The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model1 , a...

In contrast to most Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, Central Asia (CA) - comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - has witnessed quite robust demographic as well as economic growth in the period from 2019 to 2024. This period was...

This study investigates the application of Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models for inflation forecasting. FAVAR models deal with high-dimensional data by extracting latent factors from extensive macroeconomic indicators, while BVAR...

Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China - an established player in the market - it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi...

This study explores the socio-economic impacts of ecotourism on local employment and income in the rural areas of Samarkand, Uzbekistan. By surveying 167 participants, including stakeholders involved in ecotourism and local community members, the research investigates the contributions of...

The government of Uzbekistan engaged the World Bank and partners to support the development of a National Health System Strategy for Uzbekistan. This document presents a series of interconnected outputs from this process, namely: (i) the Background Papers, eight of which focus on a single...

Uzbekistan's economic story over the past seven years is a captivating one of transition and reform; however, the country is not yet enjoying the full economic returns from these efforts. This report shows how to spur faster growth by improving the functioning of domestic markets and their...

At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9-20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the...

Forecasting banking system liquidity is crucial for the effective monetary policy implementation. This study investigates the effectiveness of various econometric and machine learning models in predicting the autonomous factors of banking system liquidity. The research compares widely used...

Der russische Krieg gegen die Ukraine und die geopolitischen Verschiebungen auf dem eurasischen Kontinent haben Zentralasien wieder verstärkt in den Fokus Deutschlands und der EU gerückt. Die strategische Regionalpartnerschaft der Bundesrepublik mit Zentralasien, die im vergangenen Herbst...

This study delves into the nuanced realm of medical geography, focusing on the intricate interplay between geographical factors and public health outcomes in the Samarkand and Navoi regions of Uzbekistan. Over the decades, the field of medical geography has evolved, embracing a holistic...

A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in conducting a major revision of national accounts time series. Based on the results of the 2023 survey on non-observed economy (NOE) in hotels, restaurants, and other services,...

A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in conducting a major revision of national accounts time series. Based on the results of the 2023 survey on non-observed economy (NOE) in hotels, restaurants, and other services,...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen...

In Zentralasien verfolgen insbesondere Kasachstan und Usbekistan immer ambitioniertere Ziele mit Blick auf erneuerbare Energien. Neben China als etabliertem Akteur sind es vor allem einzelne Golfstaaten, insbesondere Saudi-Arabien, teils auch die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE), die...

In Zentralasien verfolgen insbesondere Kasachstan und Usbekistan immer ambitioniertere Ziele mit Blick auf erneuerbare Energien. Neben China als etabliertem Akteur sind es vor allem einzelne Golfstaaten, insbesondere Saudi-Arabien, teils auch die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE), die...

Adapting to climate change under different agro-ecologies of Central Asian countries still remains a matter of debate. The present study aimed to explore the perceptions and key factors influencing adaptation strategies through the stepwise appraisal framework in upstream zones of the Zerafshan...

Uzbekistan’s growth momentum continues on the back of far-reaching structural reforms to liberalize its economy, favorable commodity prices, and notable increases in financial and income flows. Leveraging the remarkable progress that has been achieved in the last seven years, the authorities...

The development of cross-border tourism between neighboring countries has become increasingly popular in recent decades. In European countries where the visa-free regime is established, this scheme is well developed and positively affects the development of the country's economy. Developing...

Russia's war against Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts on the Eurasian continent have brought Central Asia back into the focus of Germany and the EU. Germany's strategic regional partnership with Central Asia, which was announced last autumn, offers promising potential for cooperation....

Islamic finance (IF) holds significant potential for economic development and the enhancement of financial inclusion in Uzbekistan. Sukuk, as a key Islamic capital market instrument and Shari'ah-compliant investment alternative, plays an important role in this context. However, the demand for...

Der russische Krieg gegen die Ukraine und die geopolitischen Verschiebungen auf dem eurasischen Kontinent haben Zentralasien wieder verstärkt in den Fokus Deutschlands und der EU gerückt. Die strategische Regionalpartnerschaft der Bun­desrepublik mit Zentralasien, die im vergangenen Herbst...

Across the globe countries are looking to cut greenhouse gas emissions to reach carbon neutrality and combat climate change. But doing so can be complicated. Countries are putting a price on carbon emissions (or carbon equivalents for other gases). In a landmark pilot in Uzbekistan, the World...

Addressing gender gaps is critical to the success of Uzbekistan's inclusive transformation. Uzbekistan's national income would be about 29 percent higher if women were to participate in equal measure to men. If working women were simply to catch up to the wages earned by men, the increased...

This Guidance Note serves to support the government of Uzbekistan in the design of a national Green Taxonomy. A green taxonomy sets out rules for classifying environmentally sustainable activities and can be instrumental inthe transition to a Green Economy by guiding policies and public resource...

Land use plays a pivotal role in Uzbekistan's development, and embracing sustainable agriculture offers a promising pathway to achieving middle-income status. This report aims to identify hotspots of land degradation and declining productivity along with areas of adaptation opportunity where...

The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private...

Using the time series statistical data of Uzbekistan and VAR framework, we made an attempt to investigate the relationship between the key macroeconomic tools of maintaining macroeconomic stability: inflation and unemployment. Our empirical findings showed that unemployment rate and inflation...

Employing novel household survey data, this paper examines how rainfall variability and mean temperature affect individual labor supply in Uzbekistan, a highly traditional lower-middle-income country in Central Asia. The findings suggest that rainfall variability induces the reallocation of...

The article analyzes the legal problems in the implementation of international labour standards on the abolition of forced labour in the national legislation of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Fundamental documents of the International Labour Organization on the abolition of forced labour – the...

School closures induced by the COVID-19 pandemic led to concerns about student learning. This paper evaluates the effect of school closures on student learning in Uzbekistan, using a unique dataset that allows assessing change in learning over time. The findings show that test scores in math for...