We provide initial estimates of the additional weapons and troops Europe will need to defend itself, assuming an effective US withdrawal from Europe. Russia's military production has ramped up: In 2024, Russia produced and refurbished an estimated 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles and 450...

Wir liefern erste Schätzungen über die zusätzlichen Waffen und Truppen, die Europa zur Selbstverteidigung benötigen würde, falls sich die USA aus Europa zurückziehen. Die russische Militärproduktion wurde hochgefahren: Es wurden schätzungsweise 1.550 Panzer, 5.700 gepanzerte Fahrzeuge...

Hintergrund der Studie und Datengrundlage: - Die russische Invasion der Ukraine hat seit dem 24. Februar 2022 eine massive Fluchtbewegung ausgelöst, bei der überwiegend Frauen und Kinder in europäische Länder, einschließlich Deutschland, geflüchtet sind. Rund eine Million Menschen aus der...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to...

Aim: Sustainability financing is a promising instrument for the recovery of Ukrainian agriculture during and after the war, particularly in light of Ukraine’s closer integration with the European Union. This study is the first of its kind to assess the opportunities for establishing...

Die Ukraine hindert Russland seit drei Jahren daran, seinen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg siegreich zu beenden. Über lange Phasen des Krieges befanden sich die Konfliktparteien in einem militärischen und diplomatischen Patt. Nun hat US-Präsident Donald Trump sich mit dem Aggressor...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

• Durch die Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern kann die EU-Klimapolitik die Finanzkraft Russlands deutlich verringern und damit dessen militärische Fähigkeiten zur Fortführung der Aggression gegen die Ukraine und darüber hinaus einschränken. • Wir liefern...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

Empirical models of trade agreements implicitly assume that withdrawal from a trade agreement has an equal and opposite trade effect as accession, i.e., symmetry. With increasing opposition to international economic cooperation, it becomes urgent to test this assumption. We analyze a...

According to the US government, the Russian government is developing a programme to arm some of its satellites with nuclear warheads. Should the Kremlin acquire this capability, it could destroy key parts of the civilian satellite infrastructure by detonating a single nuclear weapon in low Earth...

More than three years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, some of its global spillover effects continue to impact many low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs). As the world faces new global shocks - such as aid cuts and rising US tariffs - this synthesis report...

Securing access to critical raw materials has become a top priority for governments worldwide, particularly in light of geopolitical disruptions and increasing demand for materials essential to the green transition and advanced technologies. Ukraine holds substantial reserves of key raw...

This report takes stock of international support for Ukraine. It is based on almost 3 years of data collection from the Ukraine Support Tracker, stretching from January 22nd, 2022 to December 31st, 2024. Over the past 3 years, Ukraine has received a low but steady inflow of foreign aid, with...

The development of export-import activity at all levels of the national economic system is an important factor and the result of globalization and country integration in the world economy. The elaboration of sound public policy related to export-import activity is based on its assessment and...

This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee...

This paper examines the rapid adoption of digital technologies by Ukrainian agroholdings, highlighting the transformative potential of agrifood digitainability, where digital innovation and sustainability intersect within agricultural practices through diverse stakeholder collaborations. We...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump's second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The objective of this research synthesis is to collect and summarize the research literature on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland. This is done through a systematic review, mostly in the form of a narrative review and with statistical indicators that are synthesized. A graphical summary...

Die existentielle Not der Menschen im Gazastreifen prägt derzeit außen- und sicherheitspolitische Debatten. Dort ist die Lage der Zivilbevölkerung besonders dramatisch. Doch auch anderswo - von der Ukraine über Sudan und Myanmar bis zur Demokratischen Republik Kongo und Haiti - haben Kriege...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid- 2024, the experiments reached nearly 10,000...

Does shareholder visibility affect firms' prosocial behavior? What implications for other shareholders? Exploiting quasi-experimental variation from media coverage around Annual General Meetings and major crises (COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine), we show that prominent...

Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat deutlich gemacht, wie wichtig weltraumbasierte Kommunikations- und Aufklärungsdienste für die eigene Verteidigung sind. Europa baut seine Verteidigungsfähigkeiten aus und investiert vermehrt in Weltraumfähigkeiten, hinkt jedoch, was Letztere angeht, im weltweiten...

The existential catastrophe faced by the population of the Gaza Strip currently looms large in the foreign policy and security debates. The plight of civilians there is particularly acute. Yet, severe crises persist elsewhere too - from Ukraine and Sudan to Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of...

Background to the study and data Basis: - The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive refugee movement since February 24, 2022, with mostly women and children fleeing to European countries, including Germany. Around one million people from Ukraine have now been living in Germany for...

Bellicose theories of state-building suggest that wars enable the emergence of strong states via the mechanism of increased war-time fiscal capacities. We explore the hitherto littleanalysed micro-level foundations of this claim. Does the experience of war increase public support for higher...

The Russian aggression forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes in search of safety outside Ukraine. Europe took most of the refugees – 6.3 million out of almost 7 million recorded globally. In this context, the return of millions of refugees to Ukraine will largely determine its...

Trotz katastrophaler Verluste könnte die Ukraine eine wichtige Rolle in Europa spielen. Die Armee, die Zivilgesellschaft und die Behörden, unterstützt von ausländischen Verbündeten, stellen sich trotz allem weiterhin einem übermächtigen Feind entgegen. Die Ukraine will mit allen Mitteln...

In this working paper I focus on the critical demographic situation in Ukraine caused by the 2022 Russian invasion, which threatens the prospects of post-war recovery and socio- economic revival. By and large, I argue for the need to develop and implement nationwide repatriation programmes...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from 3 experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion. Conducted between 2023 and 2024, the experiments reached 10,000 students across Ukraine. The program...

Refugees' decisions to return after conflict carry significant political and economic implications for the origin and host countries. We examine how conflict resolution, security, economic conditions, and corruption influence return decisions. To estimate the causal effect of post-war...

Does shareholder visibility affect firms' prosocial behavior? What implications for other shareholders? Exploiting quasi-experimental variation from media coverage around Annual General Meetings and major crises (COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine), we show that prominent...

The article studies relations arising in connection with the use of gig contracts when working with remote workers / gig specialists within the framework of the gig economy. Therefore, the aim of the study is to determine the legal nature of gig contracts, identify their advantages and...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid-2024, the experiments reached nearly 10,000...

The member states of the European Union are once again arguing about money. More specifically, they are arguing about how much they want to spend on defence, where this money should come from and whether they should spend it jointly. That Europe needs to defend itself better is not in dispute in...

Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat deutlich gemacht, wie wichtig weltraumbasierte Kommunikations- und Aufklärungsdienste für die eigene Verteidigung sind. Europa baut seine Verteidigungs­fähigkeiten aus und inves­tiert vermehrt in Weltraumfähigkeiten, hinkt jedoch, was Letztere angeht, im...

The existential catastrophe faced by the population of the Gaza Strip currently looms large in the foreign policy and security debates. The plight of civilians there is par­ticularly acute. Yet, severe crises persist elsewhere too - from Ukraine and Sudan to Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of...

This joint study by the SWP and the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM, Paris) starts from the premise that Ukraine’s and Russia’s visions of European security are fundamentally incompatible. Ukraine aims to join existing Western structures and contribute to their reinforcement, whereas...

We develop a novel, scalable method for assessing the quality of public procurement systems using standard administrative data. Our approach compares the distribution of procurement opportunities to the distribution of contract awards across firms. We first derive a simple theoretical benchmark...