This paper uses a non-linear dynamic factor model to investigate the innovation convergence dynamics across US states from 1992 to 2020. Our results indicate that multiple innovation clubs exist within the US, and the heterogeneity between those clusters is increasing over time. Moreover, we...

We construct two new large-scale datasets to measure relative and upward educational mobility by sex, race, class, and childhood county of residence for cohorts born in 1910-1919 and 1982-1997. We show that both relative and upward educational mobility rose over the 20th century, with...

Space capabilities are a core element of any modern defence arsenal. In Europe, however, military space capabilities are limited and dependence on the United States remains high. Europe must develop its capabilities in order to reduce dependencies and enhance its capacity to act on its own,...

The higher turnout in Iraq's recent parliamentary elections reflects advances over the past four years, notably in infrastructure development, security, and political stability. The election's outcome and ensuing coalition-building dynamics underscore trends and challenges that will shape Iraq's...

The higher turnout in Iraq’s recent parliamentary elections reflects advances over the past four years, notably in infrastructure development, security, and political stability. The election’s outcome and ensuing coalition-building dynamics underscore trends and challenges that will shape...

Space capabilities are a core element of any modern defence arsenal. In Europe, how­ever, military space capabilities are limited and dependence on the United States remains high. Europe must develop its capabilities in order to reduce dependencies and enhance its capacity to act on its own,...

Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of...

The prominence of Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) has grown particularly dramatically in recent years, prompting countries to enact policies aimed at fostering wider EPC adoption and backing up the growth of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs). However, the effectiveness of these overarching...

This paper analyzes heterogeneity in post-pandemic labor market adjustment across industries, contrasting healthcare and social assistance with leisure and hospitality. Using CPS monthly microdata (2015-2023), JOLTS separations, and LEHD Jobto-Job flows, we estimate sector-specific...

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at...

• Die US-Zölle von 2025 sind ein Eigentor: Amerikanische Importeure und Verbraucher tragen nahezu die gesamten Kosten. Ausländische Exporteure absorbieren nur etwa 4% der Zolllast - die restlichen 96% werden an US-Käufer weitergegeben. • Auf Basis von Lieferungsdaten mit über 25...

Quality ratings are useful when they capture important and durable aspects of overall performance. They are less useful (and can be misleading) when they are excessively volatile, particularly if volatility is not the result of facility-specific performance. We study the volatility of the...

Many instrumental variables applications specify a single Bernoulli treatment. But instruments may change outcomes through multiple pathways or by varying treatment intensity. Lottery instruments that boost charter school enrollment, for instance, may affect outcomes by lengthening time enrolled...

In this paper, we present the empirical methodology used to estimate the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Income Poverty (LIMTIP) for the United States over the period 2007-2022. We provide a step-by-step account of the statistical matching procedure employed to construct a synthetic dataset...

This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe...

This study investigates credit unions' expansion into non-core lending and its association with risk and financial resilience. Using US credit union call report data from 1994 to 2024, we measure the share of purchased loans, lease receivables, and loans held for sale in non-core lending. We...

This paper analyses the strategic visions of the European Union and the United States of America concerning the Black Sea region, with a focus on recent policy frameworks such as the European Commission's Strategic Approach to the Black Sea (2025) and the U.S. legislation Black Sea Security Act...

Access to the labor market is crucial for the economic integration of asylum seekers. This study estimates the causal impact of work authorization timing on the labor market outcomes of likely asylum seekers. We link USCIS administrative records with American Community Survey microdata and use...

Using 33 years of intraday Treasury data, we provide the first high-frequency evidence on auction-day price pressure: yields rise in the hours before auction and reverse afterward. This pressure strengthens when dealers face tighter risk-bearing constraints and weakens when investor demand is...

The educational distribution of U.S. immigrants shifted significantly to the right in recent decades as the share without a high school diploma fell and the share with a bachelor's degree rose. This improvement coincided with a shift in immigrants' origins toward Asia and rising global education...

Alzheimer's disease (AD) disproportionately burdens racial and ethnic minority populations, yet the extent to which US clinical trials reflect this burden remains poorly understood. We conduct a systematic review of all 88 completed US-based Phase III AD drug trials between 1997 and 2023, using...

The educational distribution of U.S. immigrants shifted significantly to the right in recent decades as the share without a high school diploma fell and the share with a bachelor's degrees rose. This improvement coincided with a shift in immigrants' origins toward Asia and rising global...

This study examines the extent to which market size disparity across franchises - measured as the coefficient of variation of MSA populations - moderates the effectiveness of competitive balance interventions (CBIs) in Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Football League (NFL), the National...

US defence policy is characterised by contradictions that are on display once again in the Trump administration’s latest strategy documents. The reasons for this go far beyond the president’s erratic behaviour. At the core lies the unanswered question of how the United States should deal...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

We provide causal evidence that immigration has contributed to the polarization of American politics. Using an ancestry-based shift-share instrument, we study immigration flows into U.S. counties between 1992 and 2016. Counties exposed to larger immigrant inflows become more polarized both in...

Do factual immigration updates shift societal concerns across political ideologies? Conducting an online experiment in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, respondents provided local immigrant stock and flow estimates before being randomized to receive realistic information on...

Worker productivity depends not only on hours worked, but also on how work time is actually used, and time-use evidence shows that non-work at work is non-trivial. This paper provides a data-driven characterization of shirking, and studies which observable characteristics best predict shirking...

Die Studie simuliert mit Hilfe des CGE-Modells des HWWI die kurzfristigen Folgen des aktuellen US-Zollregimes (Stand Herbst/Winter 2025) für Hamburg. Aggregiert bleiben BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland, der EU und Hamburg nahe null, während die USA in ein stagflationäres Umfeld geraten....