We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable New Key-nesian DSGE-model with an emission externality. Empirically, emissions are strongly pro-cyclical and output in the flexible price equilibrium overreacts to productivity shocks, relative to the efficient allocation. At the same...

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment rate, inflation rate and economic output in Britain over 34 years. It utilizes a range of different time series techniques, including the ADF and PP unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag model to cointegration (ARDL model)....

I produce novel evidence on worker reallocation across employers and between employment and nonemployment/unemployment for several European countries over the past two decades. I construct a dataset of monthly transition rates by developing a novel approach to measure them using cross-sectional...

This paper analyzes business cycle synchronization and the Phillips curve (PC) relationship in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies relative to the euro area. We find an overall increase in business cycle synchronicity, particularly among Euro adoption candidates, with...

This paper examines the phenomenon of inflation inertia in Türkiye focusing on its persistence and the role of interconnected price-setting behaviors. Utilizing monthly data from 2004 to 2024, the study applies a novel augmented Phillips Curve framework, integrating a Time-Varying Parameter...

We estimate the Phillips Curve using panel data to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips Curve for Spain. In recent years, inflation has become a puzzle for economists and monetary authorities and academic research has been more active suggesting many possible explanations to the inflation...

What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the contribution of structural shocks. We document how whimsical such a historical shock decomposition can be in standard vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We show that the...

Many central banks worldwide announce numerical inflation targets, typically ranging from zero to two percent in advanced economies and higher in developing countries. Historically, a significant gap existed between the inflation targets pursued by central banks and those recommended by academic...

Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...

Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices....

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...