Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies...

This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network....

When the UK left the EU, it introduced a new import tariff schedule, one of the largest MFN tariff reforms in decades of a developed economy. This paper exploits this policy change to estimate the elasticity of imports to MFN tariffs, addressing the endogeneity of trade policy through two...

We consider welfare impacts of prohibitive tariffs on trading partners. Initially, there is prohibitive tariff by one country and a zero tariff by its trading partner. Thereafter, the trading partner also resorts to prohibitive tariff. We demonstrate how prohibitive tariffs by the trading...

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared "Liberation Day", announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs through the lens of a trade model that features flexible tariff passthrough and endogenous trade...

The new US administration has a clear agenda of reducing imports to the US and attract FDI by reducing tariffs and using the proceeds for supporting investment in the US. This paper uses a dynamic two country US vs RoW model where monopolistically competitive firms make export and FDI decisions....

Recent evidence shows that imports of critical products can be concentrated on a small number of supplier countries. Such supplies are therefore vulnerable to disruption, whether because unfriendly governments seek to weaponize dependency or for other reasons. In a laissez-faire equilibrium,...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

A major section of the existing literature on strategic trade policy, following a partial equilibrium framework, observed that imposition of tariff by the domestic country leads to a rise in their wage level. Analysis on the impact of strategic trade policy intervention (tariff) on wages and...

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a wide-ranging set of "reciprocal tariffs" against many of its trading partners. The calculation of these tariffs have elicited a largely negative reaction in part due to the simple formula used to calculate them. In this note, I provide a model...

What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a...

Recently announced and enacted US tariffs reduce partners’ access to the US market and lead to trade diversion. Impacted countries may respond in (at least) three ways: imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, resorting to industrial policy to support their producers, and/or signing trade...

The announcements by President Trump in April 2025, of unilateral hikes of 10-50 percentage points on U.S. import tariffs on all countries' goods, are under threat of coming into force on July 9, 2025. This article estimates their likely effects on trade in alcoholic beverages, using a global...