We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...

This paper establishes an economic theory of information value and volume that differs from Shannon’s mathematical theory of communication (Shannon, 1948). The economics of information should be recognized as an important frontier field of economics to explore the 4th industrial revolution...

This is the first study that analyzes the predictive ability of deferred tax information under IFRS. I examine whether deferred taxes provide information about future tax payments and future performance, using a German sample of IFRS firms. The focus on tax loss carryforwards enables a...

This paper establishes an economic theory of information value and volume that differs from Shannon's mathematical theory of communication (Shannon, 1948). The economics of information should be recognized as an important frontier field of economics to explore the 4th industrial revolution...

This paper challenges recent results on the fragility of the value of commitment. It introduces a specific notion of the 'value of information' for a later-moving player about the action choice of a previously-moving player, gives conditions under which this value is positive and shows that a...

Pesticides, while rendering immense agricultural benefits, potentially entail risks to human health and the environment. To limit these risks, market approval of a pesticide is typically conditional on an extensive risk assessment demonstrating its safety. The associated testing procedures,...

Pestizide ermöglichen der Landwirtschaft gesteigerte Erträge, sie bergen jedoch auch Risiken für die menschliche Gesundheit und die Umwelt. Um diese Risiken zu begrenzen, müssen sie in einem Risikobewertungsverfahren ihre Sicherheit nachweisen, bevor sie zugelassen werden können. Die...

Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the...

Foreword: the bright side of social media / Ashesh Mukherjee -- Foreword: the dark side of social media / Leyland Pitt -- A framework for the dark side of social media -- A framework for the dark side of social media : from digital drama to digital over-engagement / Angeline Close Scheinbaum --...

Why monetize information -- Top ways to monetize information -- Methods for monetizing information -- Analytics: the engine of information monetization -- Information management maturity and principles -- Information supply chains and ecosystems -- Leveraging asset management standards and...

Optimal age replacement policies for network components such as cables, overhead lines or transformers are usually identified based on gathered knowledge about the state of a component and its stochastic deterioration process. In this context, uncertainty is an important challenge because...

Background: his paper presents a case study on 100Credit, an Internet credit service provider in China. 100Credit began as an IT company specializing in e-commerce recommendation before getting into the credit rating business. The company makes use of Big Data on multiple aspects of individuals'...

An ambiguous statistical experiment is a set of joint probability distributions over states and signals. This note compares ambiguous experiments from the point of view of an ambiguity averse decision maker and extends the Blackwell (1951, 1953) ordering to this setting.

An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the...

This paper introduces a Divisia monetary aggregate for Germany and explores its information content for the Great Recession. Divisia money and the corresponding simple sum aggregate are highly correlated in normal times but begin to diverge before the crisis. Out of sample forecast analysis and...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...

The value of information regarding risk class for a monopoly insurer and its customers is examined in both symmetric and asymmetric information environments. A monopolist always prefers contracting with uninformed customers as this maximizes the rent extracted under symmetric information while...

We develop a novel argument why better public information can help countries to insure against idiosyncratic risk. Representative agents of developing and industrial countries receive public and private signals on their future income realization and engage in risk-sharing contracts with limited...