Search Results - subject_exact:"Unemployment-inflation trade-off"

A simple method for estimating multiple natural rates simultaneously : estimation of Japan's potential output and natural foreign exchange rate

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616967

Wage dynamics, unemployment, and inflation: enhancing 4gm semi-structural model

Ramos-Veloza, Mario A.; Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617555

Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613446

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Why did inflation rise and fall in 2021-24? : channels and evidence from expectations

Reis, Ricardo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A tractable menu cost model with an aggregate markup drift

Munakata, Ko - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613744

Understanding post-pandemic inflation fluctuations : the commodity cost channel

Peersman, Gert - 2026

This paper employs a joint SVAR-IV model for the United States and the euro area to estimate the pass-through of energy and food commodity cost shocks to inflation. Exogenous commodity cost shocks - such as those triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine - had only a modest impact on...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592023

Understanding the inflation-output relationship across business cycle phases

Cardamone, Dario; De Santis, Roberto A. - 2026

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592690

Inflation persistence, the stability of money demand, and the natural rate of interest

Benati, Luca - 2026

Evidence since the XIX century shows that whereas the demand for M1 is uniformly stable (Benati, Lucas, Nicolini, and Weber, 2021), the demand for broader aggregates is stable under monetary regimes making inflation strongly mean-reverting-such as the Gold Standard and inflation-targeting-but it...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604527

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam

Hung, Trinh Phuc; Vasilev, Aleksandar - 2026

This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 - 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604707

Aging and the price level : irreversible capital, demographic transitions, and the shifting phillips curve

Deng, Yongheng; Inoue, Tomoo; Nishimura, Kiyohiko; … - 2026 - This Draft: March 26, 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620220

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626903

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Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Imperfect information, composition of demand shocks, and the flattening of the Phillips curve

Okuda, Tatsushi; Tsuruga, Tomohiro; Zanetti, Francesco - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inflation inattention and the consumption gap

Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Ferlaino, Francesco; Serpieri, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638015

Do AI expectations reduce unemployment in the United States? : evidence from an AI attention index

Akyildirim, Erdinc; Bekci, Suzan; Gozgor, Giray - 2026 - This version: May 2, 2026

This paper constructs an AI Attention Index from LexisNexis news coverage and embeds it within an augmented Phillips curve framework. It then examines the relationship between AI attention and unemployment in the United States using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2025. We find that...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639130

Monetary policy in the Euro Area, when Philips curves ... are curves

Ascari, Guido; Carrier, Alexandre; Gasteiger, Emanuele; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640484

Sticky prices and constraints to produce

Markauskas, Justinas; Ravn, Morten O.; Ríos-Rull, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653798

Structural persistence of Brazil's inflation rate in times of fiscal bubbles

Marques, André de Mattos - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633256

Revisiting Thailand's Phillips Curves : a granular panel data approach

Chantaraboontha, Arisa - 2026

This paper employs disaggregated panel data to examine the evolution of Thailand's Phillips Curve (PC) before and during the pandemic, providing empirical evidence on the nature of Thai inflation dynamics and their implications for optimal monetary policy formulation. Utilizing the real output...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633359

From micro filters to the macro slope

Kara, Engin - 2026

Sticky-price firms do not merely underreact to ambiguous competitor prices - they actively lean against them. Above an inflation threshold, signals clear and firms reverse to follow. Existing information-friction models restrict weights between zero and one, ruling out this negative...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635669

From Volcker to the pandemic era: history dependent anchoring of short-run expected inflation

Jørgensen, Peter Lihn; Lansing, Kevin J. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636749

Sticky prices for inflationary economies : a tractable linear approximation to menu cost models with trend inflation

Adams, Jonathan - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636939

The emergence of wage-price spirals : implications for monetary policy response

Boymatova, Mushtariy - 2026

This paper examines the interaction between nominal wage dynamics and consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan, with the aim of assessing the risk of wage-price spirals in an emerging market context. Using quarterly data covering the period from 2007 to 2025, the analysis investigates whether wage...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637319

Forecasting inflation : the sum of the cycles outperforms the whole

Verona, Fabio - 2026

Inflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015560827

The awakening of inflation and the return of the Phillips curve in the euro area

Neri, Stefano; Conflitti, Cristina; Lin, Alessandro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668288

Labour market flows, unemployment and the Phillips curve

Kharroubi, Enisse; Koechlin, Marius - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668208

The strength of the inflation-output link in China

Juselius, Mikael; Li, Wenzhe - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668360

Unexpecting the expected in real-time inflation forecasting : the inflation expectations channel?

Bonino-Gayoso, Nicolás; Correa-López, Mónica - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669993

The role of global inflation in estimation of US output components in the post Bretton Woods era : evidence from multivariate unobserved components models

Basistha, Arabinda - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015673661

The micro-aggregate Phillips curve

Aglio, Daniele; Bartelsman, Eric J. - 2026

This paper provides theory and evidence on micro-level pricing behavior needed to model an aggregate New Keynesian Phillips Curve. We start with individual firms that are heterogeneous in their production technology and in the demand curves they face. We estimate the parameters of supply and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675397

Unobservable no more : estimating the natural rate of interest under flat IS and Phillips curves

Fiorentini, Gabriele; Galesi, Alessandro; Peña, Rodrigo; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015675314

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Unobservable no more : estimating the natural rate of interest under flat is and phillips curves

Fiorentini, Gabriele; Galesi, Alessandro; Peña, Rodrigo; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Micro and macro cost-price dynamics in normal times and during inflation surges

Gagliardone, Luca; Gertler, Mark; Lenzu, Simone; … - 2026

We develop a unified approach to studying cost-price dynamics in the cross-section of firms in order to jointly explain the time series of aggregate inflation and the frequency of price changes, both during normal times and inflation surges. A key novelty is the use of microdata on firms' prices...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644221

The propagation of shocks across the production network and implications for monetary policy

Gebauer, Stefan; Nakov, Anton; Nuño, Galo; Osbat, Chiara; … - 2026

The repeated occurrence of supply-chain disruptions since the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the need to complement traditional macroeconomic frameworks with approaches that better capture the complexity of modern economic productionstructures. This paper synthesises the findings of the ChaMP...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061029

Domestic and cyclical inflation in the euro area

Bodnár, Katalin; Fagandini, Bruno; Healy, Peter; … - 2026

The ECB's inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation. However, domestically determined inflation features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism and in gauging underlying inflation, making it important to assess it regularly. The ECB monitors various proxies...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072459

Demographic shifts and inflation dynamics in African economies

Mwakalila, Enock - 2026

This paper examines how demographic structure shapes inflation dynamics in African economies beyond the traditional Phillips Curve framework. Using panel data for African countries over 1995-2024 (with an estimation sample of 47), and System GMM estimation, we analyze how the shares of the youth...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072764

Fixing the Phillips curve: implications of firms' monopsonistic wage-setting for inflation dynamics

Kurozumi, Takushi; Van Zandweghe, Willem - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072996

How curvy is the Phillips curve?

Bunn, Philip; Anayi, Lena; Barnes, Emily; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016062676

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How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?

Bunn, Philip; Anayi, Lena; Bloom, Nicholas; Mizen, Paul; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

What drives exchange rate pass-throughs? : evidence from a non-parametric method

Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Mehrotra, Aaron N. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083756

Menu costs and asymmetric price adjustment

Ellingsen, Tore; Friberg, Richard; Hassler, John - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083355

Productivity and inflation dynamics

Ambrosino, Ludovica; Chan, Jenny; Tenreyro, Silvana - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016081616

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Productivity and inflation dynamics

Ambrosino, Maria Ludovica; Chan, Jenny; Tenreyro, Silvana - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary policy with endogenous aggregate productivity and misallocation

Hannikainen, Lauri - 2026

Standard New Keynesian models treat aggregate total factor productivity as exogenous to monetary policy. This paper studies optimal monetary policy in the four-equation New Keynesian model of Baqaee, Farhi, and Sangani (2024), in which monetary expansions reallocate resources toward high-markup...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072262

The micro-aggregated Phillips Curve

Aglio, Daniele; Bartelsman, Eric J. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069278

Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546311

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Pandemic and war inflation : lessons from the international experience

Lipínska, Anna; Martínez-García, Enrique; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Inflation expectations and inflation modelling: the case of Trinidad and Tobago

Nelson, Andell; Persad, Nikkita - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546919

From waves to rates : enhancing inflation forecasts through combinations of frequency-domain models

Verona, Fabio - 2025

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015164409

Analysing the relationship between unemployment rate, inflation rate, and the effect they have on gross domestic product in the United Kingdom (1990-2023)

Pavlov, Lachezar; Vasilev, Aleksandar - 2025

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment rate, inflation rate and economic output in Britain over 34 years. It utilizes a range of different time series techniques, including the ADF and PP unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag model to cointegration (ARDL model)....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015202685

Employer-to-employer mobility and wages in Europe and the United States

Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel - 2025

I produce novel evidence on worker reallocation across employers and between employment and nonemployment/unemployment for several European countries over the past two decades. I construct a dataset of monthly transition rates by developing a novel approach to measure them using cross-sectional...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015206800

State-dependent Phillips Curve

Kim, Hyun Hak; Lee, Na Kyeong - 2025

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015206817

Nonlinear estimation of a New Keynesian model with endogenous inflation de-anchoring

Hecker, Dominik; Wolters, Maik H. - 2025

We estimate a New Keynesian model that allows endogenous transitions between a target equilibrium, with inflation fluctuating around the central bank's target and interest rates typically positive, and a low-inflation equilibrium, where the effective lower bound binds and de-anchored...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548895

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