablecoins to reinforce...

A major section of the existing literature on strategic trade policy, following a partial equilibrium framework, observed that imposition of tariff by the domestic country leads to a rise in their wage level. Analysis on the impact of strategic trade policy intervention (tariff) on wages and...

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared "Liberation Day", announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs through the lens of a trade model that features flexible tariff passthrough and endogenous trade...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a...

We examine the potential economic impacts of the new United States (US) tariff on Cambodia using a dynamic global general equilibrium model (GTAP-FIN). We simulate the impact of US tariff increases announced in August 2025 while also examining two additional hypothetical cases for Cambodia....

This paper reveals significant errors in a key variable in international trade: tariff rates. The issues arise from incomplete reporting, leading to measurement error from false interpolation by the data provider, the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and selection bias from dropping...

Addressing climate change requires the deployment of green technologies. Using novel transaction-level import data from firms in 35 emerging markets in a firm-level structural gravity model, this paper examines the trade policy determinants of firms' imports of products associated with green...

Although there are many news articles of tariff dodging via the re-routing of made-in-China goods through third countries, relabeling these goods as made in Mexico or made in Vietnam, there have been no scientific studies on this issue. This paper provides statistical evidence regarding whether...

Rising globalization has exerted a downward pressure on global tariffs, thereby eroding tariff revenues in developing nations. We analyse how gains from lowering import tariffs are distributed within the firm and the corresponding tax (base) implications. First, we study the effect of tariff...

Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners, calling for more "reciprocity". These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries' tariffs on others have become over time. Given a presumed...

This paper first presents a dynamic model that features both real and monetary aspects of international trade and is capable of dealing with both full employment and secular unemployment. The model is then utilized to examine the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade, the trade pattern, real...

The discretionary 2018 increase in the average tariff from 2% to 12% will have broad effects across the US economy reflected in the present predicted factor shares of capital, labor, skilled labor, and energy input. Error correction estimates of a Linear Almost Ideal Demand System introduce the...

We consider an upstream firm dealing with a downstream firm either via a two-part tariff or a linear tariff. The downstream firm faces demand uncertainty, it is risk-averse, and it must incur a fixed cost before demand realization. We show that when the fixed cost is relatively high, it is...

We study how the most-favored-nation (MFN) clause affects the tariffs of an importer, technology adoption by exporters, and global welfare. Our main contribution is to consider the disclosure effect of the MFN clause, that is, the fact that it makes tariffs not only uniform but also observable...

We analyze whether--and, if so, how--Americans reacted to the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China in June 2018. To address this issue, we leverage surveys conducted in the U.S. during this phase of the economic clash. We find a significant reduction in support for...